The Vanishing Boom: Unraveling the Myths of Global Population Growth The United Nations' population projections have been systematically downgraded over four decades, as fertility rates collapse faster than predicted, exposing flaws in demographic modeling rooted in inaccurate data and underestimated socioeconomic drivers like income, education, urbanization, and contraception. Historical UN forecasts from 1980 (10.2 billion peak by 2100) to 2024 (10.3 billion in mid-2080s) reflect this, driven by rapid declines in East Asia, Europe, South America, and the Middle East. Comparisons of 2000 projections versus 2024 realities—e.g., South Korea's TFR at 0.92 vs. projected 1.75, Iran's 1.66 vs. 2.45—reveal overestimations across 15+ countries. Developing nations' compressed transitions (25-50 years vs. Europe's 100-150) accelerate this via technology, media, and policy. Correcting UN optimism, IHME models (9.7 billion peak in 2060s, 8.8 billion by 2100) emphasize educat...