Amit's Blog

The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Chessboard: A High-Stakes Energy Game The Eastern Mediterranean has undergone a seismic shift in its geopolitical landscape over the past decade and a half, transitioning from a region primarily defined by historical grievances to a dynamic and fiercely contested energy frontier. The discovery of prodigious offshore natural gas reserves has set in motion a complex game of chess, drawing in a diverse array of actors, spurring billions in investment, and creating both opportunities for cooperation and flashpoints for conflict. This detailed examination delves into the motivations of the key players, the colossal financial stakes, the intractable disputes, and the broader global implications of this unfolding energy drama. The Protagonists: Who's on the Board? The cast of characters in the Eastern Mediterranean gas saga is extensive, each with their own strategic calculus: Israel: The first major beneficiary of the gas boom, Israel’s dis...

  China’s rise as a global energy powerhouse has been fueled, in part, by its growing appetite for natural gas. Over the past 15 years, pipelines from Central Asia, Russia, and Myanmar have transformed from a footnote to a cornerstone of its energy mix. Today, they deliver roughly 18% of China’s natural gas supply—a figure that’s set to grow. Let’s dive into the history of these pipelines, their contributions, the trade relationships they’ve fostered, and what the next five years might hold for China’s energy security. The Pipeline Pioneers: A Brief History China imports natural gas through three major pipeline systems, each with its own timeline and quirks. Central Asia Gas Pipeline (CAGP): The Early Giant Spanning Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, the CAGP kicked off with Line A in 2009, followed by Line B in 2010 and Line C in 2014. With a combined capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year), it’s been a workhorse. Line D, promising another 30 bcm/year,...

  Part 4 - The Russian Angle Originally published at  http://www.uniindia.com/china-s-energy-security-needs-the-russian-angle/business-economy/news/2254439.html on Dec 5, 2020 China and Russia have had a blow hot blow cold political relationship. Up until the early seventies China and Russia were cold war allies and then it switched the other way. China and The United States became trading partners and the partnership grew from strength to strength. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union collapsed and by the year 2000 Russia was in the doldrums facing severe erosion in strength. Since then Russia has turned around and has regained strength. In spite of repeated US sanctions Russia has reemerged as a force to reckon with and oil & gas has been central to it. Russia holds the largest natural gas reserves in the world, with more than half of them located in Siberia. Over 70% of the country's reserves are currently held by Gazprom, a state-owned company. Russia holds 1,688 trillion c...

  Part 3 - China and Central Asia Originally Published at  http://www.uniindia.com/china-and-central-asia/business-economy/news/2254106.html On Dec 4, 2020 Part 2 - Natural Gas and China "Natural gas supplies to the People’s Republic of China have helped drive Central Asia’s economic growth for the last decade. For no country is this more true than for Turkmenistan: over 90 percent of Turkmenistan’s total exports is natural gas exports to China. This figure is up from near zero before the Central Asia-China gas pipeline opened in December 2009. In 2019, Turkmenistan sold Beijing just over 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan each selling 10 bcm. The initial outbreak of COVID-19 in China caused significant disruption to these supplies. As the pandemic continues to have an effect on energy demand, a result of the ongoing global economic slowdown, the short-term outlook for Central Asia is troubled. However, over the medium term, the crisis...