Amit's Blog

Sudan’s Civil War: A Vortex of Power, Gold, and Proxy Games (2010–2025) Sudan’s civil war, erupting in April 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). Rooted in a power struggle following the 2019 ousting of Omar al-Bashir, the conflict has killed up to 150,000, displaced 12.3 million, and left 25 million facing hunger. Gold, fueling both sides through smuggling to the UAE, is a key driver, alongside ethnic tensions and foreign interference. The SAF, backed by Egypt, Iran, and Turkey, has retaken Khartoum, while the RSF, supported by the UAE, holds Darfur. Foreign powers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, exacerbate the crisis through arms and economic interests, turning Sudan into a proxy battlefield. This note explores the factions, their origins, the 2019 and 2021 coups, foreign roles, gold’s impact, and Sudan’s trajectory over 15 years. 1. For...

The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Chessboard: A High-Stakes Energy Game The Eastern Mediterranean has undergone a seismic shift in its geopolitical landscape over the past decade and a half, transitioning from a region primarily defined by historical grievances to a dynamic and fiercely contested energy frontier. The discovery of prodigious offshore natural gas reserves has set in motion a complex game of chess, drawing in a diverse array of actors, spurring billions in investment, and creating both opportunities for cooperation and flashpoints for conflict. This detailed examination delves into the motivations of the key players, the colossal financial stakes, the intractable disputes, and the broader global implications of this unfolding energy drama. The Protagonists: Who's on the Board? The cast of characters in the Eastern Mediterranean gas saga is extensive, each with their own strategic calculus: Israel: The first major beneficiary of the gas boom, Israel’s dis...