The Shifting Landscape of Indian Entertainment: Theatrical Footfalls, OTT Growth, and the Future of Small-Budget Films (2015–2024)

 

Abstract

India’s entertainment industry has transformed dramatically from 2015 to 2024. Movie hall footfalls declined from 1.2 billion to 924.9 million, driven by rising ticket prices, single-screen theater closures, and competition from Over-The-Top (OTT) platforms. OTT viewership surged from 280 million users in 2018 to 547.3 million in 2024, fueled by affordable data and regional content.

The top 10 blockbusters now account for 42–46% of theatrical revenue, up from 35–40% in 2015, marginalizing small-budget films (under ₹15 crore), which increasingly find profitability on OTT with deals of ₹3–15 crore. This study analyzes these trends, evaluates OTT’s impact on theaters, compares revenue streams, and assesses small films’ strategic shift to OTT, projecting a 2030 outlook of coexistence driven by innovation and regional strategies. Insights from industry experts enrich the analysis, offering a nuanced view of this evolving landscape.

1. Introduction

India’s entertainment industry is navigating a seismic shift. The rise of OTT platforms, powered by over 900 million internet users and affordable data plans, has challenged the traditional theatrical ecosystem. Movie theaters face declining footfalls, escalating ticket prices, and competition from streaming services, a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic’s theater closures and direct-to-digital releases. Yet, blockbusters like Pushpa 2: The Rule (2024) underscore theaters’ enduring appeal for event-driven cinema.

“Streaming has democratized content consumption, but theaters remain the heartbeat of cinematic spectacle,” says filmmaker Shekhar Kapur, highlighting the potential for coexistence (Hindustan Times, 2023).

This study examines:

• Trends in movie hall footfalls (2015–2024) and their drivers.
• Growth of OTT viewership and its impact on theaters (2018–2024).
• The increasing revenue share of top blockbusters and its implications.
• The viability of small-budget films (under ₹15 crore) on OTT vs. theatrical releases.

Drawing on data from Ormax Media, Statista, Media Partners Asia, Box Office India, and expert insights, the analysis covers Hindi, Telugu, Tamil, and other regional cinemas. It critically evaluates trends, addresses data limitations, and projects a 2030 outlook, offering recommendations for producers, exhibitors, and platforms.

2. Movie Hall Footfalls (2015–2024)

Indian movie theater footfalls have declined significantly over the past decade, reflecting structural and behavioral shifts. In 2015, footfalls reached 1.2 billion, driven by blockbusters like Bajrangi Bhaijaan (35.4 million footfalls) and Baahubali: The Beginning (48 million). By 2018, they dipped to 1 billion (Sanju, 25 million), and in 2024, they stood at 924.9 million (Pushpa 2, 61.2 million).

Key Data Points:

• 2015: 1.2 billion footfalls, with Hindi cinema at 300 million. Baahubali marked the rise of pan-India films.
• 2018: 1 billion footfalls, with 2.0 (33.8 million) and Padmaavat leading.
• 2024: 924.9 million footfalls, with Pushpa 2 and Stree 2 (20 million) driving attendance.

Language Share (2024):

• Hindi: 30% (274.6 million footfalls).
• Telugu: 22% (~200 million).
• Tamil: 16% (~150 million).
• Others (Kannada, Malayalam, etc.): 32%, boosted by Kantara and Manjummel Boys.

Drivers of Decline:

• Rising Ticket Prices: Average ticket price (ATP) increased from ₹200 (2018) to ₹270–350 (2024), reducing affordability.
• Single-Screen Closures: From 10,000 in 2010 to ~6,700 by 2024, limiting rural access.
• OTT Competition: Shorter theatrical-to-OTT windows (4–8 weeks) and streaming convenience deter theater visits.
• Pandemic Impact: Footfalls plummeted to 400 million (2020) and 600 million (2021) due to closures.

“The closure of single-screens is a silent crisis for Indian cinema, cutting off the mass audience,” notes trade analyst Komal Nahta (Economic Times, 2024).

PVR Inox data shows footfalls at 50–60% of pre-COVID levels (2019: 1.2 billion), despite revenue growth from higher ATP and food-and-beverage (F&B) sales (30% of revenue). Regional cinemas, particularly Malayalam and Kannada, have bucked the trend, leveraging loyal audiences and lower ATPs (₹80–150).

“Malayalam cinema’s theatrical success shows content can triumph over market challenges,” says producer Mukesh Mehta of E4 Entertainment (The Hindu, 2024).

3. OTT Viewership Growth (2018–2024)

OTT platforms have revolutionized India’s entertainment landscape, growing from 280 million users in 2018 to 547.3 million in 2024 (38.4% penetration), with a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Paid subscriptions peaked at 119 million in 2022 but stabilized at 99.6 million in 2024, averaging 2.5 per user.

Key Milestones:

• 2018: 280 million users, 15 million subscribers, $0.8 billion revenue.
• 2019: 353.2 million users, 22.2 million subscribers, $2.01 billion.
• 2020: 395–400 million users, 29 million subscribers, $2.95 billion (lockdown surge).
• 2022: 423.8–658 million users, 119 million subscriptions, $3 billion.
• 2024: 547.3 million users, 99.6 million subscriptions, $4.06 billion.

Top Platforms (2024):

1. Disney+ Hotstar: 500 million users, 35% SVOD market share.
2. Amazon Prime Video: 200 million users, 22.3 million subscribers.
3. Netflix: 100 million users, 6.1–10 million subscribers.
4. JioCinema: 150 million users, free IPL streaming.
5. ZEE5: 80 million users, 3.7 million subscribers.
6. SonyLIV: 60 million users, 2.5 million subscribers.
7. MX Player: 50 million users, AVOD-driven.

Language Share: Hindi dominates (>50%), followed by Tamil and Telugu (15% each), and others (20%). Growth drivers include:

• Affordable Data: Reliance Jio’s 4G plans expanded internet access to 900 million users.
• Regional Content: 40% of Hotstar’s viewership from Tamil, Telugu, and Bengali.
• AVOD Surge: 21% user growth in 2024, led by JioCinema and MX Player.
• Smartphone Penetration: 97% of consumption via mobiles, 81% exclusively.

“OTT’s growth is a testament to India’s digital leap, but AVOD is the real game-changer for mass reach,” says Girish Johar, producer and trade expert (Business Standard, 2024).

Ormax Media and Statista highlight OTT’s rural expansion (65% of consumption from non-metro areas) and revenue growth (36% CAGR), outpacing theaters.

“The regional content boom on OTT has unlocked audiences that theaters couldn’t reach,” adds Sameer Nair, CEO of Applause Entertainment (Forbes India, 2023).

4. Impact of OTT on Theatrical Footfalls

The rise of OTT has significantly impacted theatrical footfalls, with 547.3 million OTT users surpassing 924.9 million theatergoers in 2024. Key mechanisms include:

• Shorter Release Windows: From 8–12 weeks (pre-2020) to 4–8 weeks, encouraging audiences to wait for streaming.
• Price Disparity: OTT subscriptions (₹149–₹499) are cheaper than multiplex tickets (₹270–₹350).
• Direct-to-Digital Releases: Films like Laxmii (2020) bypassed theaters, setting a precedent.
• Content Accessibility: OTT’s regional and global reach contrasts with theaters’ urban bias.

“OTT has shifted the power to the viewer, who now decides when and where to watch,” observes trade analyst Taran Adarsh (Times of India, 2024). PVR Inox’s 20% revenue growth (FY20–FY24) vs. declining footfalls underscores pricing’s role, with F&B boosting margins. However, blockbusters (Pushpa 2, 61.2 million footfalls) retain theatrical appeal.

Shekhar Kapur emphasizes, “Theaters offer an experience OTT can’t replicate—a shared emotional journey” (Hindustan Times, 2023). Single-screen closures (~6,700 by 2024) and inconsistent film quality also contribute, suggesting OTT is not the sole driver.

“The decline in footfalls isn’t just OTT’s fault; poor content and high ticket prices are equally to blame,” argues exhibitor Vishek Chauhan (The Indian Express, 2024).

5. Blockbuster Dominance in Theatrical Revenue

The top 10 blockbusters have increased their share of theatrical revenue, reflecting a polarized market. Data from Box Office India and Hindustan Times shows:

• 2015: ~₹3,500–₹4,000 crore of ₹10,000 crore (35–40%). Leaders: Bajrangi Bhaijaan (₹915 crore), Baahubali (₹650 crore).
• 2018: ~₹3,800–₹4,200 crore of ₹9,600 crore (40–44%). Leaders: Sanju (₹586 crore), 2.0 (₹655 crore).
• 2020: ~₹1,500–₹1,800 crore of ₹3,000 crore (50–60%), due to limited releases.
• 2023: ~₹4,750 crore of ₹12,000 crore (38–40%). Leaders: Jawan (₹1,148 crore), Pathaan (₹1,050 crore).
• 2024: ~₹5,000–₹5,500 crore of ₹11,833 crore (42–46%). Leaders: Pushpa 2 (₹1,403 crore), Kalki 2898 AD (₹985 crore).

Drivers:

• Pan-India Films: Telugu and Tamil blockbusters (Baahubali 2, RRR) expanded reach.
• Higher ATP: From ₹200 to ₹350, boosting revenue despite lower footfalls.
• Fewer Releases: ~200 films in 2024 vs. 400 in 2019, concentrating revenue.

“Blockbusters are the lifeblood of theaters now; the market is unforgiving for anything less,” says trade analyst Atul Mohan (Filmfare, 2024). This trend marginalizes small-budget films, which struggle for screens and marketing, pushing them toward OTT platforms.

“The pan-India phenomenon has redefined theatrical success, but it’s a high-stakes game,” notes producer Guneet Monga (Variety, 2024).

6. Small-Budget Films: OTT vs. Theatrical Viability

Small-budget films (under ₹15 crore) face significant theatrical challenges, making OTT a compelling alternative. Theatrical Risks:

• High Costs: P&A costs (₹3–10 crore) and distributor shares (30–50%) erode margins.
• Limited Screens: Multiplexes prioritize blockbusters, and single-screens are scarce (~6,700).
• Audience Behavior: Non-spectacle films are skipped, with audiences waiting for OTT releases.

OTT Advantages:

• Guaranteed Revenue: Deals range from ₹3–15 crore, covering budgets under ₹10 crore.
• Wider Reach: 547.3 million users vs. 924.9 million footfalls, with global and rural access.
• Lower Costs: Platforms handle marketing, minimizing expenses.

OTT Deal Structures (2024):

• Outright Purchase: ₹5–10 crore for ₹10 crore films (e.g., indie dramas).
• Licensing: ₹3–10 crore for 3–5 years (e.g., regional rom-coms).
• Revenue Sharing: Rare, used by AVOD platforms like JioCinema.
• Minimum Guarantee: ₹2–5 crore plus profit split for moderate buzz.

Case Studies:

• Premalu (₹3 crore budget, ₹136 crore gross): Theatrical success (20x ROI) plus ₹5–10 crore OTT deal.
• Kahaani (₹8 crore, ₹104 crore gross): Theatrical hit, high OTT value post-release.
• Peepli Live (₹5 crore, ₹46 crore): OTT ideal for similar budgets today.

“OTT is a lifeline for small films, offering financial security theaters can’t guarantee,” says producer Siddharth Roy Kapur (Business Today, 2024).

Profitability Analysis:

• Under ₹5 crore: OTT is ideal (50–100% ROI). A ₹3 crore film with a ₹5 crore deal yields 67% ROI vs. theatrical risks.
• ₹5–10 crore: OTT or hybrid. A ₹10 crore film needs ₹30 crore gross to break even theatrically, vs. ₹8 crore OTT deal (0–20% ROI).
• ₹10–15 crore: Theatrical viable for breakout hits (Badhaai Ho, ₹29 crore, ₹221 crore); otherwise, OTT safer.

“Regional markets like Malayalam show small films can still win theatrically if the story resonates,” observes director Anurag Kashyap (The Hindu, 2024). Declining OTT deal values (₹10–20 crore in 2020 to ₹3–10 crore in 2024) reflect platform profitability pressures, requiring producers to optimize budgets.

7. Revenue Comparison: Theaters vs. OTT (2018–2024)

Theatrical Revenue:

• 2018: ₹9,600 crore ($1.3B).
• 2019: ₹11,000 crore ($1.5B).
• 2020: ₹3,000 crore ($0.4B).
• 2021: ₹4,500 crore ($0.6B).
• 2022: ₹9,000 crore ($1.1B).
• 2023: ₹12,000 crore ($1.45B).
• 2024: ₹12,226 crore ($1.47B).
• Total: ₹61,326 crore ($8.37B).

Driven by ATP growth and F&B (30% of revenue), but footfalls fell 7.5% (1B to 924.9M).

OTT Revenue:

• 2018: ₹2,590 crore ($0.8B).
• 2019: ₹14,910 crore ($2.01B).
• 2020: ₹22,620 crore ($2.95B).
• 2021: ₹24,909 crore ($2.92B).
• 2022: ₹25,300 crore ($3B).
• 2023: ₹29,050 crore ($3.5B).
• 2024: ₹33,820 crore ($4.06B).
• Total: ₹153,199 crore ($19.24B).

A 36% CAGR reflects user growth (280M to 547.3M) and AVOD monetization. “OTT’s revenue trajectory shows it’s not just a trend but the future of entertainment,” says Karan Taurani, analyst at Elara Capital (Economic Times, 2024). OTT’s scale outpaces theaters, capturing 7–9% of the entertainment market by 2022 (Statista).

8. Future Outlook (2030)

If trends persist, the Indian entertainment industry will see coexistence by 2030:

• OTT: 750–800 million users (50–55% penetration), $11–13 billion revenue (₹91,000–₹1,08,000 crore). AVOD will drive rural growth, with 150–200 million subscriptions (ARPU: $10–12). Platforms will invest in regional content (60% of budgets) and AI personalization, but face regulatory risks (e.g., Broadcasting Service Regulation Bill 2023).
• Theaters: 800–900 million footfalls, ₹15,000–₹18,000 crore revenue. Blockbusters and premium formats (IMAX, 4DX) will dominate, with ATP at ₹350–₹450. Single-screens may drop to ~5,000, but multiplexes will expand via capital-light models.
• Small Films: Budgets under ₹10 crore will go to OTT, securing ₹5–15 crore deals. Regional hits (Malayalam, Kannada) will retain theatrical viability.

“By 2030, theaters will be about experiences, not just movies—think concerts, live events,” predicts Ajay Bijli, MD of PVR Inox (Forbes India, 2024). Coexistence is likely, with theaters focusing on event films and OTT dominating daily consumption. Risks include rising ticket prices and OTT’s content cost pressures ($4.2B by 2027). Consolidation (e.g., JioCinema–Hotstar merger) and 5G adoption will shape the landscape.

9. Summary of Findings

• Footfall Decline: Theatrical footfalls fell 23% (1.2B to 924.9M, 2015–2024) due to rising ATP, single-screen closures, and OTT competition. Hindi (30%), Telugu (22%), and Tamil (16%) lead.
• OTT Surge: Viewership grew 95% (280M to 547.3M, 2018–2024), with a 14% CAGR. Disney+ Hotstar (500M users) and AVOD platforms drive growth, with Hindi at >50%.
• Blockbuster Dominance: Top 10 films’ revenue share rose from 35–40% (2015) to 42–46% (2024), marginalizing small films.
• Small Films on OTT: Budgets under ₹8 crore are more profitable on OTT (50–100% ROI, ₹3–15 crore deals) vs. theatrical risks (10–15% success). ₹8–15 crore films may pursue hybrid strategies, especially in regional markets.
• Revenue: Theaters generated $8.37B and OTT $19.24B (2018–2024), with OTT’s scale outpacing theaters.
• 2030 Outlook: OTT will reach 750–800M users ($11–13B), theaters 800–900M footfalls (₹15,000–₹18,000 crore). Coexistence requires innovation.

Recommendations:

• Producers: Target OTT for <₹8 crore budgets; test theatrical for ₹8–15 crore with strong content.
• Exhibitors: Offer budget screens and premium experiences.
• Platforms: Invest in regional AVOD and optimize small-film deals.

10. Conclusion

India’s entertainment industry is evolving toward a dual ecosystem where OTT dominates scale and theaters retain niche appeal. The decline in footfalls and rise of blockbusters highlight theaters’ reliance on event films, while OTT’s growth offers small-budget filmmakers a safer path. By 2030, coexistence is likely, but theaters must address affordability, and OTT platforms must navigate regulatory and cost challenges. Innovation—budget screens, regional theatrical focus, and OTT personalization—will ensure accessibility and profitability in a polarized market.

11. References

• Ormax Media (2024). India Entertainment Report.
• Statista (2024). OTT Market in India.
• Media Partners Asia (2023). India OTT Insights.
• Hindustan Times (2023). “Shekhar Kapur on OTT vs. Theaters.”
• Economic Times (2024). “Single-Screen Crisis: Komal Nahta.”
• The Hindu (2024). “Malayalam Cinema’s Resilience: Mukesh Mehta.”
• Business Standard (2024). “OTT’s AVOD Surge: Girish Johar.”
• Forbes India (2023). “Regional Content Boom: Sameer Nair.”
• Times of India (2024). “Viewer Power: Taran Adarsh.”
• The Indian Express (2024). “Footfall Decline: Vishek Chauhan.”
• Filmfare (2024). “Blockbuster Era: Atul Mohan.”
• Variety (2024). “Pan-India Films: Guneet Monga.”
• Business Today (2024). “OTT for Small Films: Siddharth Roy Kapur.”
• Forbes India (2024). “Theater’s Future: Ajay Bijli.”
• Box Office India (2015–2024). Annual Box Office Reports.
• Wikipedia & IMDb (2024). Film gross collections (cross-referenced).
• Notes: Data gaps exist for OTT deal values and small film grosses; figures are estimates based on cross-referenced sources. Exchange rate: ₹83/USD (2024 average).