Amit's Blog

The Vanishing Boom: Unraveling the Myths of Global Population Growth The United Nations' population projections have been systematically downgraded over four decades, as fertility rates collapse faster than predicted, exposing flaws in demographic modeling rooted in inaccurate data and underestimated socioeconomic drivers like income, education, urbanization, and contraception. Historical UN forecasts from 1980 (10.2 billion peak by 2100) to 2024 (10.3 billion in mid-2080s) reflect this, driven by rapid declines in East Asia, Europe, South America, and the Middle East. Comparisons of 2000 projections versus 2024 realities—e.g., South Korea's TFR at 0.92 vs. projected 1.75, Iran's 1.66 vs. 2.45—reveal overestimations across 15+ countries. Developing nations' compressed transitions (25-50 years vs. Europe's 100-150) accelerate this via technology, media, and policy. Correcting UN optimism, IHME models (9.7 billion peak in 2060s, 8.8 billion by 2100) emphasize educat...

Bangladesh: A Bay of Bengal Chessboard – Navigating Post-Hasina Geopolitics Bangladesh's political upheaval in August 2024, leading to Sheikh Hasina's ouster, has dramatically reshaped its geopolitical landscape. The nation, strategically located at the confluence of South and Southeast Asia, now finds itself at a crossroads. While the "mass uprising" wasn't a traditional military coup, the military's role in facilitating Hasina's exit and the establishment of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus has had coup-like implications. This shift has significantly disadvantaged India, a close ally of Hasina's government, while presenting an opportunistic window for China and Pakistan to expand their influence. The interim government is now navigating a complex foreign policy, balancing the need for Western financial support with existing Chinese debt and the imperative to manage regional relationships, particularly with a wary India and a volatile Myan...