Stagnation Amidst Innovation: Military Productivity and Manpower Trends in India, China, USA, Israel, and the UK (1975–2023) with a Forward Look to 2030
Abstract Despite five decades of technological advancements in weaponry and systems, military productivity—measured as reduced manpower and optimized officer-to-soldier ratios—has not consistently improved across the armed forces of India, China, the United States, Israel, and the United Kingdom. This essay analyzes why productivity gains have lagged from 1975 to 2023, focusing on armies, navies, and air forces. India’s Army remains bloated compared to its Navy and Air Force, which align closer to global norms due to technological intensity. Key metrics—manpower size, officer-to-soldier ratio, defense spending per soldier, equipment modernization, operational readiness, and technological integration—are evaluated, with India’s historical performance (1975, 1995, 2005, 2023) compared to peers. Geopolitical pressures, bureaucratic inertia, and socio-economic roles explain persistent manpower reliance. A new section explores developments over 2025–2030, predicting India’s likely re...