What If Shah Jahan Built Canals Instead of the Taj Mahal?

What If Shah Jahan Built Canals Instead of the Taj Mahal?

 

Imagine a world where the ₹32 million spent on the Taj Mahal—roughly $1 billion in today’s money—was diverted to irrigation canals and village schools. In just 20–30 years, this could have transformed the lives of 12 to 16 million people across Mughal India. That’s 10–15% of the empire’s population—a public works revolution that would have fed families, prevented famines, and seeded literacy for generations.

 

The Cost of Eternal Love

Shah Jahan spent ₹32 million rupees (1632–1653) to build the Taj Mahal, a mausoleum for his wife Mumtaz Mahal. Adjusted for long-term purchasing power, this equals ~$1 billion in 2025 USD (basis: Mughal silver rupee parity + 400-year inflation via global commodity baskets; see Habib, 1999; Moosvi, 2015).

For context: this was 25–30% of the empire’s annual land revenue (~₹100–120 million). A massive one-time capital surge.

Estimating the NPV of the Taj Mahal as an Investment To tackle this, we'll compute the Net Present Value (NPV) of the Taj Mahal project at the time of its construction (around 1632, under Emperor Shah Jahan). This treats it as an "investment" with an upfront cost and future cash flows (primarily from modern tourism, as per your query focusing on the last 100 years). NPV is calculated as: NPV = -Initial Cost + Present Value of Future Cash Flows All values are in constant (today's) U.S. dollars for simplicity, using a real discount rate of 4% (a conservative long-term estimate accounting for inflation and opportunity cost, based on historical global real returns on capital). This avoids nominal currency messiness over 400 years. We'll make broad, reasonable estimates based on historical data—nothing precise, as records are spotty, especially pre-1950. Step 1: Estimate Initial Cost (1632) Historical records peg the construction at ~32 million rupees (silver-based Mughal currency). Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power over 400 years (using economic historians' equivalents), this equates to roughly $1 billion in today's constant dollars. Sources: Multiple estimates range from $470 million to $1 billion (e.g., Quora analyses, Housing.com, and UNESCO-aligned reports). We'll use $1 billion as a round, upper-bound figure for conservatism. Step 2: Estimate Cash Flows (1925–2025) The Taj Mahal generated minimal revenue for its first ~300 years (it was a private mausoleum, then a guarded site under British rule with negligible fees). Tourism boomed post-1947 independence. We'll focus on ticket revenue (main direct cash flow; indirect economic multipliers like hotels/jobs are excluded for simplicity). Visitor trends (rough averages from ASI data, Statista, and reports): 1925–1950: ~0.1 million visitors/year (colonial-era elites; low volume). 1950–2000: ~1 million/year (post-independence growth, but pre-mass tourism). 2000–2025: ~5 million/year (peak now at 6–8 million; COVID dips averaged out). Entry fees (historical adjustments): Early: <$0.10 avg. (e.g., 1966 fees ~0.05 USD equivalent for Indians). Mid-period: ~$1 avg. Recent: ~$5 avg. (₹50–250 for Indians, $13 for foreigners; ~80% domestic). Annual revenue estimates (visitors × avg. fee): 1925–1950: ~$10,000/year. 1950–2000: ~$1 million/year. 2000–2025: ~$25 million/year. Total over 100 years: ~$675 million (25 years × $0.01M + 50 years × $1M + 25 years × $25M). Average annual: $6.75 million (in constant dollars). Recent validation: ASI data shows ~$6–11 million/year nominal recently (e.g., ₹50–60 crore), aligning after inflation adjustment. Pre-1950 is a lowball guess—actual may be even lower. Step 3: Discount Cash Flows to 1632 Cash flows start ~293 years after construction (1925 ≈ 1632 + 293). Treat as a 100-year annuity of $6.75 million/year starting in year 293. PV of annuity at its start (year 293): , where , , . Annuity factor ≈ 27.0 (near-perpetual at 1/r = 25, but finite term boosts it slightly). PV at year 293 ≈ $6.75M × 27.0 = $182.25 million. Discount back to year 0: . (computed via exponential approximation: ). PV at 1632 ≈ $182.25M / 97,000 ≈ $1,879 (negligible!). Step 4: Compute NPV NPV = -$1 billion + $1,879 ≈ -$999,998,121. In code for precision (Python REPL): Rounded broadly: -$1 billion. Interpretation It's massively negative. The upfront cost was enormous for the era, but meaningful cash flows only kicked in centuries later. At 4% real discounting, those distant revenues are worth peanuts in 1632 terms (like investing in a bond that pays out after your great-great-grandkids are dust). Even if we assume earlier cash flows (unlikely) or a 0% rate (no opportunity cost), total undiscounted flows (~$675M) still fall short of $1B. If tourism had started immediately, it might break even—but as a love monument, not a cash machine, it wasn't designed for ROI. This is a fun thought experiment highlighting how time erodes value. If we tweak assumptions (e.g., lower rate, higher flows), it stays negative unless cash flows span the full 400 years at modern levels (unrealistic).

 

Option 1: Irrigation — Feeding Millions

Historical Benchmark

• Firoz Shah Tughlaq (1351–1388): Built 200+ canals → irrigated 1 million acres → supported 2–3 million people (direct + indirect).
• Cost per acre: ₹10–20 (Mughal canal accounts, Ain-i-Akbari).

With ₹32 Million:

• Acres irrigated: ₹32M ÷ ₹15/acre = ~2.1 million acres
• Grain boost: ~1.5 million tons/year (0.7–1 ton/acre yield gain)
• Direct beneficiaries: ~400,000 farming families × 6 = 2.4 million
• Indirect (labor, trade, famine avoidance): 2–3× multiplier → 7–10 million

Total over 25 years: ~10–15 million person-years of improved nutrition and income.

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Option 2: Education — Lighting Minds

Historical Scale

• A large madrasa cost ₹50,000–₹100,000 to build + endow (Ain-i-Akbari, Abul Fazl).
• Capacity: 100–300 students.
• Annual cost: ₹5,000–10,000.

With ₹32 Million:

• 300 fully endowed madrasas → ₹30M (build + 20-year fund)
• Students at peak: 300 × 200 = 60,000
• Over 25 years (5-year cycles): 300,000 educated
• Ripple effect (each teaches 2–3 others): ~1 million gain basic literacy

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Combined Impact (1632–1662)

Sector	Direct Reach	Indirect Reach	Total (20–30 yrs)
Irrigation	2.4M	7–10M	10–15 million
Education	0.3M	0.7M	~1 million
Combined			12–16 million

 

Option A — Irrigation Systems (Canals, Tanks, Wells) Historical Precedents: Firoz Shah Tughlaq (1351–1388) built 200+ canals, irrigating ~1 million acres, supporting ~2–3 million people (direct + indirect). Shah Jahan’s own Yamuna canal (refurbished later) irrigated ~200,000 acres. Cost per acre irrigated (Mughal era): ~₹10–20 (based on canal accounts). With ₹32 million: Acres irrigated: ₹32M ÷ ₹15/acre = ~2.1 million acres Crop yield increase: ~50–100% (from rain-fed to irrigated). Grain output increase: ~1.5 million tons/year (at 0.7–1 ton/acre). Beneficiaries: Direct farmers: ~400,000 families × 6 = ~2.4 million people. Indirect (labor, trade, food security): 2–3× multiplier → 5–7 million. Over 20–30 years: Cumulative benefit (avoided famines, population growth) → 10–15 million person-years. Total: ~10–15 million people meaningfully benefited (better food, income, survival). Option B — Education (Madrasas, Maktabs, Scholarships) Historical Scale: A large madrasa (e.g., Fatehpur Sikri) cost ~₹50,000–₹100,000 to build + endow. Annual running cost: ~₹5,000–10,000. Students per madrasa: 100–300. With ₹32 million: Build & endow 300 large madrasas: ₹100,000 × 300 = ₹30M (construction + 20-year endowment). Total students: 300 × 200 = 60,000 at a time. Over 25 years (avg. 5-year education cycle): 60,000 × 5 = 300,000 educated individuals. Ripple Effect: Each literate person teaches 2–3 others → ~1 million gain basic literacy. Clerks, accountants, judges, poets → boosts admin efficiency, trade, culture. Total: ~1 million people gain literacy/education (direct + indirect). Combined Impact (Irrigation + Education) Sector Direct Reach Indirect Reach Total (20–30 yrs) Irrigation 2.4M 7–10M 10–15 million Education 0.3M 0.7M ~1 million Combined ~12–16 million   ~12 to 16 million people would have potentially benefited in the 20–30 years after 1632 — mostly through irrigation-driven food security and famine prevention, with ~1 million gaining literacy. That’s ~10–15% of the empire’s population — a transformative public investment.

 

Taj Mahal’s Real ROI in the First 30 Years

• Workers employed: ~20,000 over 20 years → ~400,000 person-years
• Deaths: ~70 documented
• Visitors (1632–1662): Near zero (private mausoleum)
• Beneficiaries in first generation: <10,000

Irrigation + education = 1,000–3,000× more lives touched than the Taj in its first 30 years.

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Conclusion

Shah Jahan’s ₹32 million could have irrigated 2.1 million acres and educated 300,000—benefiting 12 to 16 million people in just 25 years. Instead, it built a tomb that fed no one for centuries. The Taj Mahal is a masterpiece of love and symmetry; but as public policy, it was a catastrophic misallocation. Monuments inspire. Infrastructure sustains. In 1632, the empire needed bread, water, and books—not marble. History remembers the mausoleum. But millions of forgotten farmers and students paid the price. True legacy is measured not in stone, but in lives lifted.

Redirecting the ₹32 million to irrigation + education would have benefited 1,000–3,000× more people in the first generation than the Taj Mahal did.

A monument for one love story → vs. life-changing infrastructure for millions.

 

References

1. Habib, I. (1999). The Agrarian System of Mughal India. Oxford University Press.
2. Moosvi, S. (2015). The Economy of the Mughal Empire c. 1595. Oxford University Press.
3. Abul Fazl (1590s). Ain-i-Akbari (trans. Blochmann & Jarrett).
4. ASI Annual Reports (1950–2025). Archaeological Survey of India.
5. Eaton, R. M. (2019). India in the Persianate Age. Penguin.