Navigating Trade, Defense, and Diplomacy in a Multipolar World

India: Navigating Trade, Defense, and Diplomacy in a Multipolar World

India, with a $4.1 trillion GDP and a youthful demographic, stands as a pivotal global power, leveraging its multi-alignment strategy to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry, assert leadership in BRICS, and expand trade in goods and services with the United States, China, Russia, the European Union (EU), ASEAN, Quad countries (U.S., Japan, Australia), Middle Eastern energy producers, and Turkey. As the fastest-growing large economy and a voice of the Global South, India balances economic growth, defense modernization, and diplomatic finesse while addressing regional challenges from Pakistan’s China-Turkey alignment. This India-centric note provides an in-depth analysis of its geopolitical positioning, BRICS role, trade dynamics (updated for FY 2024-25, including services), defense procurement and reliance, and threats in trade and defense, contextualizing Pakistan’s challenges.

1. India’s Geopolitical Positioning: Multi-Aligned

India’s multi-alignment strategy enables engagement with major powers without subservience, positioning it as a linchpin in the U.S.-China rivalry. “India’s strategic autonomy is its greatest asset, bridging East and West,” says External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar [1]. Its roles in BRICS, the Quad, and G20 amplify its influence, but China’s support for Pakistan and Turkey’s pro-Pakistan tilt pose challenges.

U.S.-China Rivalry:

• U.S. Partnership: The U.S. views India as a counterweight to China, with bilateral trade at $131.84 billion in FY 2024-25 [2]. “India is the cornerstone of our Indo-Pacific strategy,” says U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken [3]. However, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick criticized India’s BRICS participation and Russian arms reliance in 2025: “India’s Russian weapons purchases rub the U.S. the wrong way” [4]. “India must reassure Washington while preserving autonomy,” advises C. Raja Mohan of the Observer Research Foundation [5].
• China Challenge: China, India’s second-largest trading partner ($127.7 billion in FY 2024-25), is a rival due to a 3,500-km contested border and its support for Pakistan, including 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports (2019-2024) [6]. “China’s backing of Pakistan is a direct threat,” says Happymon Jacob of Jawaharlal Nehru University [7]. The 2024 Kazan Summit’s Modi-Xi agreement eased Line of Actual Control (LAC) tensions, but mistrust persists. “India must engage China pragmatically while bolstering defenses,” suggests former diplomat Shyam Saran [8].
• Russia’s Role: Russia supplies 36% of India’s arms, but its China alignment and sanctions-related disruptions raise concerns. “Russia’s pivot to China complicates India’s calculus,” warns Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment [9]. “India needs Russia’s energy and arms but must diversify,” says Sanjeev Sanyal, Economic Advisory Council member [10].

Pakistan’s Positioning: Pakistan’s “all-weather” partnership with China, driven by the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), contrasts with strained U.S. ties, marred by Washington’s India pivot and allegations of U.S. interference in Imran Khan’s 2023 ouster. “Pakistan’s alignment with China risks client-state status,” notes analyst Ayesha Siddiqa [11]. “Pakistan’s desirability to both powers grants diplomatic space,” says Kamran Faisal [12], but “over-dependence on Chinese loans threatens stability,” warns economist Sakib Sherani [13].

Turkey’s Pro-Pakistan Tilt: Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan, driven by Islamic identity and defense ties, challenges India, especially on Kashmir. President Erdogan’s UN statements support Pakistan’s stance. “Turkey’s pro-Pakistan tilt is a strategic irritant,” says Harsh V. Pant of ORF [14]. Turkey supplies Pakistan with drones and naval equipment. “India must counter Turkey diplomatically,” advises former diplomat TCA Raghavan [15].

2. India’s Positioning in BRICS: Shaping a Multipolar World

India leverages BRICS to assert Global South leadership, advocate for multipolarity, and counter China’s dominance. Representing 45% of the global population and 30% of GDP, BRICS offers a platform for UN Security Council reform and de-dollarization (e.g., BRICS Pay, BRICS Bridge). “BRICS is India’s vehicle to reshape global governance,” says Sharmila Kantha of the Confederation of Indian Industry [16]. India’s second-largest shareholding in the New Development Bank (NDB), with $32.8 billion for 96 projects, supports infrastructure and sustainability [17].

Strategic Objectives:

• Countering China: India opposes rapid BRICS expansion to limit China’s influence, blocking Pakistan’s membership. “India’s veto on Pakistan preserves leverage,” says Sameer Lalwani of the Stimson Center [18]. “India must ensure BRICS remains democratic, not China-led,” warns Ashley Tellis [9].
• Diplomatic Utility: The 2024 Kazan Summit facilitated a Modi-Xi LAC agreement. “BRICS allows India to engage adversaries without compromising sovereignty,” says Shyam Saran [8]. “India’s BRICS diplomacy is unmatched,” adds former diplomat Kanwal Sibal [19].
• Economic Opportunities: India pushes for local currency trade and supply chain integration. “BRICS can reduce India’s trade deficits,” says Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal [20]. “BRICS Pay could transform India’s trade,” notes economist Arvind Panagariya [21].

Challenges:

• China’s Dominance: China’s 70% share of BRICS GDP overshadows India. “India must ally with Brazil, UAE, and Egypt to balance China,” suggests Lisa Curtis of the Center for a New American Security [22]. “India’s challenge is to keep BRICS multipolar,” adds former diplomat Shashi Tharoor [23].
• U.S. Concerns: De-dollarization efforts strain U.S. ties. “India’s BRICS activism worries Washington, but it’s not anti-Western,” says former diplomat Syed Akbaruddin [24].
• Pakistan’s Ambitions: Pakistan seeks BRICS membership, backed by China and Russia. “Pakistan’s inclusion would strengthen China’s influence, which India opposes,” says Harsh V. Pant [14].

3. Trade Relations: Expanding Goods and Services

India’s trade strategy focuses on reducing deficits, diversifying partners, and leveraging its $372.3 billion services export sector (IT, software, BPO) in FY 2024-25, while Pakistan struggles with import-heavy trade. India’s total exports reached $820.93 billion, with merchandise at $437.42 billion and services up 10.31% to $372.3 billion [25, 26].

India’s Trade Dynamics:

• China:
• Goods: Trade reached $127.7 billion in FY 2024-25, with a $99.2 billion deficit due to imports of electronics ($40 billion), chemicals ($25 billion), and machinery ($20 billion) [2]. Exports ($14.25 billion) include iron ore and cotton. “India must boost exports to China in pharmaceuticals and agriculture,” says the 2024 Economic Survey [27]. “Selective integration into Chinese supply chains can enhance competitiveness,” notes Arvind Panagariya [21].
• Services: Services exports ($2 billion) are limited by regulatory barriers. “China’s closed digital market restricts India’s IT potential,” says NASSCOM President Debjani Ghosh [28]. India must negotiate access for IT and professional services.
• Threats: Over-reliance on Chinese APIs (70% of supply) and semiconductors risks disruptions. “China’s export controls could choke industries,” warns Ajay Srivastava [29]. Geopolitical tensions could halt trade. “India’s dependence on China is a strategic vulnerability,” says Biswajit Dhar [30].
• U.S.:
• Goods: Trade hit $131.84 billion, with exports ($86.51 billion) including drug formulations ($8.1 billion) and imports ($45.33 billion) like crude oil ($4.5 billion) [2]. “India needs a balanced trade deal to counter Trump’s tariffs,” says Nisha Desai Biswal [31].
• Services: The U.S. is India’s largest services market ($90 billion), driven by IT. “H-1B visa curbs are a hurdle,” says Infosys CEO Salil Parekh [32]. “A U.S.-India trade deal could boost services to $150 billion,” adds USIBC’s Atul Keshap [33].
• Threats: U.S. protectionism and visa restrictions could cut services exports. “India must diversify services markets,” says Nagesh Kumar [34]. “Tariffs threaten export growth,” warns Rajat Kathuria [35].
• Russia:
• Goods: Trade reached $65.7 billion, driven by 40% of India’s oil imports ($30 billion) [2]. “Russian oil is cost-effective, but sanctions require diversification,” warns Sanjeev Sanyal [10].
• Services: Services trade ($1 billion) has potential in IT. “India can export IT services to Russia,” says Bibek Debroy [36].
• Threats: Sanctions could disrupt oil imports. “India must secure alternative suppliers,” says Narendra Taneja [37].
• EU:
• Goods: The EU ($110 billion) imports machinery ($20 billion) and textiles ($15 billion) [2]. “An India-EU FTA could boost exports by 20%,” says Piyush Goyal [20].
• Services: The EU accounts for $35 billion in IT and financial services. “An FTA can double services trade,” says FICCI President Anish Shah [38].
• Threats: EU’s CBAM could raise costs for steel and cement. “India must align with EU green standards,” says Biswajit Dhar [30]. GDPR compliance challenges IT exports. “GDPR is a hurdle,” says Pavan Duggal [39].
• ASEAN:
• Goods: Trade ($80 billion) faces deficits with Vietnam ($10 billion) and Indonesia ($8 billion) [2]. “India must address ASEAN non-tariff barriers,” says Nagesh Kumar [34].
• Services: ASEAN imports $18 billion in IT services. “ASEAN is a growth market,” says Rajiv Bhatia [40].
• Threats: China’s $500 billion ASEAN trade overshadows India. “India must counter China’s influence,” says Nagesh Kumar [34]. ASEAN’s IT hubs compete with India. “India needs to invest in ASEAN’s digital infrastructure,” says Rajat Kathuria [35].
• Quad Countries:
• Goods: Trade with Japan ($22 billion) and Australia ($16 billion) grows via FTAs [2]. “Quad trade strengthens resilience,” says Lisa Curtis [22].
• Services: Japan and Australia import $12 billion in IT services. “India’s services exports to Quad nations are underutilized,” says TCS CEO K. Krithivasan [41].
• Threats: Japan’s aging market and Australia’s limited scale restrict growth. “India must deepen Quad services trade,” says Anit Mukherjee [42].
• Middle East Energy Producers:
• Goods: Trade with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq ($120 billion) focuses on oil ($70 billion) [2]. “Middle East energy is vital,” says Narendra Taneja [37]. IMEC counters China’s BRI. “IMEC positions India as a trade hub,” says Anil Wadhwa [43].
• Services: The Gulf imports $6 billion in IT and construction services. “India can tap Gulf digitalization,” says Rupa Chanda [44].
• Threats: OPEC cuts and instability could disrupt oil. “India must diversify to renewables,” says Vikram Singh Mehta [45].
• Turkey:
• Goods: Trade ($2 billion) includes auto components [2]. “Economic ties can balance Turkey’s Pakistan tilt,” says Rakesh Sood [46].
• Services: IT services ($0.5 billion) have potential. “India should target Turkey’s digital market,” says Abhijit Singh [47].
• Threats: Turkey’s pro-Pakistan stance could limit trade. “India must use diplomacy,” says TCA Raghavan [15].

Pakistan’s Trade Dynamics:

• China: Trade ($20 billion) is import-heavy. “Pakistan’s trade deficit with China is unsustainable,” says Hafeez Pasha [48].
• U.S.: Trade ($6 billion) relies on IMF loans. “Pakistan must diversify exports,” says Miftah Ismail [49].
• EU: The EU ($8 billion) is Pakistan’s largest export market via GSP+. “GSP+ is a lifeline,” says EU Ambassador Riina Kionka [50].
• ASEAN: Trade ($2 billion) grows with Malaysia. “Pakistan should leverage ASEAN,” says Maleeha Lodhi [51].
• Middle East: Trade ($5 billion) focuses on remittances. “Gulf ties are critical,” says Ashfaque Hasan Khan [52].
• Turkey: Trade ($1 billion) is bolstered by defense ties. “Turkey’s FTA enhances Pakistan’s position,” says Hasan Kakar [53].
• Threats: Over-reliance on China and GSP+ risks vulnerability. “Pakistan’s trade dependence limits autonomy,” says Kaiser Bengali [54].

4. Defense Procurement and Reliance: Modernizing for Security

India’s defense strategy emphasizes indigenization and diversification to counter China and Pakistan, while Pakistan relies heavily on China.

India’s Defense Strategy:

• Current Landscape: India meets 65% of defense needs domestically (Tejas, BrahMos, Arjun tank), with a $130 billion budget in FY 2025-26 [55]. Russia (36%), the U.S., France, and Israel are key suppliers. “Self-reliance is India’s path to autonomy,” says Defence Minister Rajnath Singh [56]. DRDO drives hypersonic missiles and AI systems. “India’s indigenous push reduces dependence,” says DRDO chief Samir Kamat [57].
• Indigenization Efforts: Make in India and iDEX support 4,000 startups. “Public-private partnerships transform defense,” says Mukesh Ambani [58]. Exports like BrahMos ($375 million) aim for $5 billion by 2030. “Defense exports enhance India’s standing,” says Ajay Srivastava [29].
• Diversification:
• Russia: Supplies S-400, SU-30 MKI, and T-90 tanks. “Russia’s reliability is waning,” says Rahul Bedi [59].
• U.S.: Provides Predator drones and Chinooks. “U.S. tech transfers accelerate modernization,” says Lisa Curtis [22].
• France: Supplies Rafale jets and Scorpene submarines. “France is critical for air and naval power,” says RKS Bhadauria [60].
• Israel, Japan, South Korea: Israel provides missile defense; Japan and South Korea offer cyber tech. “Israel’s systems enhance capabilities,” says Ajai Shukla [61].
• Reliance Challenges: Russian spares (60% of legacy systems) are vulnerable to sanctions. “India must reduce Russian reliance,” says Happymon Jacob [7]. Western tech transfers are limited. “The U.S. and France must offer more access,” says Anil Trigunayat [62]. DRDO delays hinder projects. “Faster R&D is essential,” says V.K. Singh [63].
• Needs:
• Border Defense: Drones and artillery for LAC. “Border security is paramount,” says Manoj Pande [64].
• Maritime Dominance: Carriers, submarines, and BrahMos for the Indian Ocean. “Naval modernization is non-negotiable,” says Karambir Singh [65].
• Cyber and Space: Cyber systems and anti-satellite weapons. “Cyber and space are new frontiers,” says S. Somanath [66].
• Emerging Tech: AI and hypersonics. “India must lead in disruptive tech,” says Tessy Thomas [67].

Pakistan’s Defense Strategy:

• China Reliance: China’s 81% share includes JF-17 fighters and nuclear support. “Chinese tech gives Pakistan an edge,” says Brian Cloughley [68]. Turkey’s drones enhance capabilities. “Turkey’s defense ties challenge India,” says Harsh V. Pant [14].
• Reliance Challenges: Limited U.S. supplies and a $7 billion budget constrain modernization. “Pakistan’s China reliance limits autonomy,” says Talat Masood [69].
• Needs: Naval modernization and cyber capabilities. “Pakistan’s navy must match India,” says Zafar Mahmood Abbasi [70].

Threats in Defense:

• India:
• China’s Superiority: China’s $296 billion budget and J-20 jets outpace India. “China’s edge is a long-term threat,” says Abhijit Iyer-Mitra [71].
• Pakistan’s Chinese Arms: Drones and nuclear capabilities threaten borders. “Pakistan’s arsenal escalates tensions,” says Rahul Bedi [59].
• Sanctions on Russia: Could ground SU-30 fleet. “Sanctions expose vulnerabilities,” says Ajai Shukla [61].
• Cyber Threats: China and Pakistan’s cyber-attacks target infrastructure. “India must prioritize cyber defense,” says Pavan Duggal [39].
• Space Threats: China’s anti-satellite tech threatens India’s satellites. “India needs space defense,” says S. Somanath [66].
• Pakistan: Economic constraints and U.S. restrictions limit capabilities. “Pakistan’s spending is unsustainable,” says Kaiser Bengali [54].

5. Additional Dimensions

India’s strategic ascendancy is shaped not only by its trade and defense strategies but also by broader issues that define its domestic and international positioning. These include economic resilience, leadership of the Global South, management of Kashmir tensions, and emerging challenges such as climate resilience, diaspora influence, and technological sovereignty. These factors enhance India’s global clout while highlighting Pakistan’s vulnerabilities, particularly its economic distress and reliance on external powers like China and Turkey.

Economic Resilience: India’s robust economic growth, at 6.8% for FY 2024-25, underscores its emergence as a global economic powerhouse, with a GDP of $4.1 trillion and a burgeoning digital economy. “India’s economic rise underpins its geopolitical clout, positioning it as a counterweight to China,” says economist Arvind Subramanian [77]. The country’s $820.93 billion in exports (goods: $437.42 billion; services: $372.3 billion) in FY 2024-25 reflects its diversified economic base, driven by IT, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing [2]. Initiatives like Make in India and Digital India have attracted $100 billion in FDI in 2024, bolstering industrial and technological capabilities. “India’s economic dynamism is a strategic asset,” says NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam [80]. However, challenges like income inequality and rural unemployment (7.5% in 2024) require sustained reforms. “India must prioritize inclusive growth to maintain stability,” warns economist Kaushik Basu [81].

In contrast, Pakistan’s economic fragility, marked by its 25th IMF loan program ($7 billion in 2024), highlights its debt distress, with external debt at $130 billion and a trade deficit of $25 billion. “Pakistan’s economic constraints limit its strategic options,” says economist Hafeez Pasha [52]. Dependence on Chinese loans via CPEC ($62 billion) and remittances from the Gulf ($30 billion annually) underscores vulnerability. “Pakistan’s economy is trapped in a cycle of external dependence,” says economist Kaiser Bengali [58]. Political instability, including the fallout from Imran Khan’s 2023 ouster, further hampers reforms. “Pakistan must diversify its economy to avoid becoming a Chinese satellite,” advises former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail [53].

Global South Leadership: India’s leadership in forums like the G20, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) positions it as a bridge between the Global South and developed nations. Its 2023 G20 presidency prioritized climate finance, digital public infrastructure, and UN reforms, amplifying its voice. “India is the Global South’s bridge to the world,” says former UN diplomat Syed Akbaruddin [24]. In BRICS, India advocates for multipolarity and de-dollarization (e.g., BRICS Pay), while countering China’s dominance. “India’s G20 and BRICS roles showcase its ability to shape global agendas,” says former diplomat Shashi Tharoor [23]. Initiatives like the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) enhance India’s soft power. “India’s leadership in climate and infrastructure is transformative,” says ISA Director-General Ajay Mathur [82].

Pakistan, excluded from BRICS due to India’s opposition, struggles to assert global influence. Its reliance on China and Turkey limits its role in multilateral forums. “Pakistan’s absence from BRICS constrains its global outreach,” says analyst Maleeha Lodhi [55]. Efforts to join BRICS, backed by China and Russia, reflect Pakistan’s desire to counter isolation, but its economic fragility undermines credibility. “Pakistan’s global influence hinges on economic stability,” says former diplomat Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry [83].

Kashmir Tensions: The Kashmir issue remains a flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations, exacerbated by Pakistan’s alignment with China and Turkey. China’s support for Pakistan’s nuclear program and 81% of its arms imports (2019-2024) strengthens its military posture against India [6]. Turkey’s advocacy for Pakistan at the UN, raising Kashmir as a humanitarian issue, adds pressure. “Pakistan’s Chinese and Turkish support escalates the Kashmir rivalry,” says former diplomat G. Parthasarathy [78]. India maintains that Kashmir is a bilateral issue, rejecting third-party mediation, as reiterated during the 2025 U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks. “India must counter Pakistan’s international campaign diplomatically,” says former diplomat Kanwal Sibal [19]. India’s revocation of Article 370 in 2019 and subsequent development initiatives in Jammu and Kashmir aim to integrate the region, but cross-border terrorism persists. “Pakistan’s use of terrorism as a tool must be neutralized through global pressure,” says security expert Ajai Sahni [84].

Pakistan leverages Kashmir to rally domestic support and international sympathy, particularly through Turkey and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). “Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative relies on external allies,” says analyst Hasan Kakar [57]. However, its economic constraints limit military escalation. “Pakistan’s Kashmir strategy is unsustainable without economic strength,” says defense analyst Mubeen Adnan [76].

Climate Resilience: India faces increasing climate risks, including floods, heatwaves, and cyclones, costing 1.5% of GDP annually ($60 billion). Its leadership in renewable energy (175 GW installed capacity in 2025) and climate finance through BRICS and G20 positions it as a global advocate. “India’s renewable energy push is critical for resilience,” says climate expert Navroz Dubash [85]. Investments in green hydrogen ($5 billion by 2030) and the National Climate Action Plan aim to achieve net-zero by 2070. “India’s climate leadership enhances its Global South credentials,” says TERI’s RR Rashmi [86]. However, dependence on coal (50% of energy mix) and inadequate adaptation funding pose challenges. “India must balance energy security and climate goals,” says energy expert Vikram Singh Mehta [48].

Pakistan, highly vulnerable to climate change (ranked 8th on the 2024 Global Climate Risk Index), faces floods and droughts that displace millions and cost $15 billion since 2022. “Pakistan’s climate vulnerability exacerbates economic distress,” says environmentalist Ahmad Rafay Alam [87]. Limited renewable capacity (10 GW) and reliance on fossil fuels hinder resilience. “Pakistan needs international support for climate adaptation,” says economist Ashfaque Hasan Khan [56].

Diaspora Influence: India’s 32-million-strong diaspora, particularly in the U.S. (4.8 million) and Gulf (9 million), contributes $120 billion in remittances and amplifies soft power. “India’s diaspora is a strategic asset, shaping global perceptions,” says former diplomat Taranjit Singh Sandhu [88]. In the U.S., Indian-Americans influence policy through advocacy groups like USINPAC. “The diaspora strengthens India-U.S. ties,” says USIBC’s Atul Keshap [34]. In the Gulf, Indian workers drive economic ties, but labor rights issues require attention. “India must protect its Gulf diaspora,” says migration expert Irudaya Rajan [89].

Pakistan’s 9-million diaspora, primarily in the Gulf and UK, sends $31 billion in remittances but has less political influence. “Pakistan’s diaspora is an economic lifeline but lacks India’s global clout,” says economist Sakib Sherani [13]. Political divisions, including Imran Khan’s overseas support base, limit its impact. “Pakistan must harness its diaspora for diplomacy,” says former diplomat Husain Haqqani [90].

Technological Sovereignty: India’s push for technological self-reliance, through initiatives like the National Quantum Mission and 5G rollout, aims to reduce dependence on foreign tech, particularly from China. “India’s tech sovereignty is critical for security,” says MeitY Secretary S. Krishnan [91]. Investments in AI ($1 billion by 2026) and semiconductors (India Semiconductor Mission) position India as a tech hub. “India’s digital infrastructure is a global model,” says NASSCOM’s Debjani Ghosh [29]. However, reliance on Chinese hardware (40% of telecom equipment) poses risks. “India must localize tech supply chains,” says tech expert Anupam Chander [92].

Pakistan lags in tech development, relying on Chinese 5G and cyber systems. “Pakistan’s tech dependence on China limits sovereignty,” says cybersecurity expert Taha Siddiqui [93]. Limited R&D investment ($0.5 billion) hinders progress. “Pakistan needs a tech revolution to compete,” says economist Hafeez Pasha [52].

Threats:

• Economic Risks:
• India: Inequality (top 1% hold 40% of wealth) and unemployment (7.5%) could fuel social unrest. “Inclusive growth is India’s biggest challenge,” says Kaushik Basu [81]. External shocks, like oil price spikes, could strain the $4.1 trillion economy. “India must diversify energy and trade,” says Arvind Panagariya [21].
• Pakistan: Debt distress ($130 billion) and inflation (12% in 2024) risk economic collapse. “Pakistan’s economy is on the brink,” says Kaiser Bengali [58]. Over-reliance on Chinese loans and Gulf remittances increases vulnerability. “Pakistan needs structural reforms,” says Miftah Ismail [53].
• Global South Challenges:
• India: Balancing BRICS with Western ties risks alienating the U.S. “India must clarify its non-aligned stance,” says Lisa Curtis [22]. China’s dominance in BRICS could marginalize India. “India needs strategic allies in BRICS,” says Shashi Tharoor [23].
• Pakistan: Exclusion from BRICS and limited SCO influence restrict its global role. “Pakistan’s isolation undermines its aspirations,” says Maleeha Lodhi [55].
• Kashmir Security:
• India: Cross-border terrorism (200 incidents in 2024) and Pakistan’s Chinese-Turkish backing threaten stability. “India must strengthen counterterrorism,” says Ajai Sahni [84]. International pressure from OIC and Turkey complicates diplomacy. “India needs a robust Kashmir narrative,” says Kanwal Sibal [19].
• Pakistan: Economic constraints limit military escalation, but proxy terrorism persists. “Pakistan’s Kashmir strategy is a low-cost irritant,” says Mubeen Adnan [76].
• Climate Risks:
• India: Climate disasters ($60 billion annually) threaten infrastructure and agriculture. “India needs $1 trillion for adaptation,” says Navroz Dubash [85].
• Pakistan: Floods and droughts ($15 billion losses) exacerbate poverty. “Pakistan’s climate crisis is a national emergency,” says Ahmad Rafay Alam [87].
• Diaspora Challenges:
• India: Gulf labor rights issues and U.S. visa restrictions could limit diaspora contributions. “India must advocate for its workers,” says Irudaya Rajan [89].
• Pakistan: Political divisions among diaspora weaken influence. “Pakistan’s diaspora needs unity,” says Husain Haqqani [90].
• Tech Vulnerabilities:
• India: Chinese hardware dependence risks cyber espionage. “India’s tech supply chain is a security gap,” says Pavan Duggal [42].
• Pakistan: Chinese cyber systems increase surveillance risks. “Pakistan’s tech reliance on China is a sovereignty issue,” says Taha Siddiqui [93].

6. Strategic Imperatives for India

India’s ascendancy requires leveraging economic growth, multi-alignment, and defense capabilities to navigate rivalries, lead in BRICS, expand trade, and counter threats.

1. Strengthen BRICS Leadership:
• Host a BRICS secretariat in New Delhi. “BRICS is India’s vehicle to reshape governance,” says Sharmila Kantha [16]. “Hosting cements influence,” says Kanwal Sibal [19].
• Ally with Brazil, UAE, and Egypt to counter China. “India must balance China,” says Lisa Curtis [22]. “India’s challenge is to keep BRICS multipolar,” says Shashi Tharoor [23].
• Promote BRICS Pay. “BRICS Pay could transform trade,” says Arvind Panagariya [21].
• Block Pakistan’s entry. “India’s veto preserves leverage,” says Sameer Lalwani [18].
• Engage China diplomatically. “BRICS allows pragmatic engagement,” says Shyam Saran [8].
2. Expand Trade in Goods and Services:
• Reduce deficits with China ($99.2 billion) and Russia by boosting pharmaceutical and IT exports. “India must diversify exports,” says the 2024 Economic Survey [27].
• Finalize EU and ASEAN FTAs. “An EU FTA could boost exports by 20%,” says Piyush Goyal [20].
• Boost services exports to Quad ($20 billion potential) and Gulf ($10 billion). “Services are India’s strength,” says Debjani Ghosh [28].
• Localize API and semiconductor production. “Supply chain diversification is a necessity,” says Ajay Srivastava [29].
• Mitigate U.S. tariffs and EU CBAM. “India must align with green standards,” says Biswajit Dhar [30].
3. Accelerate Defense Modernization:
• Achieve 75% indigenization by 2030. “Self-reliance is autonomy,” says Rajnath Singh [56].
• Diversify from Russia with U.S., France, and Israel. “U.S. tech transfers accelerate modernization,” says Lisa Curtis [22].
• Prioritize border defense, maritime dominance, cyber, and space. “Naval modernization is non-negotiable,” says Karambir Singh [65].
• Address sanctions and delays. “Faster R&D is essential,” says V.K. Singh [63].
• Boost exports to $5 billion. “Exports enhance standing,” says Ajay Srivastava [29].
4. Deepen Middle East Engagement:
• Secure oil imports ($70 billion) and renewables (175 GW). “Middle East energy is vital,” says Narendra Taneja [37].
• Advance IMEC. “IMEC positions India as a trade hub,” says Anil Wadhwa [43].
• Expand Gulf services trade. “India can tap Gulf digitalization,” says Rupa Chanda [44].
• Balance Gulf and Iran. “India must balance diplomatically,” says Ranjit Gupta [86].
5. Enhance ASEAN and Quad Synergy:
• Boost ASEAN trade ($80 billion) and defense. “ASEAN is India’s Indo-Pacific anchor,” says Rajiv Bhatia [40].
• Deepen Quad trade and tech. “Quad strengthens resilience,” says Anit Mukherjee [42].
• Counter China’s ASEAN dominance. “India must invest in ASEAN’s digital infrastructure,” says Rajat Kathuria [35].
6. Counter Turkey-Pakistan Axis:
• Expand trade with Turkey ($2 billion). “Economic ties can neutralize Turkey,” says Rakesh Sood [46].
• Engage Turkey in the OIC. “Diplomacy can mitigate Turkey’s stance,” says TCA Raghavan [15].
• Monitor Turkey-Pakistan defense ties. “India needs to counter Turkey,” says Harsh V. Pant [14].
7. Balance U.S.-China Relations:
• Reassure the U.S. on non-alignment. “India’s partnership is strategic but not exclusive,” says Shivshankar Menon [87].
• Engage China pragmatically. “India’s China engagement must be constructive,” says Shyam Saran [8].
• Leverage Russia. “Russia is critical, but India needs alternatives,” says Ashley Tellis [9].
8. Address Emerging Challenges:
• Invest in climate adaptation ($1 trillion by 2050). “Climate resilience is a priority,” says Navroz Dubash [77].
• Harness diaspora ($120 billion remittances). “Diaspora is a strategic asset,” says Taranjit Singh Sandhu [79].
• Localize tech supply chains. “Tech sovereignty is vital,” says S. Krishnan [81].
• Counter Kashmir narratives. “India needs a robust narrative,” says Kanwal Sibal [19].

Conclusion

India’s ascendancy hinges on leveraging multi-alignment to navigate U.S.-China rivalry, lead in BRICS, expand trade ($820.93 billion), and modernize defense against China and Pakistan’s threats. Pakistan’s Chinese dependence and Turkey’s tilt limit its options, while India’s economic and military strength positions it as a global leader. “India’s rise rests on balancing growth, defense, and diplomacy,” says Michael Kugelman [88].

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