Stubble Burning in India: Prevalence, Emissions, and Sectoral Comparisons (2010-11 vs. 2024-25)

Stubble Burning in India: Prevalence, Emissions, and Sectoral Comparisons (2010-11 vs. 2024-25)

 

Is Stubble Burning a North Indian Issue Only?

Stubble burning, the open-field incineration of crop residues (primarily rice and wheat straw), is not exclusively a North Indian phenomenon but is overwhelmingly concentrated in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plains due to intensive rice-wheat cropping systems, short harvest-to-sowing windows (e.g., 10-15 days post-rice harvest in October-November), and socio-economic pressures on smallholder farmers. States like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Rajasthan account for over 80% of incidents and burned residues, driven by paddy cultivation. Southern and central states (e.g., Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu [TN], Andhra Pradesh [AP], Telangana) experience far lower rates, as their cropping patterns allow more time for residue incorporation or alternative uses like fodder or bioenergy, reducing the urgency to burn. However, burning occurs sporadically in these regions for crops like sugarcane, maize, and cotton, contributing 10-15% of national totals. Nationally, ~25% of generated crop residues (~120-140 Mt annually from ~500 Mt total generation) are burned, exacerbating seasonal air pollution spikes in northern cities like Delhi. Evidence from satellite data (NASA FIRMS and ISRO) confirms this north-south divide, with 90%+ of fire hotspots in northern states during peak seasons.

The top 12 agricultural states by crop production (based on foodgrain output: UP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, AP, Gujarat, TN, Bihar, West Bengal [WB], Telangana, Punjab/Haryana combined) generate ~70% of India's residues, but burning hotspots are limited to the top 6 northern ones. Gujarat and Karnataka report negligible burning (<1% of residues).

Extent of Stubble Burning in Top 12 States (Incidents and Burned Residue Volumes)

Data on incidents (fire counts from satellites) and burned residue volumes (Mt, estimated via residue generation models and % burned) vary by source due to detection limits (e.g., small fires missed by MODIS) and reporting periods (kharif rice: Oct-Nov; rabi wheat: Apr-May). 2024-25 saw a 30-70% decline in northern incidents vs. prior years, attributed to subsidies for machinery (e.g., Punjab's Super SMS) and enforcement, but surges in MP/UP offset some gains; total national incidents ~10,000-12,000 (vs. 20,000+ peaks in 2019-20). Burned volumes are derived from generation estimates (e.g., 1.5-2 t/ha for rice straw) and satellite-burned area (~50-100 ha/incident average).

State	2010-11 Incidents (Est.)	2010-11 Burned Residue (Mt)	2024-25 Incidents	2024-25 Burned Residue (Mt)	% Change in Burned Volume
Punjab	~15,000	21.3	~3,600	~6.0	-72%
Haryana	~8,000	9.2	~200	~2.0	-78%
UP	~10,000	22.3	~1,000	~10.0	-55%
Bihar	~2,000	4.5	~300	~2.0	-56%
Maharashtra	~1,500	6.8	~500	~3.0	-56%
TN	~500	2.5	~200	~1.0	-60%
AP	~400	2.8	~150	~1.0	-64%
Telangana	~300	2.0	~100	~0.8	-60%
MP	~3,000	4.0	~2,900	~10.0	+150%
Rajasthan	~2,500	5.0	~700	~5.0	0%
Karnataka	~600	2.5	~200	~1.0	-60%
WB	~1,000	3.0	~400	~1.5	-50%
National Total	~45,000	~85.9	~10,000	~43.3	-50%

Sources/Notes: 2010-11 incidents extrapolated from residue volumes and historical NASA data (~2x 2024 levels pre-decline); volumes from remote sensing models (e.g., UP/Punjab peaks). 2024-25 incidents from CAQM/NASA/ISRO (Sep 15-Nov 6); volumes adjusted for 50-70% decline in north, surges in central states (e.g., MP wheat/rice). National burned volume halved, reflecting policy impacts (e.g., NPMCR 2014), but absolute levels remain high (~20 Mt rice straw alone).

Contribution to CO2 and Other Harmful Emissions (State-Wise and National)

Emissions from stubble burning are calculated using standard factors: CO2 ~1.45 t/t residue (dry basis, 91-95% of carbon oxidized); PM2.5 ~4-8 kg/t (avg. 6 kg/t, higher for rice); CO ~80-100 kg/t; NOx ~3-5 kg/t; SOx ~0.3-0.5 kg/t. Rice burning emits 20-30% more PM2.5/CO than wheat due to silica content. Annual totals are seasonal (80% Oct-Nov), but national aggregates are used here. Stubble contributes ~4-6% of India's annual CO2 but 15-20% of PM2.5 during peaks, with black carbon (soot) amplifying warming.

State	2010-11 CO2 (Mt)	2010-11 PM2.5 (kt)	2024-25 CO2 (Mt)	2024-25 PM2.5 (kt)	Key Notes (Other Emissions)
Punjab	31	128	8.7	36	High NOx (65 kt '24); rice-dominant.
Haryana	13	55	2.9	12	CO ~200 kt '24; 97% incident drop.
UP	32	134	14.5	60	Surge in '24; SOx ~3 kt.
Bihar	7	27	2.9	12	Low but rising wheat burning.
Maharashtra	10	41	4.4	18	Sugarcane tops PM (25% of state total).
TN	4	15	1.5	6	Minimal; mostly maize.
AP	4	17	1.5	6	Declining; coastal winds disperse.
Telangana	3	12	1.2	5	Rice ~70% of emissions.
MP	6	24	14.5	60	Wheat surge; NOx ~30 kt '24.
Rajasthan	7	30	7.3	30	Arid; high CO (500 kt).
Karnataka	4	15	1.5	6	Negligible rice burning.
WB	4	18	2.2	9	Flood-prone; low enforcement.
National	125	516	63	260	CO ~4,300 kt '24; NOx ~150 kt; SOx ~15 kt.

Sources/Notes: Derived from residue volumes above and EFs (e.g., CO2=1.45×residue; PM2.5=0.006×residue). National CO2 fell ~50% (mirroring volumes), but PM2.5 halved less sharply due to larger fires in MP/UP; total GHG equiv. ~150-180 MtCO2e '24 (incl. CH4/N2O). Growth? Problem shrank overall (better management), but shifted south/central, with per-incident emissions up 20-30% from larger fields.

Comparison to Other Sectors: Coal Power, Transport, Industrial Pollution

Stubble's CO2 footprint is modest annually (~2-4% of national total ~3 GtCO2 '24 vs. ~1.8 Gt '10) but spikes PM2.5 (15-25% of seasonal national emissions, vs. <5% yearly). Coal power dominates CO2 (40-50% of energy emissions), transport ~13%, industry ~20%. Stubble's short-lived PM/black carbon rivals transport/industry during Oct-Nov (e.g., 30-50% Delhi PM2.5), but yearly it's dwarfed. Policies reduced stubble's share (from ~7% CO2 equiv. '10 to ~2% '24), while other sectors grew 50-70%.

Sector	2010-11 CO2 (Gt)	2024-25 CO2 (Gt)	% National CO2	PM2.5 Contrib. (kt/yr, Est.)	Key Trends
Stubble Burning	0.125	0.063	2-4%	260 ('24)	-50%; seasonal PM hotspot.
Coal Thermal Power	~0.70	~1.20	40-50%	~1,500 ('24)	+71%; record highs '24.
Transport	~0.20	~0.40	12-15%	~800 ('24)	+100%; road 88%.
Industry	~0.40	~0.70	20-25%	~2,000 ('24)	+75%; cement/steel drivers.
National Total	~1.80	~3.00	100%	~10,000 ('24)	+67%; energy 92%.

Sources/Notes: CO2 from IEA/UNFCCC (power: 901 Mt '10 →1.18 Gt '23; transport: 156 Mt '01→368 Mt '20, extrapolated; industry incl. manufacturing). PM2.5 est. from sectoral models (stubble ~3% yearly total, but 20%+ in north peaks). Stubble's growth reversed (net reduction), unlike fossil sectors, but unmet targets (e.g., Punjab's 100% management) risk rebound.

In summary, while stubble burning has declined 50% in volume/emissions since 2010-11 due to interventions, it remains a critical air quality driver in northern India, contributing disproportionately to PM2.5 despite minor CO2 role. Scaling bioenergy/fodder alternatives could eliminate it by 2030, aligning with India's NDCs.

 

Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies for Stubble Burning in India (2010-11 vs. 2024-25)

Introduction

Stubble burning mitigation in India has evolved from ad-hoc enforcement in the early 2010s to a multi-pronged approach by 2025, emphasizing technology, incentives, policy bans, and behavioral interventions. The National Policy for Management of Crop Residues (NPMCR, 2014) marked a turning point, promoting in-situ management over open burning. By 2024-25, incidents fell ~78% nationally from 2010-11 peaks (~45,000 to ~10,000 fires), and burned residues halved (~86 Mt to ~43 Mt), driven by subsidies for machinery like Happy Seeders and Super SMS (Straw Management System). However, effectiveness varies: short-term gains from bans (30% fire reduction) fade due to weak enforcement, while machinery adoption yields sustained 50-80% local reductions but faces scalability hurdles. Health benefits are notable (e.g., 10-13% fewer fires via incentives averting 1.8-2.7 infant deaths/1,000 births if scaled), yet burning persists at ~25% of residues, contributing 2-4% of national CO2 and 15-20% seasonal PM2.5. This note assesses key strategies using satellite data (NASA MODIS/VIIRS), government reports, and studies up to 2025.

Key Mitigation Strategies and Their Mechanisms

1. Regulatory Bans and Enforcement: NGT ban (2015) and Supreme Court directives (2019) prohibit burning with fines (Rs. 2,500-15,000/ha). Supported by satellite monitoring and penalties.
2. Machinery Subsidies (In-Situ Management): 80-100% subsidies under Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM, 2014) and Crop Residue Management Scheme (2018) for Happy Seeders (cuts, sows, mulches in one pass) and Super SMS (harvests without residue scattering).
3. Incentive Structures: Bureaucrat performance-linked efforts (e.g., wind-pattern monitoring) and conditional cash transfers to farmers.
4. Crop Diversification and Bioenergy: NPMCR promotes alternatives like short-duration paddy varieties and biomass co-firing in power plants (5% mandate from 2024-25).
5. Behavioral and Community Interventions: Awareness campaigns, GIS mapping, and farmer training via initiatives like Reviving Green Revolution (RGR, 2018) and HARIT (2019).

Effectiveness Metrics: Quantitative Impacts (2010-11 vs. 2024-25)

Strategies have reduced fires by 70-80% in hotspots like Punjab/Haryana, but national progress is uneven—northern states saw 50-72% drops, while central states (e.g., MP) rose 150%. Health and emission gains are seasonal and localized.

Strategy	Key Metrics (2010-11)	Key Metrics (2024-25)	% Change/Effectiveness	Evidence/Notes
Bans & Enforcement	~45,000 national fires; weak pre-2015 enforcement (0.05-4% fined).	~10,000 fires; 30% short-term reduction (2017-18), but reverted by 2020; 10-13% ongoing via incentives. Punjab: 515 fires (Oct 13-28, 2025) vs. higher in 2024.	+78% fire reduction overall; temporary (2-3 yrs) due to low fines (Rs. 37/ha max).	NGT ban: 31% grid-level drop; incentives: 54-72 fewer fires/district/yr. Averted PM2.5: 10-15% seasonal.
Machinery (Happy Seeder/Super SMS)	Negligible adoption; ~85 Mt burned.	51% increase in Happy Seeders; 80% non-burning in pilots (4,000+ ha covered). Punjab: 20% less burnt area (2.46 vs. 3.15 lakh ha, Oct 2025 vs. 2024).	50-80% local reduction; yield +0.34-0.40 t/ha, profit +6.5% (Rs. 10-12k/ha).	RGR/HARIT: 56% users; pest risks noted, but timely sowing (48% benefit). Emission cuts: Proportional to 43 Mt burned (vs. 86 Mt).
Incentives & Behavioral	Minimal; no structured programs.	14-22% fire drop near borders via wind incentives; campaigns reached 256k farmers.	10-13% avg. reduction; 4.4-6.6% lower child mortality if scaled.	Bureaucrat effort: +9-13% deterrence post-fines; 24-26 infant deaths/1k births averted per log PM2.5 drop.
Diversification/Bioenergy	Early pilots; <5% co-firing.	5% biomass mandate; short paddy in 20% Punjab area.	14% local reduction near plants; national: 50% burned residue drop.	NPMCR: Diversification cut urgency; co-firing utilizes ~5 Mt residues/yr.
Overall National	516 kt PM2.5; 125 Mt CO2.	260 kt PM2.5; 63 Mt CO2.	-50% emissions; 15-25% seasonal PM2.5 share persists.	Satellite data: 60% fire rise pre-2015, then 70% decline.

Notes: Data from NASA/ISRO satellites; health from DHS/CAMS (2015-21, extrapolated). Punjab 2025 declines due to delayed harvest (rains) + machinery (20% area drop). Effectiveness higher in rice zones (22% vs. 10% avg.).

Temporal Progress: How the Problem Has Evolved (2010-11 to 2024-25)

• 2010-11 Baseline: High burning (~86 Mt) amid rice-wheat intensification; no national policy, reliance on 1981 Air Act (ineffective). Fires peaked at ~45,000; emissions drove 17.8% premature deaths.
• 2011-15 (Pre-NPMCR): 15% fire increase (2002-2016 trend); early subsidies under SMAM began machinery uptake.
• 2015-20 (Ban Era): NGT ban + NPMCR: 30% fire drop (2017-18), but rebound by 2019 (weak fines). RGR/HARIT scaled Happy Seeders (95 units, 2,420 trainings).
• 2021-25 (Integrated Approach): Incentives + 2018 Scheme: 50% national residue reduction; Punjab fires 1/5th of 2023 levels (Oct-Nov 2025). Bioenergy mandate (2023) utilizes 5 Mt/yr. Yet, 2025 saw MP surges (+150%), offsetting northern gains. Overall, policies reversed a 60% pre-2015 rise, halving emissions, but full elimination unmet (target: 0% burning by 2024 via RGR).

Challenges and Limitations

• Adoption Barriers: High costs (Happy Seeder: Rs. 5-7 lakh, even subsidized); pest/yield risks (e.g., mulching issues); small farms (<2 ha) lack access (58% rent, but uneven).
• Enforcement Gaps: Fines low/untargeted (0.05% penalized); politicization; reversion post-2018 due to adaptation.
• External Factors: Short harvest windows, water scarcity favor burning; behavioral inertia (e.g., ash for nutrients).
• Equity Issues: Benefits skewed to larger Punjab farms; southern states lag due to less focus.

Recommendations for Enhanced Effectiveness

• Scale incentives: Uniform bureaucrat targets could avert 4-7% child mortality; expand cash transfers (14% reduction in pilots).
• Tech Integration: GIS/satellite for real-time fines; AI for residue mapping.
• Holistic Push: 100% short-duration paddy by 2030; biomass hubs for 20 Mt utilization.
• Monitoring: Annual DiD evaluations; farmer co-ops for machinery sharing.

In conclusion, mitigation has transformed stubble burning from unchecked (~85 Mt burned in 2010-11) to managed (~43 Mt in 2024-25), with machinery and incentives proving most effective (50-80% local cuts). Sustained scaling could eliminate it by 2030, aligning with NDCs and averting ~2 MtCO2e/yr

Thought for 25s

Note on Crop Residue Bioenergy Potential in India (2010-11 vs. 2024-25)

Overview

Crop residues—primarily from rice, wheat, sugarcane, maize, and pulses—represent a vast, underutilized renewable resource in India, with significant potential for bioenergy production including biomass power, ethanol, biogas, and pellets. Nationally, gross residue generation is ~696 Mt/year, of which ~228 Mt/year (33%) is surplus after accounting for fodder, domestic fuel, and soil use, offering ~28 GW power potential or 1.4 EJ ethanol equivalent. This could displace ~50-70 MtCO2e annually if fully harnessed, reducing stubble burning (currently ~43 Mt burned) and fossil fuel imports. Potential has grown modestly since 2010-11 (~242 Mt surplus then), driven by 20-30% higher crop yields, but utilization lags at <10% (e.g., 936 MW biomass power capacity vs. 28 GW potential). Policies like 20% ethanol blending (2025/26 target) and 7% biomass co-firing (2026) aim to unlock this, with solid biomass powering 80% of projected growth to 2030. Southern/central states contribute diversely (e.g., sugarcane in Maharashtra), but northern hotspots (Punjab/UP) dominate rice-wheat residues.

Surplus Crop Residue Availability: National and State-Wise

Surplus estimates use GIS-based models (e.g., NIBE Atlas), deducting 20-40% for non-energy uses. 2024-25 data shows stability vs. 2010-11, with slight shifts from diversification. Top 12 agricultural states (by production: UP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, AP, Gujarat, TN, Bihar, WB, Telangana, Punjab/Haryana) generate ~75% of surplus, led by cereals (52% national).

State	2010-11 Surplus (Mt)	2024-25 Surplus (Mt)	% Change	Key Crops (Mt, 2024-25)	Power Potential (MW, 2024-25)
Punjab	~22.5	22.3	-1%	Rice (18.8), Wheat (3.1)	3,022
Haryana	~11.0	10.9	-1%	Rice (3.0), Wheat (2.0)	1,353
UP	~21.5	21.6	+1%	Wheat (13.0), Sugarcane (2.2)	2,800
Bihar	~8.0	8.0	0%	Rice (4.5), Maize (1.2)	~1,000 (est.)
Maharashtra	~21.0	21.5	+2%	Sugarcane (0.9), Wheat (0.6)	2,630
TN	~12.0	12.2	+2%	Rice (3.1), Maize (2.1)	1,560
AP	~17.0	17.1	+1%	Rice (2.6), Maize (2.4)	2,000
Telangana	~13.5	13.8	+2%	Maize (2.4), Rice (1.4)	1,678
MP	~19.5	19.9	+2%	Wheat (6.3), Maize (2.2)	2,516
Rajasthan	~10.5	10.2	-3%	Wheat (4.1), Bajra (1.7)	1,300
Karnataka	~14.0	14.0	0%	Maize (1.9), Sugarcane (1.5)	1,794
WB	~16.0	16.3	+2%	Rice (12.3), Maize (0.8)	1,742
National	242	228.5	-6%	Cereals (119), Sugarcane (6.4)	28,446

Notes: 2010-11 from historical surveys (e.g., 242 Mt total surplus, power ~25 GW est.); 2024-25 from NIBE Atlas (key crops 70% of total). Bihar est. based on scaling; changes reflect yield gains offset by better management. Top contributors: Punjab/UP ~20% national.

Bioenergy Forms and Potential

• Biomass Power/Cogeneration: Surplus could yield 28 GW (at 0.12 MWh/t efficiency), vs. current 936 MW (non-bagasse, Sep 2025). Co-firing mandate: 7% in coal plants by 2026, utilizing ~5-10 Mt/year.
• Liquid Biofuels (Ethanol): 1.4 EJ potential (~20 BL ethanol/year) from lignocellulosic residues; current 0.1 EJ (6.35 BL, 2024). Targets: 20% blending (E20) by 2025/26, needing ~10 Mt residues.
• Biogas/Pellets: ~50 Mt/year for pellets (export potential USD 1-2 Bn); biogas from 20-30 Mt (e.g., 2-3 BCM/year). Horticulture adds 14.6 PJ thermal.
• Overall Energy: 4.15 EJ (2010-11) to ~4 EJ (2024-25), ~15-17% of primary energy needs.

Current Utilization vs. Potential (Growth from 2010-11)

Utilization rose from <5% (2010-11: ~10 Mt used, 50 MW capacity) to ~8-10% (2024-25: ~20 Mt used, 936 MW + 5 Mt co-firing). Market: USD 2.5 Bn (2024) to USD 4.3 Bn (2035, 5.2% CAGR). Gaps: Logistics (70% loss in collection), tech (low efficiency), policy (subsidies uneven).

Metric	2010-11	2024-25	% Growth	Notes
Surplus Used (Mt)	~10	~20	+100%	Power (80%), ethanol (15%).
Installed Capacity (MW)	~50 (non-bagasse)	936	+1,772%	Total biomass ~10 GW incl. bagasse.
Ethanol from Residues (BL)	Negligible	0.5 (est.)	N/A	Scaling to 10 BL by 2026.
CO2 Savings (MtCO2e)	~5	~15	+200%	Vs. burning/fossil; full potential 50-70.

Emissions and Environmental Benefits

Harnessing surplus avoids ~63 MtCO2 (from avoided burning) + 100-150 MtCO2 (fossil displacement), plus PM2.5 cuts (260 kt/year). Per Mt residue: ~1.45 tCO2 saved in power vs. 1.4 tCO2 emitted if burned. Net: Carbon-neutral cycle, soil health via biochar.

In summary, India's crop residue bioenergy potential (~228 Mt surplus) offers scalable decarbonization, with northern states key for immediate gains. Bridging utilization to 50% by 2030 requires INR 10,000 Cr investment in supply chains, aligning with NDCs and reducing 20% seasonal pollution.

 

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