The Tale of Two Punjabs: From Breadbaskets to Backwaters
Once the crown jewels of their nations, Indian Punjab and Pakistani
Punjab rode the Green Revolution’s wave in the 1960s to become agricultural
powerhouses, boasting prosperity unmatched in South Asia. Extensive canal
systems, high-yield seeds, and government support turned them into India and
Pakistan’s breadbaskets. Yet, both regions have since stumbled, failing to
transition to large-scale industrialization or services, remaining tethered to
agriculture’s sinking ship. Indian Punjab, battered by insurgency and policy
missteps, and Pakistani Punjab, choked by national instability and feudal grip,
missed the IT and manufacturing booms that transformed peers like Gujarat,
South Indian States, Maharashtra, and Karachi. Ecological decay, governance
failures, and brain drain have left them middling players. This note explores
their parallel declines through economic, political, and social lenses, drawing
on thinkers like Nirvikar Singh and Ishrat Husain, and charts revival
paths—diversification, industrial growth, and reforms—while questioning if
they’re stuck in a structural quagmire or poised for redemption.
The Golden Age: When Punjab Ruled the Roost
In the 1950s and 1960s, the two Punjabs—Indian and
Pakistani—were the envy of their nations. United by history, geography, and a
knack for turning soil into gold, they leveraged colonial-era canal systems to
fuel agricultural booms. Indian Punjab, post its 1966 trifurcation into a
smaller state, saw agriculture’s share in Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP)
soar to 54.27% by 1970–71, driven by the Green Revolution’s high-yield variety
(HYV) seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation. Pakistani Punjab, the heart of West
Pakistan, contributed over 60% of the country’s wheat and dominated cotton
production, powering Pakistan’s 6% GDP growth in the 1960s.
The Green Revolution was their trump card.
“Punjab’s agricultural miracle was no accident; it was engineered by science
and policy,” notes economist Nirvikar Singh. In India, dams like Bhakra-Nangal
and policies like the Minimum Support Price (MSP) ensured stable markets for
wheat and rice. In Pakistan, tube-wells and subsidies mimicked this success,
with Punjab’s output making it the nation’s economic spine. Small-scale
industries—textiles, bicycles, and farm equipment—sprouted, fueled by rural
prosperity. As Ishrat Husain observes, “Punjab’s farmers were Pakistan’s
economic vanguard in the 1960s, feeding the nation and its ambitions.”
Yet, beneath the sheen, cracks were forming. Both
Punjabs leaned heavily on agriculture, with industry and services playing
second fiddle. Indian Punjab’s manufacturing was limited to small-scale units,
contributing just 10% to GSDP in the 1970s. Pakistani Punjab’s textile sector,
while significant, was low-tech and export-dependent. “The seeds of stagnation
were sown in the fields of success,” quips economist Rakesh Mohan, highlighting
the irony of prosperity breeding complacency.
The Fall: From Prosperity to Paralysis
By the 1980s, the wheels began to come off. Both
Punjabs, drunk on agricultural success, missed the train to industrialization
and services, overtaken by nimbler regions. Here’s how they tripped, stumbled,
and face-planted.
Economic Missteps: The Agricultural Trap
The Green Revolution, once a blessing, became a
curse. In Indian Punjab, the rice-wheat monoculture, propped up by MSP and the
Public Distribution System (PDS), consumed 5,000 liters of water per kilogram
of rice, depleting 80% of groundwater blocks by 2020. “Punjab’s fields are a
ticking ecological time bomb,” warns agricultural economist Sukhpal Singh.
Agriculture’s share in GSDP dropped to 26% by 2020, but no robust alternative
emerged. Manufacturing stagnated at 12–14%, and services, at 40%, lagged behind
Karnataka’s 60%.
Pakistani Punjab faced a similar fate. Its wheat,
rice, and cotton focus led to soil salinity and water scarcity, with 90% of
water diverted to agriculture. Textiles, contributing 60% of Pakistan’s
exports, remained low-value, unable to compete with Bangladesh. “Punjab’s
economy is a one-trick pony, and the pony’s getting old,” says economist Akbar
Zaidi. Manufacturing accounts for just 16–18% of Pakistan’s GDP, mostly from
Punjab’s small-scale units.
Both regions failed to diversify. Indian Punjab’s
attempts at maize or pulses flopped due to weak market incentives, while
Pakistani Punjab’s agro-processing remained rudimentary. As Nirvikar Singh
notes, “Punjab’s failure to add value beyond the farm gate is its Achilles’
heel.” Low credit-deposit ratios (55% in Indian Punjab, 2021–22) and energy
shortages in Pakistan further starved investment.
Industrial and IT Blind Spots
Large-scale manufacturing never took root. In
Indian Punjab, the pre-1991 “license Raj” and freight equalization
policy—equalizing raw material transport costs—killed locational advantages.
Post-liberalization, Gujarat and Maharashtra snagged FDI with better
infrastructure, while Punjab reeled from insurgency. “Punjab missed the
industrial bus because it was busy putting out fires,” remarks economist Bibek
Debroy. Manufacturing’s share remains a paltry 13% of GSDP.
Pakistani Punjab’s industrial story is equally
grim. State-led heavy industries were built in Karachi, not Lahore, and
Punjab’s textile sector suffered from outdated technology and power outages.
“Pakistan’s industries are stuck in a 1970s time warp,” laments Ishrat Husain.
FDI inflows are negligible, with Punjab attracting less than 10% of Pakistan’s
total in 2023.
The IT revolution? Both Punjabs slept through it.
Indian Punjab’s Mohali IT hub was derailed by corruption and poor education.
Pakistani Punjab’s Lahore has a fledgling IT sector, but Pakistan’s $2.6
billion IT exports (2023) pale against India’s $150 billion. “Punjab’s
universities produce graduates, not innovators,” sighs educationist Pervez
Hoodbhoy. Services in Indian Punjab contribute 40% to GSDP, far below
Karnataka, while Pakistani Punjab’s service sector is dominated by low-skill
retail.
Political Quagmires: Governance Gone Awry
Politics played the villain in both stories.
Indian Punjab’s 1980s Khalistan insurgency, sparked by economic disparities and
mishandled by the central government, led to a decade of violence and
President’s Rule (1987–1992). “The insurgency didn’t just kill people; it
killed Punjab’s economic momentum,” says historian Gurinder Singh Mann.
Post-1992, populist subsidies (e.g., free electricity) ballooned debt to Rs
3.89 lakh crore, with a debt-to-GSDP ratio over 50%.
Pakistani Punjab faced military coups (1977, 1999)
and centralized policies that stifled regional autonomy. “Punjab’s political
dominance in Pakistan is a curse disguised as a blessing,” notes political
analyst Ayesha Siddiqa, pointing to how national security priorities
overshadowed economic planning. Corruption and feudalism further choked growth,
with landlords controlling rural economies.
Both regions suffered from policy inertia. India’s
PDS locked Indian Punjab into rice and wheat, while Pakistan’s state-controlled
industries neglected Punjab’s potential. “Populism is the opium of Punjab’s
politics,” quips economist Ruchir Sharma, highlighting the addiction to
short-term vote-buying over long-term reform.
Social Fault Lines: Brain Drain and Discontent
Social challenges compounded economic woes. In
Indian Punjab, uneven Green Revolution benefits fueled resentment, feeding the
Khalistan movement. Today, youth unemployment (17%) and drug addiction plague
the state, with 30% of youth seeking migration abroad. “Punjab’s best minds are
in Canada, not Chandigarh,” laments sociologist Surinder Jodhka.
Pakistani Punjab mirrors this. Feudal structures
limit mobility, with 59% rural literacy rates and a focus on rote learning.
Migration to the Gulf and West drains talent, and urban overcrowding in Lahore
breeds unrest. “Our youth are either unemployed or driving taxis in Dubai,”
says economist Kaiser Bengali. Both Punjabs failed to invest in education, with
declining universities unable to produce IT or industrial workforces.
Divergences: Same Script, Different Directors
While their stories rhyme, the two Punjabs dance
to slightly different tunes:
· Economic
Context: Indian Punjab operates in India’s 6–7% GDP growth economy, with a
per capita income of ~$2,500 (2023), but competes with dynamic states.
Pakistani Punjab, with a per capita income of ~$1,500, is hamstrung by
Pakistan’s 1–2% growth, high inflation, and IMF bailouts.
· Geopolitical
Realities: Indian Punjab’s proximity to Pakistan limits trade, but
integration into India’s market offers stability. Pakistani Punjab’s trade with
Afghanistan is curtailed by security issues, and its textile exports face
global competition.
· Political
Clout: Indian Punjab is a small player in India’s federal system, while
Pakistani Punjab’s 50% parliamentary seats give it outsized influence, tying
its fate to national volatility.
“Both Punjabs are stuck in agro-feudal quicksand,
but Pakistan’s is sinking faster.”
Revival or Requiem? Paths Forward
Can the two Punjabs claw their way back? Here’s
what they need, sprinkled with a dash of hope and realism:
Indian Punjab:
· Diversify
Agriculture: Shift to pulses, maize, or horticulture, reforming MSP to
incentivize sustainable crops. “Diversification is Punjab’s only path to
ecological and economic salvation,” says Sukhpal Singh. Pilot projects in
horticulture show 20% higher returns than rice.
· Industrial
and IT Push: Revive Mohali’s IT dream and develop industrial corridors.
Vocational training can address the 17% youth unemployment rate. Gujarat’s
success with SEZs offers a blueprint.
· Fiscal
Fixes: Cut subsidies and restructure debt (Rs 3.89 lakh crore). “Punjab’s
budget is a black hole of populism,” warns economist Arvind Panagariya.
· Challenges:
Political resistance to subsidy cuts and competition from other states are
steep hurdles.
Pakistani Punjab:
· Textile
Modernization: Upgrade technology and ensure reliable energy to boost
textile exports. Bangladesh’s $40 billion textile exports show what’s possible.
· IT
and Services Growth: Invest in Lahore’s IT ecosystem and education.
“Pakistan’s IT potential is untapped, but Punjab needs to lead,” says tech
entrepreneur Jehan Ara.
· Governance
Reforms: Decentralize economic decisions and curb feudal influence.
“Feudalism is Punjab’s economic albatross,” notes Akbar Zaidi.
· Challenges:
National instability and energy crises make progress a long shot.
Shared Hopes:
· Cross-Border
Trade: If India-Pakistan tensions ease, reviving trade via the Wagah border
could benefit both. Historical trade routes once made Punjab a commercial hub.
· Human
Capital: Revamp education to produce skilled workers. Karnataka’s IT
success underscores the power of education investment.
· Entrepreneurial
Spirit: Both Punjabs boast vibrant cultures. “Punjabis are born hustlers;
they just need the right stage,” says economist Montek Singh Ahluwalia.
A Tale of Missed Buses and New Roads
The two Punjabs are like siblings who aced their
school exams but flunked the real world. Their Green Revolution glory days are
a distant memory, replaced by the grim reality of ecological decay, economic
stagnation, and social drift. Indian Punjab, once India’s richest state, now
languishes as a middleweight, its fields parched and its youth dreaming of
Canadian visas. Pakistani Punjab, Pakistan’s economic anchor, is tethered to a
sinking national ship, its textile looms creaking under global pressure. The
irony is delicious: two regions blessed with fertile land, entrepreneurial
grit, and strategic locations somehow missed every economic
bus—industrialization, IT, you name it—while others sped past.
The parallels are uncanny. Both leaned too hard on
agriculture, ignoring the fine print of ecological limits and global shifts.
Governance in both is a tragicomedy of populism and corruption, with Indian
Punjab’s subsidy addiction and Pakistani Punjab’s feudal stranglehold stealing
the show. As Nirvikar Singh puts it, “Punjab’s economic model is a museum
piece, preserved in amber.” Yet, the divergences matter: Indian Punjab has
India’s growth engine to lean on, while Pakistani Punjab wrestles with a nation
on life support. One’s a middle child in a thriving family; the other’s the
eldest in a dysfunctional one.
Revival isn’t a pipe dream, but it’s no cakewalk
either. Indian Punjab can diversify crops and reboot Mohali’s IT ambitions, but
only if it kicks its subsidy habit. Pakistani Punjab needs to modernize
textiles and nurture IT, but Pakistan’s chaos looms large. Both need education
overhauls and governance that doesn’t make you want to pull your hair out.
Cross-border trade could be a game-changer—imagine trucks rolling through
Wagah, reviving old Silk Road vibes—but geopolitics is the ultimate buzzkill.
Hope lies in their people. Punjabis, on both
sides, are scrappy, resilient, and allergic to giving up. If leaders can match
that spirit with bold reforms, the two Punjabs could yet rewrite their stories.
Without action, though, they’ll remain cautionary tales—breadbaskets turned
backwaters, forever lamenting the buses they missed. As @ThePerilousGirl on X
quips, “Punjab’s stuck in a time loop, farming yesterday’s dreams while the
world moves on.” It’s time to break the loop.
References
1. Singh,
Nirvikar. “Punjab’s Economic Crisis: A Structural Analysis.” Economic &
Political Weekly, 2016.
2. Husain,
Ishrat. Pakistan: The Economy of an Elitist State. Oxford University
Press, 2019.
3. Singh,
Sukhpal. “Agricultural Sustainability in Punjab.” Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 2018.
4. Mohan,
Rakesh. “India’s Growth Story: The Role of States.” India Review, 2015.
5. Zaidi,
Akbar. Issues in Pakistan’s Economy. Oxford University Press, 2015.
6. Debroy,
Bibek. “Economic Reforms and Regional Disparities.” Business Standard,
2017.
7. Hoodbhoy,
Pervez. “Pakistan’s Education Crisis.” Dawn, 2020.
8. Siddiqa,
Ayesha. Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy. Pluto Press,
2017.
9. Sharma,
Ruchir. The Rise and Fall of Nations. W.W. Norton, 2016.
10. Jodhka,
Surinder. “Punjab’s Social Crisis: Beyond the Economic.” Seminar, 2019.
11. Bengali,
Kaiser. “Pakistan’s Economic Challenges.” The Express Tribune, 2022.
12. Panagariya,
Arvind. India: The Emerging Giant. Oxford University Press, 2008.
13. Ara, Jehan.
“Pakistan’s IT Potential.” Pakistan Today, 2023.
14. Ahluwalia,
Montek Singh. “Economic Reforms in India.” Journal of Economic Perspectives,
2002.
15. Government
of Punjab (India). Economic Survey 2021–22. Chandigarh, 2022.
16. Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics. Pakistan Economic Survey 2022–23. Islamabad, 2023.
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