Amit's Blog

India’s Position Amid the Russian-Chinese Axis and U.S. Security Dynamics   India, with a $86.1 billion defense budget (2.4% of GDP, 2024) and a $3.9 trillion economy (nominal GDP, 2024), is a pivotal player in a multipolar world shaped by the Russian-Chinese axis and U.S. security dynamics. Benefiting from U.S. alignment through QUAD, India balances China’s $314 billion (1.7% GDP) and Russia’s $149 billion (7.1% GDP) military spending, while navigating economic ties with both (China: $136 billion trade; Russia: $65 billion). Its strategic autonomy, bolstered by Russian arms (30% of arsenal) and U.S. partnerships, positions India as a regional counterweight in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Indian Ocean. However, China’s economic leverage ($200 billion in regional trade) and Russia’s energy deals challenge India’s neutrality. This note explores India’s economic and geopolitical role across multiple theaters, its vulnerabilities to the axis, and implications for a U.S. North...

India’s Position in a Multipolar World India, with a $86.1 billion defense budget (2.4% of GDP, 2024) and a $3.9 trillion economy (nominal GDP, 2024), is a pivotal player in a multipolar world shaped by the Russian-Chinese axis and U.S. security dynamics. Benefiting from U.S. alignment through QUAD, India balances China’s $314 billion (1.7% GDP) and Russia’s $149 billion (7.1% GDP) military spending, while navigating economic ties with both (China: $136 billion trade; Russia: $65 billion). Its strategic autonomy, bolstered by Russian arms (30% of arsenal) and U.S. partnerships, positions India as a regional counterweight in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Indian Ocean. However, China’s economic leverage ($200 billion in regional trade) and Russia’s energy deals challenge India’s neutrality. This analysis explores India’s economic and geopolitical role across multiple theaters, its vulnerabilities to the axis, and implications for a U.S. North American alliance doctrine, concluding w...

  Navigating the Multipolar Maze: India's Geoeconomic Strategy in a Fractious World In an emerging multipolar world, India faces a tightrope walk as the U.S., a key trade partner ($120 billion in 2023), turns "nasty" with sanctions and trade pressures, while China and others vie for influence. Geoeconomics—using economic tools for geopolitical ends—shapes this landscape, with hegemons wielding market access, sanctions, and aid as weapons. India, intertwined with the U.S. for IT and defense, must diversify trade, leverage BRICS and QUAD, and bolster domestic resilience to navigate U.S.-China rivalries. Sanctions ripple beyond targets, pressuring non-sanctioned states like India to comply via trade disruptions or financial exclusion. A multipolar world dilutes U.S. dominance, offering India alternatives like China’s CIPS or Russia’s oil. By hedging strategically, India can balance autonomy with engagement, emerging as a Global South leader. This note outlines India’s prag...