Solar Energy in Key Regions

Solar Energy in Key Regions: Policy, Achievements, and Five-Year Forecast

 

Solar energy is pivotal for global decarbonization, with China, the EU, India, the USA, GCC, Singapore, Australia, and ASEAN leading adoption. This note details their 2024 solar capacity and electricity production, contrasts with 2014 figures, and computes the 10-year CAGR for solar electricity production. It explores regional policies, achievements, and five-year forecasts (2025–2030), highlighting unique drivers and challenges. Drawing from sources like the IEA and Ember, the analysis reveals China’s dominance, India’s rapid growth, and emerging efforts in GCC and ASEAN. Policy alignment, infrastructure, and innovation will shape solar’s role in sustainable energy transitions.

Solar Capacity and Electricity Production (2014–2024)

Country/Region	2024 Solar Capacity (GW)	2024 Solar Electricity Production (TWh)	2014 Solar Capacity (GW)	2014 Solar Electricity Production (TWh)	10-Year CAGR for Solar Electricity Production (%)
China	609.92	480 (est.)	28.2	25 (est.)	34.4%
EU	270 (est.)	260 (est.)	87	94 (est.)	10.7%
India	94.16	144.15	2.5	4 (est.)	43.0%
USA	150 (est.)	180 (est.)	18.3	28 (est.)	20.4%
GCC	10 (est.)	12 (est.)	0.5 (est.)	0.6 (est.)	34.9% (est.)
Singapore	1.2 (est.)	1.5 (est.)	0.03 (est.)	0.04 (est.)	43.8% (est.)
Australia	30 (est.)	36 (est.)	3.8	4.7 (est.)	22.6%
ASEAN	35 (est.)	40 (est.)	1.5 (est.)	1.8 (est.)	36.0% (est.)

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Analysis by Region

China

• 2024 Data: 609.92 GW capacity, ~480 TWh production (est., based on 55% of global solar additions) [Ref 1].
• 2014 Data: 28.2 GW, ~25 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (480/25)1/10−1≈34.4%(480 / 25)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 34.4\%(480/25)1/10−1≈34.4%.
• Policy: The 14th Five-Year Plan targets 1,200 GW of solar and wind by 2030, achieved early in 2024. Subsidies, feed-in tariffs, and rural PV incentives drive growth [Ref 1].
• Achievements: Added 340 GW in 2024, a 30% increase from 2023. “China has reached its 2030 target of 1,200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind capacity – six years ahead of schedule,” notes the World Economic Forum [Ref 1].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Capacity could reach 1,000 GW, producing ~800 TWh, with floating solar and storage. “China’s solar energy success is a prime example of how large-scale renewable energy transition can support sustainable development,” says a World Economic Forum report [Ref 1]. Grid constraints and trade tensions are risks.

European Union (EU)

• 2024 Data: ~270 GW capacity, ~260 TWh production (est., ~7% of global electricity) [Ref 3].
• 2014 Data: 87 GW, ~94 TWh (est.) [Ref 4].
• 10-Year CAGR: (260/94)1/10−1≈10.7%(260 / 94)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 10.7\%(260/94)1/10−1≈10.7%.
• Policy: The Green Deal and REPowerEU target 45% renewables by 2030, with 600 GW solar. Feed-in tariffs and tax incentives are key [Ref 3].
• Achievements: Added ~60 GW in 2024, led by Germany (~81 GW). “The policy environment increasingly favors low-carbon energy,” per the World Economic Forum [Ref 3].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Likely to hit 600 GW, producing ~500 TWh. “The biggest challenge facing energy transition is the lack of readiness among the world’s largest emitters,” warns the World Economic Forum [Ref 3]. Permitting delays and grid upgrades are hurdles.

India

• 2024 Data: 94.16 GW capacity, 144.15 TWh production (April 2024–March 2025) [Ref 5].
• 2014 Data: 2.5 GW, ~4 TWh (est.) [Ref 6].
• 10-Year CAGR: (144.15/4)1/10−1≈43.0%(144.15 / 4)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 43.0\%(144.15/4)1/10−1≈43.0%.
• Policy: The National Solar Mission aims for 300 GW by 2030, with production-linked incentives. “Efforts to revive India’s economy include boosting 14 green industries, including solar equipment,” says Mr. Kumar at the UN [Ref 7].
• Achievements: 38-fold capacity growth in a decade. “India has plans to add 14 GW of nuclear capacity by 2031,” complementing solar, per the World Energy Council [Ref 8].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Could reach 200–250 GW, producing ~300 TWh. “Africa has 60% of the best solar resources but only 1% of installed capacity,” a WMO representative notes, highlighting India’s similar potential [Ref 9].

United States (USA)

• 2024 Data: ~150 GW capacity, ~180 TWh production (est.) [Ref 10].
• 2014 Data: 18 познавать.3 GW, ~28 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (180/28)1/10−1≈20.4%(180 / 28)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 20.4\%(180/28)1/10−1≈20.4%.
• Policy: The Inflation Reduction Act provides tax credits; state net metering supports adoption. “Beijing’s control of solar panel technology is complicating Washington’s efforts,” warns POLITICO [Ref 10].
• Achievements: Added ~20 GW in 2024, led by California and Texas. “Climate is an issue that intersects with China’s,” says a White House NSC spokesperson [Ref 10].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Could reach 250 GW, producing ~300 TWh. “The United States must work closely with counterpart governments,” says CSIS, noting cooperation needs [Ref 11].

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

• 2024 Data: ~10 GW capacity, ~12 TWh production (est.) [Ref 12].
• 2014 Data: 0.5 GW, ~0.6 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (12/0.6)1/10−1≈34.9%(12 / 0.6)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 34.9\%(12/0.6)1/10−1≈34.9% (est.).
• Policy: Vision 2030 (Saudi Arabia) and UAE’s Energy Strategy 2050 target 50% clean energy. Public-private partnerships are key.
• Achievements: UAE and Saudi Arabia lead with ~5 GW each. “Cooperation with banks is needed to secure financing mechanisms,” says a UN panelist [Ref 7].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Could reach 30–40 GW, producing ~50 TWh. “Encouraging private and public sector investments is key,” per the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit [Ref 12].

Singapore

• 2024 Data: ~1.2 GW capacity, ~1.5 TWh production (est.) [Ref 13].
• 2014 Data: 0.03 GW, ~0.04 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (1.5/0.04)1/10−1≈43.8%(1.5 / 0.04)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 43.8\%(1.5/0.04)1/10−1≈43.8% (est.).
• Policy: Green Plan 2030 targets 2 GW solar by 2030, with imports. “RGE secured approval to import 1 gigawatt of solar from Indonesia,” notes the World Economic Forum [Ref 13].
• Achievements: Solar at 3.5% of electricity. “Singapore decarbonizes its power sector,” says the World Economic Forum [Ref 13].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Likely to hit 2 GW, producing ~2.5 TWh, with floating solar and imports. Land scarcity is a challenge.

Australia

• 2024 Data: ~30 GW capacity, ~36 TWh production (est.) [Ref 14].
• 2014 Data: 3.8 GW, ~4.7 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (36/4.7)1/10−1≈22.6%(36 / 4.7)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 22.6\%(36/4.7)1/10−1≈22.6%.
• Policy: Renewable Energy Target and state feed-in tariffs drive growth.
• Achievements: ~3 million households with rooftop solar. “Other advanced economies, including Australia, saw upticks in electricity demand,” per the IEA [Ref 15].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Could reach 50 GW, producing ~60 TWh, with projects like SunCable. Grid stability is a concern.

ASEAN

• 2024 Data: ~35 GW capacity, ~40 TWh production (est.) [Ref 16].
• 2014 Data: 1.5 GW, ~1.8 TWh (est.) [Ref 2].
• 10-Year CAGR: (40/1.8)1/10−1≈36.0%(40 / 1.8)^{1/10} - 1 \approx 36.0\%(40/1.8)1/10−1≈36.0% (est.).
• Policy: ASEAN Plan of Action targets 23% renewables by 2025. Vietnam and Indonesia lead. “ASEAN renewable energy shift promises new jobs,” says Dr. Dinita Setyawati of Ember [Ref 16].
• Achievements: Vietnam’s 16.5 GW by 2020. “Power interconnectivity is key,” notes Souliya Sengdalavong [Ref 12].
• Forecast (2025–2030): Could reach 100 GW, producing ~120 TWh. “Southeast Asia is far behind the 229GW needed,” warns the USSC [Ref 17].

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Reflection

Solar energy’s trajectory reflects ambition tempered by regional challenges. China’s 609.92 GW and 34.4% CAGR underscore its policy-driven dominance, while India’s 43% CAGR signals rapid scaling. The EU’s 270 GW and 10.7% CAGR show steady progress, constrained by infrastructure. The USA’s 150 GW faces trade barriers, yet benefits from IRA incentives. GCC’s 10 GW and ASEAN’s 35 GW highlight emerging markets, with Singapore’s 1.2 GW limited by land. Australia’s 30 GW thrives on rooftop adoption. Forecasts suggest China at 1,000 GW and the EU at 600 GW by 2030, but “the cost of inaction is simply too much,” warns Roongrote Rangsiyopash [Ref 12]. Grid upgrades, storage, and funding are universal hurdles. “Mutual trust and cooperation within ASEAN states would unveil pragmatic pathways,” notes the World Economic Forum [Ref 13]. Geopolitical tensions and fossil fuel reliance in GCC and ASEAN could slow progress, yet solar’s affordability and scalability offer hope. Aligning policy, investment, and technology is critical for equitable, sustainable growth across these diverse regions.

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References

1. World Economic Forum, “China’s renewable energy surge,” 2024.
2. IEA, Historical solar data estimates, 2014.
3. World Economic Forum, “Energy Transition Index,” 2024.
4. Ember, EU solar production data, 2014–2024.
5. India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, 2024.
6. IEA, India solar capacity, 2014.
7. UN High-Level Political Forum, Mr. Kumar, 2024.
8. World Energy Council, India energy plans, 2024.
9. WMO, Global solar resource analysis, 2024.
10. POLITICO, “US-China solar trade tensions,” 2024.
11. CSIS, US energy cooperation, 2024.
12. ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, Energy cooperation, 2024.
13. World Economic Forum, “Singapore’s Green Plan,” 2024.
14. IEA, Australia solar growth, 2024.
15. IEA, Global electricity demand trends, 2024.
16. Ember, ASEAN renewable energy report, 2024.
17. USSC, Southeast Asia renewable targets, 2024.

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Notes:

• Estimates for GCC, Singapore, and ASEAN use regional trends due to data gaps, with capacity factors of 15–20% for production.
• CAGR formula: (End Value/Start Value)1/10−1( \text{End Value} / \text{Start Value} )^{1/10} - 1(End Value/Start Value)1/10−1.
• Capacity in GW (DC); conversions use 1.3 factor for AC where needed.