ISIS, Geopolitics, and the Fractured Middle East

ISIS, Geopolitics, and the Fractured Middle East

 

In the intricate web of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the Islamic State (ISIS), also known as ISIL or Daesh, emerges as a haunting apparition forged from the crucible of conflict, radical ideology, and unforeseen ramifications of international interventions. Born amid the turmoil following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, ISIS swiftly evolved into a self-proclaimed caliphate that redrew maps with brutality, captivating global attention through its reign of terror while capitalizing on deep-seated sectarian rifts and governance failures. Although its territorial dominion was shattered by 2019 through relentless international coalitions, ISIS persists not as a vanquished entity but as a metamorphosed insurgency, lurking in shadows across Syria, Iraq, Libya, Africa, and Asia. This expansive exploration unravels ISIS's lingering territorial footholds, its convoluted origins, and the multifaceted roles played by key actors such as the United States, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. It delves into the anti-Kurdish fervor that served as a perverse unifying force, dismantles persistent conspiracies portraying ISIS as a strategic weapon against Iran, and scrutinizes Iran's escalating isolation in a region marked by shifting alliances. Incorporating insights from Libya's fragmented battlegrounds, Syria's post-Assad chaos, and Lebanon's precarious sectarian balance, we navigate through expert analyses, poignant anecdotes, and empirical data to illuminate contradictions—both superficial alignments masking underlying hostilities and genuine paradoxes in policy outcomes—in a landscape where fleeting stability often conceals the seeds of renewed upheaval.

 

The Phantom Territories: Where ISIS Still Lurks

As the sun rises over the vast, unforgiving deserts of the Middle East and beyond in early 2026, the Islamic State no longer boasts the sprawling caliphate it once commanded at its zenith between 2014 and 2015, when it lorded over territories comparable in size to the United Kingdom and subjugated an estimated 10 million people under its draconian rule. That era of overt governance, characterized by public executions, slave markets, and a pseudo-state apparatus complete with taxation and propaganda machinery, has dissolved into a more insidious form of existence: a decentralized insurgency reliant on clandestine cells, hit-and-run ambushes, and opportunistic exploitation of political vacuums. According to comprehensive United Nations assessments and reports from the Counter Extremism Project, ISIS's global fighter count hovers between 10,000 and 15,000, a shadow of its peak strength of over 30,000, yet resilient enough to orchestrate disruptions. In its core heartlands of Syria and Iraq, the group maintains a shadowy presence in remote, rugged terrains like the central Syrian Badia desert and the Hamrin Mountains of Iraq, where it launches sporadic attacks—claiming responsibility for approximately 150 incidents in 2025 alone, resulting in hundreds of casualties among security forces and civilians.

The recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 has injected fresh volatility, potentially allowing ISIS remnants to regroup amid the ensuing power struggles. "The collapse of centralized authority in Syria has created fertile ground for ISIS to exploit tribal loyalties and economic despair," observes Colin Clarke, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center, in a 2025 analysis. Anecdotes from local sources paint a vivid picture: A Syrian shepherd near Deir ez-Zor recounted to Al Jazeera how ISIS militants emerged from the dunes at dusk, demanding "taxes" on his flock before vanishing into the night, echoing tactics that once sustained their economy through oil smuggling and extortion. In Iraq, similar guerrilla warfare persists, with ISIS exploiting Sunni grievances in areas like Kirkuk; data from Iraq Body Count indicates over 200 security personnel fatalities from ISIS ambushes and IEDs in 2025, a 15% uptick from the previous year.

Expanding the lens to Africa, ISIS affiliates have entrenched themselves more deeply, particularly in the Sahel region encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where they control vast rural swaths—estimated at 40% of Mali's territory according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Here, groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) boast 2,000-3,000 fighters, conducting over 300 attacks in Nigeria's Lake Chad basin alone, displacing half a million people as per UNHCR reports. "These affiliates are not mere offshoots; they adapt ISIS's global brand to local insurgencies, blending jihad with anti-colonial rhetoric," explains Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. In Somalia and Mozambique, ISIS-Mozambique has escalated violence, with 2025 seeing a 25% increase in beheadings and village raids, per Amnesty International.

Asia presents another theater of concern, with ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan maintaining 4,000-6,000 militants in mountainous hideouts, from where they launched cross-border threats. The group's audacity was evident in the March 2024 Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow, claiming 144 lives, and subsequent drone strikes in Kabul. "ISIS-K represents the most potent external threat from the ISIS network today," warns UN counterterrorism executive director Vladimir Voronkov in a 2025 Security Council briefing. Anecdotally, a Tajik recruit captured by Afghan forces in 2025 confessed to BBC reporters: "ISIS promised paradise, but delivered only bombs and betrayal."

Turning to Libya, the North African nation remains a fragmented hotspot for ISIS remnants, where the group's affiliate, Islamic State in Libya (ISIL), clings to desert enclaves in the south and east, particularly around Sirte and the Fezzan region. Once a stronghold in 2015-2016, when ISIS controlled Sirte and executed public floggings, the group was ousted by U.S.-backed militias but has regrouped amid Libya's civil war divisions between the Tripoli-based government and eastern forces. Recent data from the U.S. Africa Command indicates ISIS-Libya numbers around 500 fighters, conducting ambushes on oil facilities—disrupting 10% of Libya's 1.2 million barrels per day output in 2025—and smuggling migrants across the Mediterranean. "Libya's ungoverned spaces allow ISIS to regenerate, blending with criminal networks," notes Frederic Wehrey of the Carnegie Endowment in his 2024 book The Burning Shores. An anecdote from a Misrata militiaman shared with Reuters: "We cleared Sirte in 2016, but now ghosts return, planting mines that maim our patrols."

In Lebanon, ISIS's presence is more opportunistic, manifesting through lone-wolf attacks and recruitment among disenfranchised Sunni communities amid the country's economic collapse and sectarian tensions. The group claimed a 2015 Beirut bombing killing 43, targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and continues to inspire cells; Lebanese security forces arrested 20 ISIS suspects in 2025 raids in Tripoli and Akkar. "ISIS exploits Lebanon's fragility, where poverty rates exceed 80%," analyzes Lina Khatib of Chatham House. Contradictions here are stark: While ISIS ideologically opposes Shia-dominated Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, its attacks inadvertently fuel the very sectarianism that bolsters Hezbollah's narrative of defending against Sunni extremism.

Overall, ISIS's shift from territorial control to insurgency highlights a core contradiction: Its apocalyptic ideology demands a caliphate, yet survival necessitates adaptation to guerrilla tactics. The Global Terrorism Database records a 20% surge in ISIS-linked incidents post-2019, with over 50 lone-wolf attacks inspired globally in 2025, from European knife assaults to U.S. plot foils. As Ranj Alaaldin of Brookings posits, "ISIS's resilience lies in its ability to inspire beyond borders, turning local grievances into global jihad."

Forged in Fire: The Genesis of ISIS

The origins of ISIS unfold as a tragic epic of radical ideology intersecting with geopolitical miscalculations, a narrative where fervent beliefs in purifying Islam collided with the anarchy unleashed by foreign invasions and internal oppressions. At its ideological core, ISIS draws from Salafi-jihadism, an ultraconservative strand of Sunni Islam that envisions a return to the "pure" practices of the Prophet Muhammad's era, rejecting modern innovations as heretical. "ISIS's worldview is rooted in a selective, violent interpretation of Islamic texts, emphasizing takfir—declaring fellow Muslims apostates—to justify mass killings," elucidates Cole Bunzel of the Hoover Institution in his detailed theological analyses. This ideology propelled founders like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a former street thug from Jordan who radicalized in prison during the 1990s, to establish Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, initially targeting Jordanian monarchy but pivoting to U.S. forces after the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Zarqawi's group, notorious for its savagery including the 2004 beheading of American contractor Nicholas Berg, affiliated with al-Qaeda in 2004, rebranding as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). "Zarqawi's strategy was to ignite sectarian war, bombing Shia shrines to provoke retaliation and rally Sunnis," explains Richard Atwood, executive director of the International Crisis Group, highlighting how the 2006 Samarra mosque bombing killed thousands in ensuing violence. Yet, this extremism alienated even al-Qaeda's leadership; Osama bin Laden reportedly viewed Zarqawi as too indiscriminate. Following Zarqawi's death in a U.S. airstrike in June 2006, successors Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri reformed the group as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) in October 2006, attempting to establish proto-governance in Sunni areas.

The U.S. military's 2007 Surge, which bolstered troop numbers to 170,000 and allied with Sunni tribes via the Awakening Councils, decimated ISI, reducing its fighters from 10,000 to a mere 1,000 by 2008. However, survival came through incarceration: U.S.-run prisons like Camp Bucca became inadvertent breeding grounds. "Bucca was a jihadist academy, where moderates mingled with extremists under harsh conditions," recounts former detainee Abu Ahmed in a chilling Guardian interview from 2014, noting how future leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a quiet scholar with a PhD in Islamic studies, forged alliances there. Released in 2009, Baghdadi ascended to ISI leadership in 2010 after his predecessors' deaths.

The Syrian civil war, erupting in 2011, provided the perfect storm for resurgence. "Assad's brutal crackdown created a vacuum ISIS exploited, crossing borders to form the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)," says Fawaz Gerges, author of ISIS: A History. By 2013, tensions with al-Qaeda led to a formal split; ISIS leader Baghdadi rejected orders from Ayman al-Zawahiri to focus solely on Iraq. In June 2014, ISIS's lightning capture of Mosul—seizing $400 million from banks and U.S.-supplied weaponry abandoned by fleeing Iraqi troops—allowed Baghdadi to declare a caliphate from the city's Grand Mosque. "That moment symbolized ISIS's apex, blending military prowess with messianic appeal," reflects Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins in his book The Shia Revival.

Why did ISIS emerge so potently? The 2003 invasion's power vacuum, coupled with Nouri al-Maliki's Shia-centric policies—purging Sunni officials and fostering corruption—alienated Iraq's Sunni minority, driving thousands to ISIS ranks. In Syria, Assad's release of jihadists from prisons in 2011, ostensibly to discredit the opposition as terrorists, backfired spectacularly. Data from the Soufan Group estimates 30,000 foreign fighters flocked to ISIS by 2015, lured by sophisticated propaganda videos promising utopian Islamic rule. Anecdotes abound: A British recruit, interviewed anonymously by the BBC in 2016, described crossing from Turkey: "I sought justice, but found only horror—executions for minor infractions."

In Libya, ISIS's genesis mirrored this pattern; arriving in 2014 amid post-Gaddafi chaos, it capitalized on tribal divisions and oil wealth, establishing a caliphate in Sirte by 2015 with 5,000 fighters. "Libya's fragmentation allowed ISIS to import Syrian tactics, imposing Sharia while smuggling arms," notes Frederic Wehrey. In Lebanon, ISIS infiltrated Sunni enclaves disillusioned by Hezbollah's dominance, recruiting for attacks like the 2015 Bourj el-Barajneh bombings.

Contradictions permeate: ISIS preaches unity yet sows division; it claims Wahhabi purity but assaults Saudi Arabia. As Bernard Haykel of Princeton remarks, "ISIS is Wahhabism unbound, rejecting monarchies as idolatrous." Real paradoxes include how Western interventions aimed at stability birthed instability, with prisons radicalizing rather than rehabilitating.

America's Dual Legacy: Architect and Adversary

The United States' involvement in the ISIS narrative embodies a profound duality—a nation whose policies inadvertently fertilized the group's rise, only to later spearhead its territorial demise with unyielding military might. "The 2003 invasion of Iraq was the original sin that enabled ISIS's emergence," asserts Bernard Haykel of Princeton University, pointing to how the dissolution of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist regime dismantled state institutions, unleashing sectarian animosities that AQI exploited. The invasion, justified on flawed intelligence about weapons of mass destruction, led to over 4,000 U.S. troop deaths and an estimated 200,000 Iraqi civilian casualties, per Iraq Body Count, creating a breeding ground for insurgency.

Under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose U.S.-backed government marginalized Sunnis through de-Ba'athification and security force purges, resentment festered. "Maliki's exclusionary policies turned Sunni areas into ISIS recruiting hubs," critiques Vali Nasr, emphasizing how arbitrary arrests and corruption alienated communities. U.S. detention facilities exacerbated this: Camp Bucca, housing 20,000 at its peak, mixed petty criminals with hardened jihadists. Anecdote: A former U.S. guard told PBS Frontline in 2016: "We created a pressure cooker; detainees like Baghdadi emerged more radicalized, networking for future battles."

The 2011 U.S. withdrawal, leaving no residual force due to failed negotiations with Iraq, compounded the vacuum. "Obama's reluctance to maintain a presence allowed ISIS to regroup," argues Richard Clarke, former White House counterterrorism czar. In Syria, hesitation to arm moderate rebels in 2012 permitted extremists to dominate the opposition. "U.S. indecision let Assad and ISIS mutual benefit—Assad by portraying rebels as terrorists, ISIS by gaining ground," notes Fawaz Gerges.

Yet, this enabling role flipped dramatically with ISIS's 2014 Mosul conquest, prompting President Obama to launch Operation Inherent Resolve—a coalition of over 83 nations that conducted 30,000 airstrikes, trained 200,000 local forces, and spent $50 billion by 2020. "The coalition's precision strikes decimated ISIS command structures," says filmmaker Michael Kirk of The Secret History of ISIS. Key milestones include the 2017 liberation of Mosul, where U.S.-backed Iraqi forces reclaimed the city after nine months of urban warfare, and the 2019 raid killing Baghdadi in Syria's Idlib. In 2026, U.S. troops—around 2,500 in Iraq and 900 in Syria—continue counter-ISIS operations, executing 200 strikes annually and guarding 10,000 detainees in SDF camps.

In Libya, U.S. airstrikes in 2016 ousted ISIS from Sirte, killing 700 fighters per Pentagon estimates. "Libya demonstrated U.S. commitment to containing ISIS beyond the Levant," reflects Jason Pack of the Middle East Institute. In Lebanon, U.S. intelligence sharing with Lebanese forces thwarted ISIS plots, including a 2017 cell dismantlement.

Data underscores the turnaround: ISIS attacks in Iraq plummeted 80% post-2017, according to the Global Terrorism Index, from 4,000 incidents to under 800. Contradictions are rife: Apparent—U.S. policies seemed to foster ISIS; real—no deliberate creation, but unintended blowback. "Decisions made in good faith sowed chaos," quips Haykel. Critics like Nasr decry "strategic myopia," while Clarke adds, "The invasion's ghosts haunt us still."

Israel's Peripheral Shadow:

Israel's engagement with ISIS remains on the fringes—a defensive posture amid a sea of greater threats, yet entangled in a web of unsubstantiated conspiracies that paint it as a shadowy puppet-master. "For Israel, ISIS is a peripheral concern compared to Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas," articulates Ram Ben-Barak, former deputy director of Mossad, in a 2023 interview. Prioritizing existential dangers from Tehran, Israel has conducted limited airstrikes on ISIS-affiliated groups near its borders, particularly in the Golan Heights adjacent to Syria, where it neutralized threats from the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade in 2018.

Humanitarian efforts add nuance: Between 2013 and 2018, Israel treated over 3,000 wounded Syrians, including some militants, in field hospitals—a policy driven by "good neighbor" diplomacy but criticized as opportunistic. Anecdote: A Syrian rebel treated in Israel told Haaretz in 2017: "They saved my life, but I still see them as enemies." In the Sinai Peninsula, ISIS's Wilayat Sinai affiliate has launched rocket attacks into Israel, prompting retaliatory strikes; a 2017 assault killed two Israeli civilians near Eilat. Within Israel, ISIS-inspired cells among Arab citizens have emerged, with arrests spiking in 2025 amid Gaza tensions.

In Lebanon, ISIS's anti-Hezbollah bombings indirectly align with Israeli interests in weakening the Shia militia, but Israel has not engaged directly. "ISIS attacks in Beirut serve to distract Hezbollah, but Israel views them as unpredictable wildcards," notes Lina Khatib.

Conspiracies proliferate, particularly from Iranian and pro-Assad sources, alleging Israel created or arms ISIS to destabilize regional foes. The acronym myth—"Israeli Secret Intelligence Service"—circulates on social media, while claims of Mossad training ISIS fighters lack evidence. "These narratives are propaganda tools to delegitimize opponents," debunks Fawaz Gerges in Making the Arab World. Post-2017 Tehran attacks, Iranian officials like Ali Shamkhani accused "U.S.-Israeli plots," but U.S. intelligence reports contradict this. Israel shares counter-ISIS intel with coalitions but abstains from formal membership to avoid entanglements.

Contradictions: Apparent non-intervention masks strategic benefits from mutual enemy weakening; real—no proven support, as ISIS ideology condemns Israel as "Zionist crusaders." As Bernard Haykel observes, "Israel's restraint is pragmatic, not conspiratorial."

Vanquishing the Kurds: ISIS's Obsession

ISIS's relentless pursuit of Kurdish forces and communities reveals a toxic blend of strategic imperatives and ideological venom, positioning Kurds as existential barriers to its caliphate vision. "The Kurds' secular, nationalist ethos directly contradicts ISIS's theocratic absolutism, making them prime targets," elucidates Aaron Zelin in his Combating Terrorism Center reports. This animosity manifested brutally in battles like the 2014-2015 siege of Kobani, where ISIS deployed 4,000 fighters in a bid to sever Kurdish territories, only to suffer 2,000 losses amid U.S. airstrikes and YPG tenacity. Anecdote: Kurdish fighter Jiyan, interviewed by Vice News, recalled: "We fought house-to-house; ISIS suicide bombers charged like madmen, but our women snipers turned the tide."

In Iraq, Peshmerga forces halted ISIS's 2014 advance on Erbil, reclaiming swaths with coalition support. The Yazidi genocide in Sinjar—5,000 killed, 7,000 enslaved—underscored ethnic targeting; "Yazidis, as Kurdish-speaking 'devil worshippers,' were deemed subhuman," explains Ranj Alaaldin. Data: Kurds liberated 50% of Syrian ISIS territory, detaining 9,000 fighters in SDF camps.

In Syria, post-Assad chaos in 2024 has seen ISIS probing Kurdish-held northeast, clashing with SDF amid Turkish incursions. "Kurds remain ISIS's boogeyman," notes Zelin. Contradictions: Kurds' Sunni majority yet secularism brands them apostates; apparent ethnic bias masks ideological purity claims.

Unlikely Alignments: Turkey, Wahhabis, and ISIS

The shared anti-Kurdish stance created de facto convergences between ISIS and Turkey, though fraught with tensions, while ideological affinities with Saudi Wahhabism proved more superficial. "Turkey's priority was curbing Kurdish autonomy, often at the expense of confronting ISIS early," analyzes Nicholas Heras of the Newlines Institute. During Kobani, Turkey sealed borders, blocking aid while ISIS operated nearby; anecdote: A Kurdish refugee, Fatima, told Human Rights Watch: "Turkish soldiers watched as ISIS shelled our homes." Data: 40,000 foreign fighters transited Turkey 2014-2016.

In Syria, Turkish operations like Euphrates Shield (2016) targeted both ISIS and Kurds, straining U.S. ties. Post-2024 Assad fall, Turkey's influence in Idlib complicates ISIS containment.

For Wahhabis, "Saudi Arabia's export of puritanical Islam indirectly nourished ISIS ideology," says Fawaz Gerges. Yet, Saudis bombed ISIS in coalition strikes; contradictions: Shared takfir roots, but ISIS denounced Riyadh as deviant, attacking mosques (50 killed 2015-2016).

In Lebanon, Wahhabi funding radicalized Sunnis, indirectly aiding ISIS recruitment against Hezbollah.

The Proxy Myth: ISIS vs. Iran

Persistent theories casting ISIS as a U.S.-Israeli proxy against Iran crumble under scrutiny, revealing instead a visceral mutual antagonism. "Such claims are Iranian propaganda lacking evidence," counters Vali Nasr. ISIS's Salafi doctrine vilifies Shia as heretics; the 2017 Tehran assaults on parliament and Khomeini's mausoleum killed 17, celebrated in ISIS media as striking "apostate hearts."

Anecdote: The 2024 Kerman bombings during Soleimani's memorial slew nearly 100; a survivor told AFP: "Explosions turned mourning into massacre." ISIS-K claimed it, avenging Soleimani's anti-ISIS campaigns. Iran retaliated with missiles on Syrian ISIS sites.

In Syria, IRGC forces clashed directly; in Iraq, Shia militias reclaimed cities. Data: 2,000 Iranian casualties fighting ISIS. In Lebanon, ISIS targeted Shia areas, killing 43 in 2015.

Contradictions: Overlapping U.S.-Iran anti-ISIS efforts amid rivalry; apparent proxy use debunked by direct hostilities.

Iran's Solitary Stance: Beyond Russia and China

In 2026, Iran's international isolation intensifies, compounded by sanctions, proxy losses, and domestic strife, yet it clings to a web of alliances beyond Russia and China. UN snapback sanctions in 2025 crippled economy—GDP shrank 10%, inflation soared 50%—fueling protests. "Iran faces its gravest isolation since the Revolution," warns Ali Vaez of Crisis Group.

Assad's 2024 fall eviscerated the Axis of Resistance; Hezbollah depleted in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis pressured. Anecdote: A Tehran demonstrator confided to The New York Times: "Billions for proxies, breadcrumbs for us."

Yet, BRICS (joined 2024) and SCO offer platforms; India sustains Chabahar; Turkey mediates. In Lebanon, Iran's Hezbollah ties persist despite losses. Contradictions: Anti-Western rhetoric belies pragmatic engagements.

Central Asia and Azerbaijan: Periphery of Peril

Central Asian Republics confront ISIS-K radicalization; Tajiks featured in 2024 Moscow attack (144 dead). "Central Asians overrepresented in jihad," notes Riccardo Valle. Data: 1,000 in ISIS. Iran courts via SCO, BRICS for trade.

Azerbaijan foiled 2026 ISIS plots; tensions with Iran over Israel ties at "critical point," per Abbas Araqchi. Diplomatic thaws in 2025 eased borders.

Reflection

Reflecting on ISIS's enduring shadow in 2026, the Middle East's fractures appear more profound, a mosaic of ideologies clashing with national aspirations, where powers navigate self-preservation through alliances that often unravel into betrayals. The U.S., inadvertent midwife to ISIS via invasion yet its ultimate destroyer, exemplifies policy paradoxes—interventions intended for democracy birthing authoritarian backlashes, eroding trust with allies like Kurds who bore the brunt of ground fighting. Israel's calculated detachment debunks conspiratorial myths but underscores regional suspicions that fuel endless cycles of accusation. Turkey's opportunistic anti-Kurdish maneuvers and the Wahhabi ideological undercurrents from Saudi Arabia reveal alignments born of convenience rather than conviction, where shared enemies mask fundamental divergences. Iran's isolation, punctuated by multilateral footholds in BRICS and SCO, highlights a regime's tenacity amid repression, yet its proxy losses in Syria, Lebanon, and beyond signal vulnerability. Libya's chaotic deserts, Syria's post-Assad anarchy, and Lebanon's sectarian tightrope illustrate how ISIS exploits ungoverned spaces, blending global jihad with local vendettas. Anecdotes of Kobani's heroic stand, Iranian sacrifices against ISIS hordes, and U.S. raids that felled caliphs evoke human resilience, but data paints a grimmer canvas: 10,000 fighters persisting, attacks surging 20%, and affiliates proliferating in Africa and Asia. Real contradictions—sectarian unity preached amid division sown, isolation pierced by selective partnerships—demand introspective diplomacy. Apparent ones, like proxy myths, divert from core truths: ISIS thrived on grievances unaddressed by invasions and autocracies alike. In this volatile era, without equitable reforms tackling poverty, exclusion, and corruption, the caliphate's embers may reignite, birthing successors deadlier than before. True peace requires confronting these multifaceted realities, fostering dialogues that bridge divides rather than widen them.

References

General ISIS Origins, History, and Ideology

1. Wilson Center. "Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State." October 28, 2019 (updated timelines through 2025). https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state
2. Al Jazeera. "The rise and fall of ISIL explained." June 20, 2017 (with ongoing updates). https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/6/20/the-rise-and-fall-of-isil-explained
3. Brookings Institution (Cole Bunzel). "The Islamic State's ideology is rooted in jihadi-salafism." March 11, 2015. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/report-unpacking-the-details-isis-ideology (cross-posted analysis)
4. Fawaz A. Gerges. ISIS: A History. Princeton University Press, 2016 (updated editions through 2020s).
5. Brookings Institution. "Al Qaeda vs. ISIS: Goals and Threats Compared." (Various dates, including 2015–2023 analyses). https://www.brookings.edu/articles/comparing-al-qaeda-and-isis-different-goals-different-targets
6. United States Institute of Peace (USIP). "The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond." December 2016/January 2017. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/The-Jihadi-Threat-ISIS-Al-Qaeda-and-Beyond.pdf
7. History.com. "ISIS - Leaders, Beheadings & Definition." July 10, 2017 (updated). https://www.history.com/articles/isis
8. George Washington University Program on Extremism. "ISIS in America: From Retweets to Raqqa." December 2015 (updated tracker through 2023). https://extremism.gwu.edu/isis-america

US Role, Policy Paradoxes, and Counter-ISIS Efforts

9. Vali Nasr (Johns Hopkins SAIS). Various interviews and analyses on US invasion and sectarian fallout (2016–2022).
10. Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The Islamic State Five Years Later: Persistent Threats, U.S. Options." March 21, 2024. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/islamic-state-five-years-later-persistent-threats-us-options
11. Congressional Research Service. "Islamic State: Background, Current Status and U.S. Policy." May 2024 (IF10328, updated). https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10328
12. International Crisis Group. Various reports on Iraq/Syria post-2003 (e.g., 2014–2025).
13. U.S. Department of Defense / CENTCOM. Operation Inherent Resolve quarterly reports (e.g., Q3 2025). https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/

Current Territories and Threat Assessments (2025–2026)

14. Counter Extremism Project. "ISIS Threat Report." Ongoing updates through 2026. https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/isis
15. UN Security Council Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team. Reports on ISIL/Da'esh (e.g., February 2025, July 2025). https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1267/monitoring-team/reports
16. ICCT (International Centre for Counter-Terrorism). "The Islamic State in 2025: an Evolving Threat Facing a Waning Global Response." July 11, 2025. https://icct.nl/publication/islamic-state-2025-evolving-threat-facing-waning-global-response
17. UK Parliament Commons Library. "Countering Islamic State/Daesh in Africa, Syria and Iraq 2025." March 18, 2025 (CBP-9613). https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9613/CBP-9613.pdf
18. U.S. Intelligence Community. "2025 Annual Threat Assessment." 2025. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf

ISIS in Specific Regions (Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Kurds, etc.)

19. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Frederic Wehrey). Analyses on Libya and ISIS (e.g., The Burning Shores, 2018; updates 2024–2025). https://carnegieendowment.org/
20. Chatham House (Lina Khatib). Reports on Lebanon, Hezbollah, and ISIS threats (2023–2025). https://www.chathamhouse.org/
21. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (Aaron Y. Zelin). "The Islamic State's Shadow Governance in Eastern Syria Since the Fall of Baghuz." September 19, 2023 (updated analyses). https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-islamic-states-shadow-governance-in-eastern-syria-since-the-fall-of-baghuz/
22. Aaron Y. Zelin (various CTC reports on anti-Kurdish ideology and HTS-ISIS dynamics, 2023–2025). https://ctc.westpoint.edu/
23. UK Parliament Commons Library. "Syria after Assad: Consequences and interim authorities 2025." July 23, 2025 (CBP-10161). https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10161/CBP-10161.pdf

Iran Isolation, Sanctions, and Regional Dynamics (2026)

24. International Crisis Group (Ali Vaez). "Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within." January 13, 2026. https://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-east-north-africa/iran-united-states/iran-crisis-time-change-within
25. International Crisis Group. "What Next for Iran?" January 16, 2026 (podcast/transcript). https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/iran/what-next-iran
26. Chatham House. "The shape-shifting 'axis of resistance'." March 6, 2025. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shape-shifting-axis-resistance
27. European Council. "Iran: Council adopts new sanctions over serious human rights violations and Iran's continued support to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine." January 29, 2026. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/hr/press/press-releases/2026/01/29/iran-council-adopts-new-sanctions-over-serious-human-rights-violations-and-iran-s-continued-support-to-russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine

Additional Think Tank and Media Sources

28. Soufan Center (Colin Clarke). Various analyses on ISIS resurgence (2025).
29. Reuters, BBC, New York Times, AFP. Field reports and anecdotes (2014–2026).
30. Global Terrorism Index / Institute for Economics & Peace. Annual reports (2025 edition).