Amit's Blog

India’s ASEAN Ambition: Unlocking a $80-100 Billion Trade Frontier India’s trade with ASEAN, a $3.6 trillion economic juggernaut, has surged over two decades, yet its full potential remains untapped. From $10.4 billion in 2005, India’s merchandise exports to ASEAN hit $46.5 billion in 2024, driven by chemicals, base metals, and machinery, but a $43.7 billion trade deficit persists due to $90.2 billion in imports. Service exports, led by IT, reached $11.5 billion but lag globally. High logistics costs, limited global value chain (GVC) integration, and non-tariff barriers hinder competitiveness, while service exports face regulatory constraints. Over the next 5–7 years, pharmaceuticals, electronics, base metals, halal food, and IT services could drive exports to $80–100 billion, leveraging ASEAN’s healthcare, digital, and infrastructure booms. Strategic reforms—PLI schemes, infrastructure like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and deeper AIFTA integration—are vital to tran...

  Executive Summary Over the past 25 years, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have emerged as dynamic economic forces, each leveraging unique strengths to ascend the global stage. India has transformed from a state-controlled, agrarian economy into a services-driven powerhouse, fueled by a youthful workforce and digital innovation. ASEAN’s ten member states—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—have capitalized on export-led industrialization and regional integration to establish themselves as a manufacturing and trade hub. This paper provides a detailed comparison of their economic trajectories, identifying ten major structural differences, areas of complementarity and competition, and the multifaceted impacts of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA). It examines India’s persistent trade deficit with ASEAN, the associated risks and opportunities for both sides, and the potential for narrowin...