Deep-Sea Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals: Global Landscape and India’s Strategic Role

Deep-sea rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals like cobalt, nickel, and manganese, found in polymetallic nodules and other seabed deposits, are vital for clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), technology, and defense. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), Indian Ocean, and Arctic hold an estimated 21 billion tonnes of nodules, with REEs constituting 1–2% of this mass. China leads the global race with five International Seabed Authority (ISA) contracts, followed by Russia, Norway, Japan, and emerging player India, while the USA, France, and Germany lag due to regulatory or environmental constraints. By 2030, commercial mining could extract 3–10 million tonnes annually (100,000–500,000 tonnes REEs), with a market value of £12–20 billion. Global investments of $3–5 billion are projected to reach $10–20 billion by 2030, driven by demand for EVs (200 kg minerals per vehicle), renewables, and AI.

India, with four ISA contracts in the Indian Ocean, is scaling up through its Deep Ocean Mission ($500 million budget). By 2030, India aims to extract 100,000–200,000 tonnes of nodules annually (2,000–4,000 tonnes REEs), supported by $500 million–$1 billion in investments. However, technological gaps, funding shortages, environmental risks, and geopolitical tensions—especially with China—pose challenges. India must invest in R&D, processing plants, and alliances to succeed. Globally, geopolitical risks include China’s supply chain dominance, Arctic disputes, and US vulnerabilities, while environmental concerns could delay projects. Demand is set to triple by 2030, with EVs, wind turbines, and defense as top user segments. This report analyzes key players, India’s role, constraints, opportunities, and geopolitical implications, offering a roadmap for 2030.

---

1. Introduction

Deep-sea mining targets REEs and critical minerals in polymetallic nodules, seafloor massive sulfides, and cobalt-rich crusts at depths exceeding 600 feet. These resources are critical for high-tech industries and the global energy transition. This report examines their locations, global competition, estimated volumes, and geopolitical implications, with a special focus on India’s current efforts, 2025–2030 outlook, constraints, and strategic needs.

---

2. Global Landscape of Deep-Sea Rare Earths and Critical Minerals

2.1 Locations

Deep-sea deposits are found in international waters (managed by the ISA) and national exclusive economic zones (EEZs):

• Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ): Pacific Ocean, 21 billion tonnes of nodules (manganese, nickel, cobalt, REEs).
• Peru Basin: Southeastern Pacific, nodule-rich.
• Penrhyn Basin: Near Cook Islands, cobalt and nickel.
• Indian Ocean: Carlsberg Ridge, nodules and sulfides.
• Arctic Ocean: Nickel, zinc, REEs (exploration limited).
• EEZs: Japan (Minami-Torishima), Norway (Norwegian Sea), Cook Islands.

Table 1: Major Deep-Sea Mineral Locations and Estimated Resources

Region	Deposit Type	Estimated Volume	Key Minerals
Clarion-Clipperton Zone	Polymetallic Nodules	21 billion tonnes	Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, REEs
Peru Basin	Nodules	1–2 billion tonnes	Mn, Ni, Co
Penrhyn Basin	Nodules	500 million tonnes	Co, Ni, REEs
Indian Ocean (CIOB)	Nodules, Sulfides	1.5 billion tonnes	Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, REEs
Arctic Ocean	Sulfides, Crusts	Unknown (early stage)	Ni, Zn, REEs

2.2 Countries Racing Ahead

Key players include:

• China: Five ISA contracts (92,000 sq. miles), advanced robotics.
• Russia: CCZ and Arctic contracts, targeting 10% of global REEs by 2030.
• Norway: EEZ mining by 2025, copper and cobalt focus.
• Japan: EEZ and CCZ contracts, pilot successes.
• Canada: Private firms (e.g., The Metals Company) in CCZ.
• South Korea: Technology-driven, ISA contracts.
• India: Four ISA contracts, Indian Ocean focus.
• France, Germany, USA: Limited by regulations or environmental policies.

Table 2: Leading Countries in Deep-Sea Mining (2025)

Country	ISA Contracts	Key Regions	Investment ($M)	Technology Level
China	5	CCZ, Indian Ocean	1,000–2,000	Advanced
Russia	3	CCZ, Arctic	500–1,000	Moderate
Norway	1	Norwegian Sea (EEZ)	500	Advanced
Japan	2	CCZ, Minami-Torishima	300	Advanced
India	4	Indian Ocean (CIOB)	200–300	Developing
Canada	2	CCZ	200	Moderate
USA	0	EEZ (Hawaii)	200–300	Developing
France	1	CCZ	50–100	Research-focused
Germany	1	CCZ	50–100	Research-focused

2.3 Estimated Resource Volumes

• CCZ: 21 billion tonnes of nodules (5.95B tonnes Mn, 270M tonnes Ni, 234M tonnes Cu, 46M tonnes Co, ~1–2% REEs).
• Global Seabed: Potential to supply 10% of global cobalt, copper, zinc by 2030 (market value: £8.4–12.3B).
• REE Estimates: Millions of tonnes globally, but commercial extraction may yield 100,000–500,000 tonnes annually by 2030.

Table 3: Estimated Mineral Volumes in CCZ (2025)

Mineral	Estimated Volume (Million Tonnes)	% of Nodule Mass
Manganese	5,950	28–30%
Nickel	270	1.3%
Copper	234	1.1%
Cobalt	46	0.2%
REEs (combined)	210–420	1–2%

2.4 Status Today and in 2030

• 2025: Exploration phase, no commercial mining. China leads, with $3–5B global investment.
• 2030: 3–10M tonnes extracted annually (100,000–500,000 tonnes REEs). China may dominate (30–40% share), followed by Norway, Japan, Canada, and India.

---

3. Country-Specific Analysis

3.1 China

• Status: Five ISA contracts, advanced robotics (e.g., Jinhang Group). Controls 60% of global REE production.
• 2030 Outlook: 1–2M tonnes of nodules annually, 20–30% of deep-sea supply.
• Investment: $1–2B (2025), $3–5B (2030).
• Strengths: Technology, ISA influence, integration.
• Weaknesses: Environmental criticism, maritime disputes.

3.2 Russia

• Status: CCZ and Arctic contracts, tax incentives.
• 2030 Outlook: 50,000–100,000 tonnes REEs, 10% global share.
• Investment: $500M–$1B (2025), $1–2B (2030).
• Strengths: Arctic resources, leverage.
• Weaknesses: Sanctions, environmental opposition.

3.3 India (Detailed in Section 4)

3.4 France

• Status: One ISA contract, environmental focus.
• 2030 Outlook: Minor player, 10,000–20,000 tonnes REEs (imports).
• Investment: $50–100M (2025), $100–200M (2030).
• Strengths: EU collaboration.
• Weaknesses: Limited mining ambition.

3.5 Germany

• Status: Research-driven, one ISA contract.
• 2030 Outlook: 5,000–10,000 tonnes REEs (recycling).
• Investment: $50–100M (2025), $100–150M (2030).
• Strengths: Processing tech.
• Weaknesses: Regulatory caution.

3.6 USA

• Status: No ISA contracts (non-UNCLOS), private-led.
• 2030 Outlook: 50,000–100,000 tonnes REEs (EEZ, allies).
• Investment: $200–300M (2025), $1–2B (2030).
• Strengths: Innovation, alliances.
• Weaknesses: Regulatory lag, China reliance.

3.7 Other Players

• Norway: EEZ mining by 2025, 200,000–500,000 tonnes by 2030 ($500M invested).
• Japan: EEZ and CCZ, 100,000–200,000 tonnes by 2030 ($300M).
• Canada: CCZ contracts, 100,000–300,000 tonnes by 2030 ($200M).

---

4. Special Focus: India’s Deep-Sea Mining Efforts

4.1 Current Status (2025)

India aims to secure critical minerals to support its EV, renewable, and tech sectors. Key efforts include:

• ISA Contracts: Four contracts (225,000 sq. km) in the Central Indian Ocean Basin (CIOB).
• Deep Ocean Mission: ₹4,077 crore ($500M) budget for exploration, manned submersibles (Samudrayaan), and mining tech.
• Technology: NIOT’s ROSHINI ROV tested at 5,270 meters; 1.5-tonne nodule trial in 2023.
• Production: 1% of global REEs (2,900 tonnes), 95% import reliance.
• Collaborations: Japan, South Korea for tech; ISA advocacy.

Table 4: India’s Deep-Sea Mining Snapshot (2025)

Aspect	Details
ISA Contracts	4 (225,000 sq. km, CIOB)
Investment	$200–300M
Key Agency	NIOT, Ministry of Earth Sciences
Technology	ROSHINI ROV, Samudrayaan submersible
Trial Extraction	1.5 tonnes (2023)
REE Production (Total)	2,900 tonnes (1% global)

4.2 Outlook for 2025–2030

• Extraction: 100,000–200,000 tonnes of nodules by 2030 (2,000–4,000 tonnes REEs, 20,000–40,000 tonnes Co, Ni, Cu).
• Infrastructure: Two mining vessels ($400–600M), pilot processing plant ($100–150M).
• Investment: $500M–$1B, with 30% from private sector.
• Policy: Deep-sea mining policy by 2026, ISA code advocacy.
• Impact: 5–10% of India’s mineral supply, $100–200M in exports.

Table 5: India’s Projected Deep-Sea Mining Output (2030)

Mineral	Annual Output (Tonnes)	Market Value ($M)
Nodules (Total)	100,000–200,000	50–100
REEs	2,000–4,000	20–40
Cobalt	5,000–10,000	10–20
Nickel	10,000–20,000	15–30
Copper	5,000–10,000	5–10

4.3 Key Constraints

1. Technology: Limited ROVs, no scalable mining systems, weak processing tech.
2. Funding: $1–2B per project exceeds current $200–300M; private investment low.
3. Environment: Sediment plumes, habitat risks; NGO and community opposition.
4. Skills: Only 200–300 specialists; training programs inadequate.
5. Geopolitics: China’s ISA dominance, equipment reliance.
6. Domestic: Bureaucracy, corruption, terrestrial mining competition.

4.4 Actions Needed

1. R&D: $200–300M for ROVs, collectors; collaborate with Japan/Norway.
2. Funding: $500M annually, tax incentives for PPPs, $1B FDI.
3. Processing: Two plants ($100–150M each) for 50,000 tonnes/year.
4. Environment: Transparent EIAs, $50M for restoration.
5. Skills: Train 1,000 specialists; Deep-Sea Mining Academy by 2027.
6. ISA Role: Push 2–4% royalties, align with Japan/Canada.
7. Governance: Dedicated authority by 2026, faster approvals.

4.5 Geopolitical Concerns and Threats

• China: Controls ISA, may limit India’s sites or flood markets. Equipment reliance risks disruptions.
• South China Sea: Chinese naval presence near Andaman and Nicobar could escalate tensions.
• Competition: Japan, South Korea may outpace India; small islands claim EEZ resources.
• West: US/EU environmental pressure could raise costs or limit exports.
• Domestic: Political instability, state-central disputes may delay projects.

---

5. Geopolitical Implications

• China’s Dominance: Controls 95% of REE supply, risks export bans (e.g., 2023 gallium restrictions).
• Russia: Arctic mining may provoke NATO; sanctions limit tech.
• USA: UNCLOS absence hampers influence; 70% REE imports from China.
• India: Indian Ocean leverage but risks Chinese interference.
• EU: Environmental push increases import reliance.
• Global Risks: Maritime disputes (South China Sea, Arctic), ISA regulatory gaps.

---

6. Investments

• Global (2025): $3–5B (China: $1–2B, Norway: $500M, Japan: $300M, India: $200–300M).
• Global (2030): $10–20B (China: $3–5B, India: $500M–$1B, USA: $1–2B).

Table 6: Global Investment in Deep-Sea Mining

Country	2025 ($M)	2030 ($M)
China	1,000–2,000	3,000–5,000
Russia	500–1,000	1,000–2,000
India	200–300	500–1,000
Norway	500	1,000–1,500
Japan	300	500–1,000
USA	200–300	1,000–2,000
France	50–100	100–200
Germany	50–100	100–150
Canada	200	500–1,000

---

7. Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

• Environment: Habitat loss, plumes; moratorium risks.
• Costs: $1–2B per project, volatile REE prices.
• Regulation: ISA code delays, US UNCLOS absence.
• Geopolitics: China’s control, maritime conflicts.
• Technology: India, Russia lag behind China/Japan.

Opportunities

• Resilience: Diversifies supply from China (85% refining).
• Economy: £12.3B market by 2030, 15,000 jobs.
• Innovation: Robotics, processing advances.
• Green Tech: Supports EVs (200 kg/vehicle), renewables.

---

8. Demand Forecast

• 2025: $400B market, 390,000 tonnes REEs (10% growth).
• 2030: $650–800B, 500,000–600,000 tonnes REEs (10–20% from deep-sea).
• Drivers: EVs (72% EU sales by 2030), wind turbines, AI chips.

Table 7: Projected REE Demand (2025–2030)

Year	Total Demand (Tonnes)	Deep-Sea Share (Tonnes)	Market Value ($B)
2025	390,000	0	400
2030	500,000–600,000	100,000–500,000	650–800

---

9. Top 10 User Segments

1. EVs (neodymium, 200 kg/battery)
2. Wind Turbines (dysprosium, 2 tonnes/MW)
3. Solar Panels (yttrium)
4. Defense (radar, missiles)
5. Electronics (lanthanum)
6. Semiconductors (gallium)
7. Medical (gadolinium)
8. Batteries (cobalt, nickel)
9. Aerospace (alloys)
10. Catalysts (cerium)

---

10. Conclusion

Deep-sea mining is a strategic frontier, with China leading and India emerging as a contender. India’s Deep Ocean Mission targets 100,000–200,000 tonnes of nodules by 2030, but technological, financial, and geopolitical hurdles remain. Globally, a $650–800B market awaits, driven by clean energy and tech, but environmental and regulatory risks loom. India must invest in R&D, processing, and alliances to secure its role, while navigating China’s dominance and regional tensions.

---

References

1. International Seabed Authority (ISA). (2025). Exploration Contracts and Resource Estimates. https://www.isa.org.jm/
2. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Critical Minerals Market Review 2024. https://www.iea.org/
3. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries: Rare Earths. https://www.usgs.gov/
4. Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. (2024). Deep Ocean Mission Progress Report. https://moes.gov.in/
5. National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT). (2023). Deep-Sea Exploration Trials. https://www.niot.res.in/
6. The Metals Company. (2025). CCZ Resource Estimates. https://metals.co/
7. BloombergNEF. (2024). Critical Minerals Outlook 2024–2030. https://about.bnef.com/
8. Reuters. (2024). China’s Deep-Sea Mining Investments. https://www.reuters.com/
9. Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. (2025). Seabed Minerals Strategy. https://www.npd.no/
10. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). (2024). Deep-Sea Mining Pilots. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/
11. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). (2025). Status and Implications. https://www.un.org/
12. Nature Journal. (2024). Environmental Impacts of Deep-Sea Mining. https://www.nature.com/
13. Financial Times. (2025). Geopolitics of Critical Minerals. https://www.ft.com/
14. Economic Times, India. (2024). India’s Deep-Sea Mining Plans. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/