Amit's Blog

India’s ASEAN Ambition: Unlocking a $80-100 Billion Trade Frontier India’s trade with ASEAN, a $3.6 trillion economic juggernaut, has surged over two decades, yet its full potential remains untapped. From $10.4 billion in 2005, India’s merchandise exports to ASEAN hit $46.5 billion in 2024, driven by chemicals, base metals, and machinery, but a $43.7 billion trade deficit persists due to $90.2 billion in imports. Service exports, led by IT, reached $11.5 billion but lag globally. High logistics costs, limited global value chain (GVC) integration, and non-tariff barriers hinder competitiveness, while service exports face regulatory constraints. Over the next 5–7 years, pharmaceuticals, electronics, base metals, halal food, and IT services could drive exports to $80–100 billion, leveraging ASEAN’s healthcare, digital, and infrastructure booms. Strategic reforms—PLI schemes, infrastructure like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and deeper AIFTA integration—are vital to tran...

India’s Manufacturing Mess: Big Firms Fumble, Government Flounders, Yet Hope Persists India’s manufacturing sector is a frustrating paradox: immense potential crippled by incompetence and inertia. Large firms like Tata and Foxconn, despite pockets of success ($12–$15/hour PPP productivity), are timid, underinvesting in automation and training while trailing China ($30–$35/hour) and Vietnam ($15–$20/hour). MSMEs, 99% of firms, are stuck in the Stone Age, scraping by at $3–$5/hour due to zero capital and outdated tech. The government’s Make in India and PLI schemes are half-baked, drowned in red tape and corruption, with only $15 billion in FDI impact. Infrastructure—creaky power, costly land, and sluggish ports (13–14% GDP logistics costs)—is a national embarrassment. Yet, $20.5 billion in electronics exports and 50% of global vaccine production show India’s not dead yet. Large firms must stop coasting, the government needs to wake up, and systemic fixes are non-negotiable to catch Vi...