Amit's Blog

India’s Path to Upper-Middle-Income Status by 2050: Challenges and Opportunities   India, with its 1.4 billion people and rapidly growing economy, stands at a critical juncture in its development trajectory. Eighty years ago, most countries that were poor remained so, with rare exceptions like oil-rich nations aligned with the United States or those benefiting from US-led security and economic support, such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. China’s remarkable rise since the 1980s offers a partial exception, though it has not yet fully transitioned to high-income status. India, lacking vast natural resources or a geopolitical patron, faces a unique challenge: can it achieve upper-middle-income country (UMIC) status, defined by the World Bank as a GNI per capita between $4,516 and $14,005 (2024 thresholds), within the next 25 years? This essay explores India’s prospects, drawing on historical precedents, current economic trends, and expert insights. It examines whether India ...

Trump’s Tariffs: A High-Stakes Rewiring of Global Trade In 2025, Donald Trump’s second term unleashes a bold mix of tariffs and defense spending demands, aiming to reshape global trade and assert U.S. dominance. Tariffs—25% on Canada and Mexico, 10–20% on China and the EU—target the $971 billion trade deficit, aim to reshore manufacturing, and generate revenue, while pressure on NATO allies to hit 5% GDP on defense ties economic leverage to geopolitical goals. Energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and semiconductors see gains, but services exports, especially tech (AI, cloud computing) and financial services, emerge as the real growth engines, projected to grow 7% and 5% annually. The military-industrial complex (MIC) faces mixed prospects due to tariff-driven cost hikes and allies’ push for self-reliance. While tariffs deliver $26.6 billion monthly and spur steel jobs, they risk an 8% GDP drop and recession. We explore the objectives, sector impacts, and global effects, questioning if...