Amit's Blog

India’s Economic Mirage: Hope, Hype, or Inevitable Disappointment? India is frequently celebrated as an emerging economic titan, poised to rival global giants like China. Its 6-7% GDP growth rate, burgeoning digital infrastructure, and youthful demographic paint a picture of boundless potential. Yet, this narrative masks deep-seated structural challenges: a per capita income of ~$2,600 (IMF, 2024), closer to sub-Saharan Africa than to peers like Vietnam ($4,100) or Indonesia ($4,700); a manufacturing sector languishing at 14% of GDP; and an education system failing to equip its workforce for a modern economy. This analysis delves into India’s economic trajectory, dissecting the gap between its aspirations and reality through data, expert insights, and global comparisons. Beyond manufacturing and education, it explores additional dimensions—rural-urban divides, environmental constraints, and governance inefficiencies—that threaten India’s ascent, while assessing whether its geopolitic...

The Tale of Two Punjabs: From Breadbaskets to Backwaters Once the crown jewels of their nations, Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab rode the Green Revolution’s wave in the 1960s to become agricultural powerhouses, boasting prosperity unmatched in South Asia. Extensive canal systems, high-yield seeds, and government support turned them into India and Pakistan’s breadbaskets. Yet, both regions have since stumbled, failing to transition to large-scale industrialization or services, remaining tethered to agriculture’s sinking ship. Indian Punjab, battered by insurgency and policy missteps, and Pakistani Punjab, choked by national instability and feudal grip, missed the IT and manufacturing booms that transformed peers like Gujarat, South Indian States, Maharashtra, and Karachi. Ecological decay, governance failures, and brain drain have left them middling players. This note explores their parallel declines through economic, political, and social lenses, drawing on thinkers like Nirvikar...