Amit's Blog

A Golden Parachute for Allies, a Budget Sinkhole for Rivals   The United States’ massive defense spending, averaging 3.4–3.7% of GDP ($778–968 billion annually from 2020–2024), has reshaped global geopolitics, providing a security blanket for allies like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, and Australia while forcing adversaries like Russia to overspend on defense. Allies thrive with low budgets—Japan at 1.4%, Canada at ~1.5%, South Korea at ~2.5%, Australia at ~2.1%, and Germany at 1.8% in 2024—channeling savings into economic growth that fueled their prosperity over 50 years. Russia’s spending soared to 7.1% of GDP ($149 billion) in 2024, driven by Ukraine and NATO pressures, while China’s 1.7% ($314 billion) and India’s 2.4% ($86.1 billion) reflect strategic priorities. This note dives into how the U.S. security umbrella enabled allies’ wealth, compares budgets with major spenders, explores U.S. impatience with allies, and reflects on the sustainability of this lopsided sys...

Sudan’s Civil War: A Vortex of Power, Gold, and Proxy Games (2010–2025) Sudan’s civil war, erupting in April 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). Rooted in a power struggle following the 2019 ousting of Omar al-Bashir, the conflict has killed up to 150,000, displaced 12.3 million, and left 25 million facing hunger. Gold, fueling both sides through smuggling to the UAE, is a key driver, alongside ethnic tensions and foreign interference. The SAF, backed by Egypt, Iran, and Turkey, has retaken Khartoum, while the RSF, supported by the UAE, holds Darfur. Foreign powers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, exacerbate the crisis through arms and economic interests, turning Sudan into a proxy battlefield. This note explores the factions, their origins, the 2019 and 2021 coups, foreign roles, gold’s impact, and Sudan’s trajectory over 15 years. 1. For...

The U.S. Security Umbrella: A Golden Parachute for Allies, a Budget Sinkhole for Others The United States’ massive defense spending, averaging 3.4–3.7% of GDP ($778–968 billion annually from 2020–2024), has reshaped global geopolitics, providing a security blanket for allies like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, and Australia while forcing adversaries like Russia to overspend on defense. Allies thrive with low budgets—Japan at 1.4%, Canada at ~1.5%, South Korea at ~2.5%, Australia at ~2.1%, and Germany at 1.8% in 2024—channeling savings into economic growth that fueled their prosperity over 50 years. Russia’s spending soared to 7.1% of GDP ($149 billion) in 2024, driven by Ukraine and NATO pressures, while China’s 1.7% ($314 billion) and India’s 2.4% ($86.1 billion) reflect strategic priorities. The U.S. security umbrella enabled allies’ wealth, but now The U.S. is impatient with allies. Is this lopsided system sustainable?   Historical Context: The U.S. as Global Sheriff Sinc...