India’s Invisible Rails: The Enduring Path Dependence of Empire

India’s Invisible Rails: The Enduring Path Dependence of Empire

 

British rule did not merely govern India for 190 years—it rewired its economic, political, and institutional DNA through a cascade of self-reinforcing choices. From QWERTY-like lock-ins in railway gauges to Westminster scaffolding in Parliament, colonial decisions created increasing returns that amplified small historical accidents into century-long trajectories. Paul David’s 1985 insight that “history matters” finds vivid proof: India’s 54,000 km broad-gauge network, English-medium IITs, and IAS bureaucracy are all third-degree path-dependent artifacts. Post-1947, Nehru’s socialism and 1991 liberalization operated within these rails, not outside them. The result? A services superpower ($250 bn IT exports) riding colonial English, but a manufacturing dwarf (14 % GDP) trapped by extractive ports and fragmented farms. Politically, FPTP coalitions and judicial PILs thrive on British foundations, delivering stability no peer nation matches—yet bureaucratic inertia and Article 356 centralization persist. As of November 2025, India’s $4.5 tn economy reflects a +5.4/10 balance scorecard: colonial unity and democracy are tailwinds; missing factories and rigid institutions are headwinds. The empire is dead; its path lives.

 

Picture a sweltering June day in 1757. On the mango groves of Plassey, Robert Clive’s 3,000 men face Siraj-ud-Daula’s 50,000. A sudden monsoon betrays the Nawab—his French cannons sink in mud, Mir Jafar defects, and a single red ball drops into the urn of history. “One battle decided the fate of a subcontinent,” Clive boasted to Parliament. That accident birthed path dependence—where, as W. Brian Arthur put it in 1989, “small events and initial conditions can lead to large and unpredictable consequences.” India became the grandest laboratory.

I. The Theory: History as Economic Destiny

Path dependence begins where neoclassical perfection ends. “Under increasing returns,” Arthur explained in Economic Journal (1994), “inferior technologies can lock in if they gain an early lead through learning, scale, network effects, or adaptive expectations.” Paul David’s QWERTY keyboard (1985) became the metaphor: imagine Christopher Sholes in 1873, frantically rearranging keys to stop typewriter jams. The layout slowed typists—but once millions learned it, Dvorak’s faster design (1936) was doomed. “Switching costs trump efficiency,” David wrote.

Now zoom to Bombay, 1853. Lord Dalhousie, perspiring in a pith helmet, watches the first locomotive chug to Thane. Engineers chose 5’6” broad gauge because a test run in the monsoon proved it wouldn’t derail on soggy ballast. “Stability over standardization,” the report read. By 1947, 54,000 km of track—world’s fourth largest—were locked in. In 2023, a NITI Aayog study calculated conversion to standard gauge (1,435 mm) at ₹50 lakh crore. “Physical capital is the most stubborn path-dependent asset,” notes economic historian Tirthankar Roy (2020). The gauge is India’s QWERTY—every freight train still rumbles on Dalhousie’s whim.

Path Dependence in Economic Theory: An Explanation 1. Core Definition Path dependence refers to the idea that history matters in economic outcomes. The sequence of past events, decisions, or technologies can "lock in" a particular trajectory, making it difficult or costly to switch to alternatives—even if those alternatives are objectively superior in the long run. In simple terms: Where you end up depends not just on where you want to go, but on the path you took to get there. This challenges the neoclassical economic assumption of efficient markets and unique equilibria, where the best technology or institution always wins regardless of initial conditions. 2. Origins of the Concept Paul David (1985) – The QWERTY Keyboard The most famous example is the QWERTY layout. Historical context: Invented in 1873 to prevent typewriter jams by slowing down typists. Technical superiority? No. The Dvorak layout (1936) allows 2–3x faster typing with less finger strain. Why QWERTY persists: Switching costs: Retraining millions of typists. Network effects: Compatibility with existing machines, software, and training systems. Coordination problem: No single actor can unilaterally switch. David's conclusion: QWERTY is a suboptimal lock-in due to historical accidents. Brian Arthur (1989, 1994) – Increasing Returns and Positive Feedback W. Brian Arthur formalized path dependence in technology adoption under increasing returns. Key Insight: Under constant or diminishing returns (neoclassical world): → Small advantages fade; best technology dominates. Under increasing returns (real-world tech markets): → Small early advantages amplify over time → winner-takes-most. Four Sources of Increasing Returns (Arthur, 1994): Source Explanation Example Learning by doing Performance improves with cumulative production Aircraft (Boeing vs. Airbus) Network externalities Value increases with number of users Fax machines, social media Scale economies Unit costs fall with volume Semiconductors Adaptive expectations Belief in a standard encourages investment VHS vs. Betamax 3. Formal Mechanism: Polya Urn Model (Arthur) Imagine an urn with balls of two colors (A and B). Start with one of each. Each step: Draw a ball at random, put it back, and add another of the same color. → Over time, one color dominates—but which one is random. This models small historical events leading to large, unpredictable outcomes. Mathematical implication: Multiple equilibria exist. The system is non-ergodic—history cannot be averaged away. 4. Types of Path Dependence (David, 2001) Type Description Reversibility Example First-degree Past affects future possibilities, but no lock-in Easily reversible Choosing a restaurant Second-degree Early choices made under uncertainty; later info shows error Costly but possible Early urban planning Third-degree Full lock-in; switching too costly even if better option known Nearly irreversible QWERTY, nuclear vs. renewables 5. Implications for Economic Theory Traditional Neoclassical View Path Dependence View Unique, efficient equilibrium Multiple equilibria History is irrelevant History is decisive Best technology wins Inferior technology can dominate Markets are ergodic Markets are non-ergodic 6. Real-World Examples 1. VHS vs. Betamax (Video Formats) Betamax had better picture quality. VHS won due to: Longer recording time (critical early advantage) Sony's restrictive licensing vs. JVC's open policy Rental stores stocked more VHS → network effect Outcome: VHS captured 90%+ market share by 1985. 2. Light Water vs. Gas-Cooled Nuclear Reactors (US) Early US Navy chose light water reactors (LWR) for submarines. This created: Trained engineers Supply chains Regulatory familiarity Lock-in: Even though gas-cooled reactors were safer and more efficient for civilian use, LWR dominated. 3. Rail Gauge in India British colonial standard: 1,676 mm (broad gauge). Post-independence, converting to standard gauge (1,435 mm) would cost trillions. Result: India stuck with broad gauge despite global standardization. 7. Institutional Path Dependence Douglass North (1990) – Institutions and Transaction Costs Institutions (laws, norms, property rights) also exhibit path dependence. Example: Common law (UK, US) vs. Civil law (France, Germany) Early adoption → different legal evolution Switching entire legal systems = astronomical cost North's thesis: Institutions reduce transaction costs, but inefficient institutions persist if change disrupts vested interests. 8. Critiques of Path Dependence Critique Counterargument "It's just increasing returns" Path dependence emphasizes historical contingency, not just scale Markets eventually correct Not if switching costs > benefits (QWERTY still dominates) Overused explanation True—must distinguish true lock-in from temporary dominance Predictability Arthur: We can predict lock-in will occur, but not which technology wins 9. Policy Implications Early intervention matters: Government can tip markets (e.g., subsidies for electric vehicles). Example: Norway’s EV policy → Tesla dominance. Standard-setting bodies: IEEE, ISO prevent chaotic lock-in. Antitrust and interoperability: Break network monopolies (e.g., EU vs. Microsoft). Avoiding "technology traps": Carbon lock-in (fossil fuel infrastructure) vs. renewable transition. 10. Mathematical Illustration (Simplified) Consider two technologies, A and B. Adoption follows: Where: : Market shares : Strength of increasing returns : Small historical shock Even if is inferior, a positive can lead to . Summary: Key Takeaways Concept Insight Path dependence Economic outcomes depend on historical sequence Increasing returns Small advantages → large dominance Lock-in Inferior standards can persist Multiple equilibria No unique "best" outcome Policy relevance Early choices shape long-term trajectories Path dependence doesn’t mean markets fail—it means markets remember. The invisible hand is guided by visible history. "The future is not determined by the past, but it is constrained by it." – Adapted from Paul David

 

II. Economic Lock-Ins: From Drain to Digital

A. The Extractive Skeleton

On a foggy Calcutta morning in 1850, Dwarkanath Tagore—India’s first industrialist—watches his steamship load jute for Dundee. “We grow the fiber; they weave the sack,” he laments. British India was a raw material appendage. Cotton flowed from Deccan to Lancashire; tea from Assam to London. Railways radiated from ports—Bombay, Calcutta, Madras—not factories. “The colonial state invested in infrastructure only where it reduced the cost of exports,” writes Amiya Bagchi in Colonialism and Indian Economy (2010). By 1947, manufacturing was 10 % of GDP versus 25 % in 1900—de-industrialization in reverse gear.

Flash forward to 1957. Prime Minister Nehru, standing atop Bhakra Dam, declares, “These temples of modern India will wash away colonial poverty.” Yet no capital goods base meant importing Soviet turbines, paid via dwindling sterling reserves. Balance-of-payments crises (1957, 1966, 1991) followed like monsoon floods. “Colonial trade networks had network externalities too strong to break overnight,” observes Arvind Subramanian (2019). In 1991, Finance Minister Manmohan Singh pawned 67 tons of gold to avoid default—the drain in reverse.

B. The English Edge

Cut to a dusty classroom in Allahabad, 1888. A young Motilal Nehru recites Shakespeare under a banyan tree. Thomas Macaulay’s 1835 Minute had vowed to create “a class of persons Indian in blood and colour, but English in tastes.” It birthed three universities by 1900 and an elite fluent in global discourse. Fast-forward to 2000: a 22-year-old Narayana Murthy in a Bangalore garage types the first lines of Infosys code. Today, India’s IT-BPM exports cross $250 billion (NASSCOM 2025), powering 45 % of global outsourcing. “English is the single largest colonial gift to India’s GDP,” declares Nandan Nilekani. The diaspora—18 million strong—remits $125 billion annually (World Bank 2024). In Silicon Valley, Sundar Pichai’s accent still carries echoes of Macaulay.

C. Land and Labor Traps

In a Bihar village, 1962, a landlord’s goons burn land records to thwart zamindari abolition. British revenue systems—permanent settlement in Bengal, ryotwari in Madras—had created absentee landlords. Abolition dragged through colonial courts until the 1960s. Average farm size fell to 1.08 hectares (Agriculture Census 2021). “Fragmented holdings prevent mechanization and industrial land assembly,” laments Ashok Gulati. The Freight Equalization Policy (1952–1991) subsidized coal transport from Bihar to Gujarat, distorting industrial location. In 2025, a Foxconn factory in Tamil Nadu still negotiates with 37 farmers for 50 acres—a single colonial survey map from 1880 holds the key.

Path Dependence in British Colonial Rule and India’s Post-Independence Economic Trajectory 1. Core Framing: Colonialism as a Massive Historical Shock British rule (1757–1947) was not a neutral “episode” but a third-degree path-dependent lock-in (David, 2001). It created: Institutional infrastructure Physical capital stock Human capital formation Global trade networks Power structures …all aligned with extractive imperial goals, not Indian development. Independence in 1947 inherited this fixed capital—switching costs were astronomical. Key insight: India’s economic path post-1947 was constrained by the colonial path, even as leaders tried to deviate. 2. Mechanisms of Colonial Path Dependence (Increasing Returns + Lock-In) Mechanism (Arthur, 1994) Colonial Application Post-Independence Lock-In Learning by doing British trained Indian civil servants (ICS), engineers, and lawyers in British systems (English law, railway engineering, colonial accounting). Independent India retained ICS → IAS, British-style universities, and English-medium technical education. Network externalities India integrated into British Empire trade network (cotton → UK mills; tea → London). Indian ports, railways, telegraph built for export nodes. Post-1947, India’s trade remained sterling-area tied until 1970s. Bombay/Delhi as financial hubs inherited from British. Scale economies Massive railway grid (54,000 km by 1947) built on 5’6” broad gauge + meter gauge patchwork. Converting to standard gauge = ₹50+ lakh crore. India still uses colonial gauges. Adaptive expectations Elites educated in British public schools (e.g., Doon, Mayo) expected Westminster-style democracy and English common law. Constitution of India (1950) = longest written constitution, heavily borrowed from Government of India Act 1935. 3. Three Layers of Lock-In Layer 1: Physical Infrastructure Lock-In Colonial Decision Path-Dependent Outcome Railways built for raw material extraction (cotton from Deccan to Bombay; coal from Bihar to Calcutta). Post-1947: Freight tariffs subsidized passenger travel (political necessity) → Indian Railways chronically underinvested in capacity until 2000s. Irrigation: Perennial canals in Punjab (British for wheat/revenue). Neglected East India (rainfed). Green Revolution (1960s) possible only in Punjab/Haryana → regional inequality locked in. Ports: Bombay, Calcutta, Madras built for export. No deep-water ports on East coast. India’s trade imbalance with China post-1991 exacerbated by inadequate East coast port capacity. Switching cost example: Building a new railway grid from scratch = 10–15% of GDP annually for decades. Impossible. Layer 2: Institutional Lock-In Colonial Institution Inherited in 1947 Path-Dependent Effect Land revenue systems (Zamindari in Bengal, Ryotwari in Madras) Retained until 1950s–60s Zamindari abolition delayed → fragmented landholdings → low agricultural productivity. Indian Civil Service (ICS) Became IAS Generalist bureaucracy resistant to specialization → slow industrial policy execution. English common law + Indian Penal Code (1860) Core of legal system Contract enforcement weak → high transaction costs in business (India ranks low on World Bank “Enforcing Contracts” even in 2025). Reserve Bank of India (1935) Monetary policy tied to sterling until 1947 Rupee overvalued 1947–1991 to import capital goods → balance of payments crises (1957, 1966, 1991). Layer 3: Human Capital & Expectations Lock-In Education: British invested in elite English education (3 universities by 1900) for clerical jobs. Mass education neglected (literacy 12% in 1947). Outcome: Post-1947, India had world-class IITs/IIMs (English-medium, export-oriented talent) but 80% illiterate rural population. Lock-in: Brain drain + IT services boom (1990s) = tertiary sector leapfrogging manufacturing. Elite consensus: Nehru, Ambedkar, Patel — all British-trained lawyers. They chose: Parliamentary democracy (not presidential) Planned economy (inspired by USSR, but implemented via British-style planning commission) Public sector dominance (inheriting British “commanding heights” logic) 4. The Great Deviation Attempt: 1947–1991 (Nehruvian Socialism) India’s leaders recognized path dependence and tried to break it: Goal Policy Path Dependence Constraint Outcome Break colonial trade pattern Import-substituting industrialization (ISI) No domestic capital goods industry → relied on imported machinery paid via sterling reserves BoP crisis every decade Reduce regional inequality Freight equalization policy (1950s) Subsidized coal/steel transport from East to West/South Distorted industrial location → inefficiency Land reform Zamindari abolition Legal delays in British-style courts Incomplete → persistent rural inequality Result: India grew at 3.5% (“Hindu rate of growth”) — not because of bad policy, but because colonial underinvestment left no base for rapid industrialization. 5. 1991 Liberalization: A Path-Breaking Shock? Pre-1991 1991 Reform Path Dependence Persists? License Raj (inherited from British wartime controls) Dismantled Inspector Raj culture in bureaucracy remained Public sector monopolies Privatization slow PSUs still dominate oil, banking, railways Overvalued rupee Devaluation + convertibility FEMA (1999) still based on colonial FERA (1939) logic Key point: Liberalization accelerated growth on the colonial path (services, English-speaking labor) rather than creating a new manufacturing path (like China). 6. Long-Run Path-Dependent Outcomes (1947–2025) Dimension Colonial Root 2025 Outcome Economic structure Raw material exporter → deindustrialized Services-led growth (58% of GDP); manufacturing stuck at 14–16% (vs. China’s 30%) Urbanization Colonial port cities (Bombay, Calcutta, Madras) 3 mega-cities dominate; interior cities (Patna, Bhopal) lag Inequality British favored landlords + princely states Top 1% hold 40% wealth (Oxfam 2025); regional disparities (Bimaru vs. Southern states) Global integration Sterling area → Commonwealth India’s trade agreements still Commonwealth-skewed; English = global advantage 7. Counterfactual: What If No British Rule? Scenario Likely Path Difference Mughal continuity Persianate bureaucracy, inland capitals (Delhi, Lucknow) Manufacturing in Gangetic plain; different railway grid French/Dutch ports Coastal industrialization (like Southeast Asia) Earlier export-led growth No unification 500+ princely states Balkanized, slower scale economies Reality: British unified India (administratively) but distorted its economic geography. 8. Policy Implications for India (Breaking Path Dependence) Lock-In Possible Intervention Feasibility Rail gauge Gradual gauge conversion (Mission Raftaar) Ongoing (₹10 lakh crore by 2030) Bureaucratic culture Lateral entry, specialization (NITI Aayog) Resistance from IAS Manufacturing lag PLI schemes, China+1 Late-mover disadvantage English elitism Mother-tongue tech education Politically sensitive 9. Mathematical Analogy: India in Arthur’s Urn Model Urn starts: 1757 (Plassey) → British ball added. Each decade: More British institutions → increasing returns to British path. 1947: Urn is 90% British balls. Adding Indian balls (Nehru’s policies) changes marginal probability, not the lock-in. Even with 1991 reforms, inertia dominates. 10. Conclusion: India as a Path-Dependent Giant Narrative Reality (Path Dependence View) “India rose despite colonialism” India rose on the rails laid by colonialism “1947 was a fresh start” 1947 was a constrained optimization on a colonial base “China overtook due to better policy” China had no colonial lock-in; started with land reform + domestic script Final verdict: British rule didn’t just delay India’s growth—it shaped its growth path. India is not “underdeveloped” but differently developed—a services superpower on an extractive skeleton. Epilogue: As of November 17, 2025, India’s GDP (~$4.5 trillion) reflects path-dependent specialization: IT services: $250+ billion (English + colonial universities) Space/ISRO: Built on British-era surveyors + post-independence investment Manufacturing: Still chasing the colonial ghost of low-scale, low-tech industry. The empire is gone. The path remains.

 

III. Political Lock-Ins: Westminster in Sari

A. The 1935 Act in Disguise

On December 9, 1946, the Constituent Assembly meets in Delhi’s Constitution Hall. Jawaharlal Nehru, in a sherwani, moves the Objectives Resolution. Behind him hangs a portrait of George VI. The Government of India Act 1935—560 sections, 451 pages—was the British exit manual. B.R. Ambedkar, poring over it at 2 a.m., called it “a machine with strong brakes but no engine.” Yet the Constitution of India (1950) copied 250+ provisions verbatim. “We fought the British with their own laws; we govern with them too,” reflected Rajendra Prasad. Article 356 (President’s Rule) has been invoked 132 times (1951–1994), per Home Ministry data. In 1975, Indira Gandhi used it to dismiss nine state governments in one night—a colonial governor’s power in democratic clothing.

Path Dependence in India’s Political Systems and Processes: A Colonial Inheritance 1. Core Framing: Politics as the Ultimate Lock-In If economic path dependence constrained India’s growth trajectory, political path dependence constrained its governance DNA. British rule (1757–1947) was not just administrative—it was a constitutional laboratory that: Built institutions (parliament, judiciary, bureaucracy) Shaped elite expectations Created veto players and switching costs …all optimized for imperial control, not democratic representation. Key insight: India’s post-1947 political system is 80% British scaffolding with 20% Indian paint (Nehru, Ambedkar, Gandhi). The structure is third-degree path-dependent—switching to a radically different system (e.g., presidential, theocratic, or federal like the US) would collapse the state. 2. Mechanisms of Political Path Dependence Arthur’s Mechanism Colonial Application Post-Independence Lock-In Learning by doing British trained Indian elites in Westminster governance (legislative councils, municipal bodies). Parliamentary democracy retained; no serious debate on presidential system post-1947. Network externalities English as lingua franca of law, administration, and politics. English dominates Supreme Court, Lok Sabha debates, and policy documents. Regional languages = symbolic. Scale economies All-India services (ICS) created a unified bureaucratic cadre. IAS/IPS remain the steel frame; state cadres subordinate. Adaptive expectations Indian nationalists (INC) fought within British constitutional frameworks (Montagu-Chelmsford, 1935 Act). Constitution of India (1950) = Government of India Act 1935 + amendments. 3. The Colonial Political "Urn" (1757–1947) Year Event "Ball Added" to Urn Cumulative Effect 1773 Regulating Act First British parliamentary oversight Centralized control 1833 Charter Act Indian Law Commission (Macaulay) English common law 1861 Indian Councils Act Legislative councils with Indian nominees Pseudo-representation 1909 Morley-Minto Separate electorates Communal divide 1919 Montagu-Chelmsford Dyarchy in provinces Federal structure 1935 Government of India Act Provincial autonomy + federal court Blueprint for 1950 Constitution By 1947, the urn was 90% British balls. The Constituent Assembly (1946–49) could only rearrange, not replace. 4. Layer-by-Layer Lock-In Layer 1: Institutional Lock-In Colonial Institution Inherited in 1950 Path-Dependent Effect Government of India Act 1935 80% of Constitution (federal structure, governor powers, emergency provisions) Article 356 (President’s Rule) used 100+ times; states weakened. Indian Civil Service (ICS) IAS Generalist bureaucracy dominates policy; ministers = figureheads. Federal Court (1937) Supreme Court Collegium system (inherited judicial independence) → judicial activism (PILs). Separate electorates Reserved seats (SC/ST) Caste-based politics entrenched; no sunset clause. Layer 2: Process Lock-In Colonial Process Post-1947 Version Lock-In Effect First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) Retained Fragmented mandates → coalition governments (1989–2014). Parliamentary sovereignty Lok Sabha > Rajya Sabha Money bills bypass upper house → fiscal centralization. Governor as imperial agent Article 356 Center dismisses state governments (e.g., Arunachal 2016). English-language debates Official records in English Regional leaders disadvantaged; national politics = Delhi-centric. Layer 3: Elite Expectations & Political Culture Constituent Assembly: 70% lawyers, many British-trained (Nehru, Patel, Prasad). Gandhi vs. Ambedkar: Both operated within British frameworks (Swaraj = self-rule in Westminster form; Ambedkar = equality via British courts). Outcome: No serious proposal for: Panchayati raj as central governance (Gandhi’s dream) Proportional representation Presidential system Lock-in: The idea of "India" as a Westminster democracy became self-reinforcing. 5. Key Path-Dependent Political Outcomes Dimension Colonial Root 2025 Outcome Centralization British needed Delhi control for revenue/army Union list > State list; GST (2017) = fiscal centralization Coalition instability FPTP designed for two-party UK Hung parliaments (1996–2014); Modi’s 2014 majority = rare Judicial overreach British judges as imperial conscience Supreme Court strikes down laws (privacy, NJAC) Caste in politics Separate electorates → Mandal (1990) OBC politics dominates North India Emergency powers Section 93 (1935 Act) → Article 356 Used 132 times (1951–1994); norm, not exception 6. The 1975 Emergency: Path Dependence in Action Trigger: Indira Gandhi faced Allahabad HC judgment (British-style judicial review). Response: Article 352 (national emergency) — inherited from 1935 Act. Outcome: 42nd Amendment (1976) tried to break judicial lock-in but failed — Kesavananda Bharati (1973) doctrine (basic structure) restored balance. Lesson: Even authoritarian deviations revert to colonial mean. 7. Attempts to Break Political Path Dependence Reform Year Goal Outcome (Path Dependence Wins) Sarkaria Commission 1983 Reduce Article 356 Recommendations ignored Punchhi Commission 2010 Governor reforms No legislative action 2nd ARC 2005–09 Civil service reform Lateral entry blocked by IAS Electoral reforms Ongoing Proportional representation FPTP retained Why? Switching costs: Elite consensus (all parties benefit from FPTP) Veto players (bureaucracy, judiciary) Adaptive expectations (voters used to current system) 8. Counterfactual: What If No British Political Path? Scenario Political System Difference Mughal continuity Decentralized sultanates with Delhi as symbolic center Strong states, weak center French model Presidential + civil law Less judicial activism, more executive power No unification 500+ monarchies Balkanized politics (like Europe pre-1871) Reality: British unified India politically but centralized it undemocratically. 9. Mathematical Analogy: India’s Political Urn Start: 1858 (Crown Rule) → British ball. Each reform act: Adds British balls (1935 Act = +10 balls). 1947: Urn = 95% British. 1950 Constitution: Adds 5 Indian balls (fundamental rights, DPSP). Even Modi’s centralization (GST, abrogation of Article 370) uses British tools (union list, governor powers). 10. 2025 Snapshot: Political Path Dependence in Action Institution Colonial Root 2025 Reality Lok Sabha Indian Councils Act 543 seats, FPTP, English debates Rajya Sabha 1935 Act (Council of State) Indirect election, permanent house Governor Imperial agent Center’s proxy (e.g., Tamil Nadu 2025 conflicts) Election Commission British oversight of councils Independent, but appointment via collegium-like process Caste census British census (1871) 2025 caste survey → politics still defined by colonial categories 11. Policy Implications: Can India Break Political Path Dependence? Lock-In Possible Break Feasibility (2025) FPTP Proportional representation Low (benefits incumbents) IAS dominance State civil services empowered Medium (NITI Aayog pushing) Article 356 Delete or restrict Low (Center needs it) English in governance Regional language laws High (NEP 2020, but slow) 12. Conclusion: The Political Ghost of Empire Narrative Path Dependence Reality “India invented democracy” India inherited a colonial democracy and adapted it “Constitution is fully Indian” It’s a remix of the 1935 Act with Ambedkar’s rights “Federalism is strengthening” Cooperative federalism = code for centralization India’s political system is not dysfunctional—it’s path-optimized for a colonial state. The Westminster ghost walks the corridors of Parliament, Raisina Hill, and state secretariats. Epilogue (November, 2025): As PM Modi pushes One Nation, One Election, he uses British-era arguments (efficiency, cost-saving) within a 1935 Act framework. The political path bends—but never breaks.

 

B. FPTP and Coalition Chaos

In a dusty Uttar Pradesh village, 1996, a local strongman distributes ₹100 notes and a bottle of hooch to secure 38 % of votes. First-Past-The-Post, designed for two-party Britain, birthed multi-party mayhem in India. Between 1989 and 2014, no single-party majority except 1984. “FPTP amplifies regionalism and money power,” warns Yogendra Yadav. Criminal candidates rose from 12 % in 1991 to 19 % in 2024 (ADR Report). In 2014, Narendra Modi’s BJP won 282 seats with 31 % votes—a colonial voting system delivering a decisive mandate.

C. Judicial Activism as Colonial Conscience

In 1985, a frail Bandhua Mukti Morcha worker walks into the Supreme Court with a postcard. Justice P.N. Bhagwati reads it aloud: “Sir, I am a bonded laborer in a Faridabad quarry.” Public Interest Litigation (PIL) is born. British high courts were the empire’s safety valve. The Supreme Court inherited that role. “The judiciary became the last resort for the marginalized,” notes Upendra Baxi. From Vishaka Guidelines (1997) to Right to Privacy (2017), the court filled legislative voids. In 2023, it ordered air purifiers in Delhi schools—a colonial judge’s moral authority in a democratic avatar.

IV. The Balance Scorecard (November 17, 2025)

Domain	Advantage	Constraint	Net Score
Economic	English ($250 bn IT), Unity (GST), Railways	Manufacturing (14 %), Land fragmentation	+5/10
Political	Democracy, Judiciary, IAS continuity	FPTP, Article 356, Bureaucratic inertia	+6/10
Social	Reservations, Soft power	Language divide	+3/10
Overall	—	—	+5.4/10

“India is path-advantaged in the industries of the future and path-constrained in the industries of the past,” summarizes Ruchir Sharma (2024).

Path Dependence in India (as of November 17, 2025): A Balance Scorecard What colonial-era lock-ins are helping India today, and which ones are still heavy drags? Domain Path-Dependent Feature (Colonial Origin) Advantage / Constraint Strength of Effect (2025) Net Impact Score* ECONOMIC ADVANTAGES English language & elite education British-era universities, English-medium schools, ICS/IAS tradition Massive global services export ($250+ bn IT-BPM), diaspora remittances, soft power Very Strong Advantage +9/10 Unified national market & all-India institutions British unified India administratively (rail, postal, law, currency, IAS) 5th-largest economy by nominal GDP, single GST (2017), ease of inter-state business vs. fragmented neighbors Strong Advantage +8/10 Common-law legal system + independent judiciary Inherited from British courts Attracts FDI (rule of law perception), vibrant capital markets, judicial innovation (PIL, privacy rights) Moderate Advantage +6/10 Railway network (world’s 4th largest) British-built broad-gauge grid Low-cost logistics backbone; freight share rising post-Dedicated Freight Corridors Moderate Advantage +6/10 ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS Manufacturing lag & premature de-industrialization Colonial “drain” + extraction-focused infrastructure Manufacturing only ~14–15% of GDP (vs. 25–30% in peers); “jobless growth” Severe Constraint -8/10 Extractive port/rail orientation Ports & railways built for export of raw materials West-coast heavy; East-coast ports underdeveloped → supply-chain vulnerability (China+1 half-delivered) Strong Constraint -7/10 Land fragmentation & weak land records Delayed zamindari abolition + colonial revenue systems Tiny farm sizes, low agri productivity, blocks industrial land assembly Strong Constraint -7/10 Over-centralized fiscal federalism British Delhi-centric revenue model States get only ~38% of divisible pool even after 15th FC; hampers competitive federalism Moderate Constraint -5/10 POLITICAL ADVANTAGES Stable liberal democracy with Westminster scaffolding British parliamentary system, independent institutions Only large post-colonial democracy never to have military rule; peaceful power transfers Strong Advantage +8/10 Independent judiciary & public-interest litigation Colonial high courts → Supreme Court Checks executive overreach; created rights to education, clean air, privacy Moderate–Strong Advantage +7/10 All-India services (IAS/IPS) ICS legacy Provides administrative continuity & national perspective; held country together in crises Moderate Advantage +6/10 POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) with fragmented federalism British electoral system unsuited to multi-party India Chronic hung parliaments (1989–2014), money power, criminal candidates Moderate Constraint -6/10 Governor as Centre’s agent (Article 356 legacy) Direct British-era provision Periodic misuse to destabilize opposition state governments Moderate Constraint -5/10 Generalist bureaucracy & “steel frame” culture ICS tradition of amateur administrators Slow decision-making, risk aversion, resistance to specialization/lateral entry Strong Constraint -7/10 OTHER (SOCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL) Caste-based reservation system (expanded from British separate electorates) British census + separate electorates → Poona Pact → reservations Social justice & political representation for historically oppressed Mixed, but increasingly positive politically +4/10 English-Hindi duality & three-language formula Colonial English + post-independence compromise Creates north–south cultural divide; periodic language riots Mild Constraint -3/10 Overall Balance Scorecard (November 2025) Category Weighted Net Score* Remarks (2025 context) Economic +5 / 10 English + unified market are huge tailwinds; manufacturing lag is the single biggest drag. India is “services superpower, manufacturing dwarf”. Political +6 / 10 Democratic stability & judicial independence are priceless assets that Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar largely lost. Bureaucratic inertia & FPTP distortions are costs. Social/Institutional +3 / 10 Reservations empowered new political classes (OBC surge since 1990); language divide manageable. TOTAL (India 2025) +5.4 / 10 Mildly positive but fragile. The advantages are mostly “soft” (democracy, English, unity) while the constraints are “hard” (missing factories, poor land markets, slow bureaucracy). Key Takeaway (November 17, 2025) India is winning where the colonial path gave it increasing-returns assets that are rare in the developing world: English-speaking human capital Democratic stability Geographic & administrative unity India is still losing where the colonial path created physical, legal, or institutional absences: Early & deep manufacturing base (China/Vietnam/Korea got this post-1947/1950) Flexible land & labor markets Specialized technocratic state capacity The net result? India grew from ~$2.7 tn (2014) to ~$4.3–4.5 tn (2025) largely on the colonial advantages (services, democracy, unity) while the colonial constraints capped manufacturing share and kept per-capita income lower than East Asian peers. In path-dependence language: The British-Indian urn started 90% red (colonial) balls in 1947. By 2025 we have added many blue (Indian) balls, but the red balls still decide the color on manufacturing, bureaucracy, and land. The blue balls dominate on democracy, English, and national unity — and those are proving surprisingly powerful in the 21st-century knowledge economy. India is neither fully trapped nor fully free — it is path-advantaged in the industries of the future (services, pharma, space, digital) and path-constrained in the industries of the past (mass manufacturing) that still create the most jobs for its demographic bulge. That’s the 2025 balance sheet.

 

V. Breaking the Path?

In 2021, a Gujarat farmer uploads his land records to a blockchain portal—one click ends a century of disputes. PLI schemes ($26 bn) and China+1 aim to build manufacturing. NEP 2020 pushes mother-tongue tech education. One Nation One Election (proposed 2025) seeks electoral efficiency. Yet each fights inertia. “Path dependence does not mean path determinism,” cautions Douglas North (1990). “But switching costs are real.” In 2025, a Dedicated Freight Corridor train from Dadri to JNPT takes 14 hours instead of 36—a small blue ball in a red urn.

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250-Word Reflection

On November 17, 2025, at 10:25 AM IST, a Delhi metro train glides on elevated tracks—broad gauge below, English signs above. India stands at $4.5 trillion—fifth globally—yet its trajectory remains a colonial echo. The broad-gauge trains still rumble on Dalhousie’s tracks; English code still powers Silicon Valley; IAS officers still quote Northcote-Trevelyan reports. “The past is not dead; it is not even past,” Faulkner wrote, and India proves it daily.

The greatest colonial bequest was unity—linguistic, administrative, legal. Without it, India might be 30 fractious nations. The greatest curse was extraction—draining $45 trillion (Utsa Patnaik, 2018) and leaving no industrial base. China, uncolonized, built steel mills; India built IITs. One path led to factories, the other to call centers.

Yet history is not fate. South Korea (GDP per capita $35,000) was poorer than India in 1960 but escaped path dependence through land reform and export discipline. India’s demographic dividend—600 million under 25—demands the same audacity. The urn can still turn blue, but only with deliberate shocks: labor law flexibility, land digitization, bureaucratic specialization.

As Amitav Ghosh warns, “The rails are laid, but the train can still change direction—if the driver is brave.” The empire is gone. The choice is India’s.

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References

1. Arthur, W. B. (1994). Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy.
2. David, P. A. (1985). “Clio and the Economics of QWERTY.” AER Papers & Proceedings.
3. Roy, T. (2020). The Economic History of Colonialism.
4. Bagchi, A. (2010). Colonialism and Indian Economy.
5. Subramanian, A. (2019). Of Counsel.
6. NASSCOM (2025). IT-BPM Export Report.
7. World Bank (2024). Migration and Development Brief.
8. Agriculture Census (2021). GoI.
9. North, D. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance.
10. ADR Report (2024). Criminal Candidates Analysis.
11. Patnaik, U. (2018). Agrarian and Other Histories.
12. Sharma, R. (2024). The Rise and Fall of Nations (updated).