Amit's Blog

Trump’s Tariffs: A High-Stakes Rewiring of Global Trade In 2025, Donald Trump’s second term unleashes a bold mix of tariffs and defense spending demands, aiming to reshape global trade and assert U.S. dominance. Tariffs—25% on Canada and Mexico, 10–20% on China and the EU—target the $971 billion trade deficit, aim to reshore manufacturing, and generate revenue, while pressure on NATO allies to hit 5% GDP on defense ties economic leverage to geopolitical goals. Energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and semiconductors see gains, but services exports, especially tech (AI, cloud computing) and financial services, emerge as the real growth engines, projected to grow 7% and 5% annually. The military-industrial complex (MIC) faces mixed prospects due to tariff-driven cost hikes and allies’ push for self-reliance. While tariffs deliver $26.6 billion monthly and spur steel jobs, they risk an 8% GDP drop and recession. We explore the objectives, sector impacts, and global effects, questioning if...

India: Navigating Trade, Defense, and Diplomacy in a Multipolar World India, with a $4.1 trillion GDP and a youthful demographic, stands as a pivotal global power, leveraging its multi-alignment strategy to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry, assert leadership in BRICS, and expand trade in goods and services with the United States, China, Russia, the European Union (EU), ASEAN, Quad countries (U.S., Japan, Australia), Middle Eastern energy producers, and Turkey. As the fastest-growing large economy and a voice of the Global South, India balances economic growth, defense modernization, and diplomatic finesse while addressing regional challenges from Pakistan’s China-Turkey alignment. This India-centric note provides an in-depth analysis of its geopolitical positioning, BRICS role, trade dynamics (updated for FY 2024-25, including services), defense procurement and reliance, and threats in trade and defense, contextualizing Pakistan’s challenges. 1. India’s Geopolitical Positioning: Multi-A...