Financial and Welfare Impact of a 30% U.S. Defense Budget Cut on NATO Member States: Implications for the EU, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain (2025–2030)
Preamble This analysis aims to estimate the financial, economic, and social welfare impacts on NATO member states if the United States reduces its defense budget by 30% over the next five years (2025–2030) and expects other members to cover the resulting shortfalls in NATO’s common budget and future war-related expenditures. The focus is on the European Union (EU) as a whole and the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, assuming war spending patterns similar to those over the past 35 years (1989–2024), pro-rated for 2025–2030. The report quantifies the additional spending required, expresses it as a percentage of GDP, and evaluates the impact on Europe’s welfare economies, including potential shortfalls in social spending. It also identifies beneficiaries of the current NATO funding structure. By providing historical contributions, projected costs, and welfare implications, this report informs policymakers about the challenges of redistributing NATO’s financial resp...