Amit's Blog

Is the U.S. Justified in Considering a North American Alliance Doctrine? The United States’ colossal defense spending (3.4–3.7% of GDP, $778–968 billion from 2020–2024) has bankrolled global security, enabling allies like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, and Australia to prosper with lean defense budgets (1.4–2.5% of GDP) while forcing rivals like Russia (7.1%, $149 billion in 2024) to overspend. Frustration with European NATO allies—only 11 of 31 met the 2% GDP target in 2023—spurs interest in a North American alliance doctrine with Canada, Greenland, Mexico, and Central American states to secure the region while reducing NATO reliance. This note explores the strategic, economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions of this shift, including benefits to Canada and Greenland, and the roles of Mexico and Central America. While a regional focus could enhance security and economic ties, it risks weakening global influence. The reflection assesses whether this doctrine is a strategi...

A Golden Parachute for Allies, a Budget Sinkhole for Rivals   The United States’ massive defense spending, averaging 3.4–3.7% of GDP ($778–968 billion annually from 2020–2024), has reshaped global geopolitics, providing a security blanket for allies like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, and Australia while forcing adversaries like Russia to overspend on defense. Allies thrive with low budgets—Japan at 1.4%, Canada at ~1.5%, South Korea at ~2.5%, Australia at ~2.1%, and Germany at 1.8% in 2024—channeling savings into economic growth that fueled their prosperity over 50 years. Russia’s spending soared to 7.1% of GDP ($149 billion) in 2024, driven by Ukraine and NATO pressures, while China’s 1.7% ($314 billion) and India’s 2.4% ($86.1 billion) reflect strategic priorities. This note dives into how the U.S. security umbrella enabled allies’ wealth, compares budgets with major spenders, explores U.S. impatience with allies, and reflects on the sustainability of this lopsided sys...

Trump’s Tariffs: A High-Stakes Rewiring of Global Trade In 2025, Donald Trump’s second term unleashes a bold mix of tariffs and defense spending demands, aiming to reshape global trade and assert U.S. dominance. Tariffs—25% on Canada and Mexico, 10–20% on China and the EU—target the $971 billion trade deficit, aim to reshore manufacturing, and generate revenue, while pressure on NATO allies to hit 5% GDP on defense ties economic leverage to geopolitical goals. Energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and semiconductors see gains, but services exports, especially tech (AI, cloud computing) and financial services, emerge as the real growth engines, projected to grow 7% and 5% annually. The military-industrial complex (MIC) faces mixed prospects due to tariff-driven cost hikes and allies’ push for self-reliance. While tariffs deliver $26.6 billion monthly and spur steel jobs, they risk an 8% GDP drop and recession. We explore the objectives, sector impacts, and global effects, questioning if...