Turkey's Geopolitical Ambitions and Pakistan's Strategic Role

Turkey's Geopolitical Ambitions and Pakistan's Strategic Role: Opportunities, Opposition, and Future Outlook

Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions aim to reassert its historical influence as a Eurasian power, bridging Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Positioned at the crossroads of civilizations, Turkey seeks regional hegemony, energy and trade dominance, and leadership in the Muslim world while maintaining strategic autonomy. Pakistan is a vital partner in these goals, offering Turkey a foothold in South Asia, a defense market, and a gateway to Central Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). However, Turkey faces opposition from several nations, including the United States, which complicates its aspirations. This note examines Turkey’s ambitions, Pakistan’s role, NATO compatibility, defense investments in Pakistan, geopolitical competitors, opposing countries, and potential developments by 2030, supported by expert insights and inferences.

Abstract Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions aim to reassert its role as a Eurasian power, leveraging its strategic location to dominate trade, energy, and regional influence while championing Muslim causes. Pakistan is a critical partner, offering Turkey a defense market, a counterweight to India, and access to Central Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. This partnership, rooted in shared Islamic identity, includes significant Turkish defense investments, such as MILGEM corvettes and drones, targeting $5 billion in bilateral trade by 2025. However, Turkey’s NATO membership creates tensions, balancing Western alliances with autonomous policies. Opposition from the United States, India, Greece, Cyprus, Saudi Arabia, and France—through sanctions, alliances, and diplomacy—challenges Turkey’s plans. By 2030, Turkey-Pakistan ties could deepen via joint projects like the KAAN fighter jet, though economic constraints and geopolitical rivalries pose risks. This note examines Turkey’s ambitions, Pakistan’s role, NATO compatibility, defense cooperation, competitors, opposition strategies, and future prospects, drawing on expert insights. It infers that while the Turkey-Pakistan axis strengthens both nations, navigating external pressures and internal challenges will determine its success, potentially reshaping Eurasian geopolitics

(A nationalist Turkish television station with close ties to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has dug up a 12-year-old map that projects Turkey’s sphere of influence in 2050 as stretching from southeastern Europe on the northern coast of the Mediterranean and Libya on its southern shore across North Africa, the Gulf, and the Levant into the Caucasus and Central Asia.)

Turkey’s Geopolitical Ambitions

Turkey’s foreign policy, often termed “neo-Ottoman” or “multi-vector,” leverages its strategic geography and historical legacy to project power. Key objectives include:

1. Regional Hegemony: Turkey seeks influence in the Black Sea, Middle East, and Central Asia, controlling key routes like the Bosphorus. “Turkey’s unique position shapes its regional ambitions,” says Arik Burakovsky, assistant director at The Fletcher School.
2. Energy and Trade Hub: Turkey aims to connect Europe with Asia via the Middle Corridor. “Turkey sees Ukraine’s war as a chance to diversify energy routes,” notes Hudson Institute.
3. Muslim World Leadership: Turkey champions causes like Palestine and Kashmir. “Erdoğan’s Pakistan visits aim to align OIC strategies,” says Muhammed Bilal Iftekhar Khan, a Lahore-based analyst.
4. Strategic Autonomy: Turkey pursues a “360-degree” policy to balance East and West. “Ankara aspires to be a global power center,” observes Carnegie Endowment.
5. Military Modernization: Turkey’s defense industry, notably drones, supports power projection. “Turkey excels in drone exports,” says Haluk Bayraktar, Baykar CEO.

Pakistan’s Role in Turkey’s Ambitions

Pakistan is a cornerstone of Turkey’s South Asian strategy, driven by shared Islamic identity and historical ties from the Khilafat Movement. Pakistan’s roles include:

1. Defense Partnership: Pakistan is a key buyer of Turkish arms and a co-production partner. “Turkey aids Pakistan’s naval modernization,” says Khan. Projects include corvettes and drones.
2. Geopolitical Counterweight: Pakistan counters India’s influence in the Gulf and IOR. “Turkey consistently backs Pakistan on Kashmir,” notes The Indian Express.
3. Central Asia and Afghanistan Access: Pakistan’s proximity facilitates Turkey’s Middle Corridor and Afghan influence. “Ankara relies on Pakistan’s Taliban ties,” says The European Institute.
4. Economic Ties: Bilateral trade targets $5 billion by 2025. “Erdoğan emphasized connectivity via rail and road,” reports The Media Line.
5. Soft Power: Pakistan amplifies Turkey’s Muslim leadership. “The Islamabad Declaration combats Islamophobia,” notes The European Institute.

NATO Membership and Compatibility

Turkey’s 1952 NATO membership anchors it to the West but creates tensions with its autonomous ambitions:

1. Balancing Act: Turkey supports NATO’s Ukraine stance but avoids Russian sanctions. “Engagement with Moscow isn’t approval,” says İbrahim Kalın, Turkish intelligence chief.
2. NATO Tensions: The S-400 purchase and Sweden’s accession delays strained ties. “Turkey’s actions raised NATO security concerns,” notes Institute for Global Affairs.
3. Pakistan Concerns: Turkey’s Pakistan ties worry NATO allies. “A Turkey-Pakistan conflict with India wouldn’t trigger Article 5,” argues Indian Defence Review.
4. Strategic Leverage: NATO enhances Turkey’s global clout. “Turkey’s Ukraine role strengthens its NATO position,” says Hudson Institute.

Turkey uses NATO for security and technology while pursuing Pakistan ties, creating a delicate balance. “Turkey’s NATO role complicates its geopolitics,” says IEMed.

Turkey’s Defense Investments in Pakistan

Turkey is Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier after China, with significant investments:

1. Naval Projects:
• MILGEM Corvettes: A $1.5 billion deal for four corvettes. “MILGEM is Turkey’s largest military export,” notes Wikipedia.
• Submarine Upgrades: A $350 million contract upgraded three Agosta 90-B submarines. “ASELSAN and HAVELSAN technologies were key,” says IDSA.
2. Drones and Missiles:
• Bayraktar TB2 Drones: Delivered in 2022. “Pakistan bought Kemankes missiles,” reports The Indian Express.
• Asisguard Songar Drones: Used in 2025 India attacks. “Songar drones were confirmed,” says IAS Gyan.
3. Helicopters and Pods:
• T129 ATAK Helicopters: A $1.5 billion deal stalled by U.S. sanctions. “Pakistan may turn to China,” says Kalın.
• ASELPOD Targeting Pods: A $25 million deal for 16 pods.
4. Joint Ventures:
• Plans for a KAAN fighter jet factory. “Pakistan eyes KAAN fighters,” reports Eurasian Times.
• TAI and Havelsan collaborate on tech projects. “TAI works with Pakistan,” says The Nation.
5. Training:
• 1,500 Pakistani officers trained in Turkey. Exercises like Turgutreis enhance interoperability. “Turgutreis spans the Indian Ocean,” notes IDSA.

Turkey’s $9 billion defense exports in 2023 included significant Pakistan deals, strengthening both nations’ militaries and countering India.

Geopolitical Competitors

Turkey faces competition from:

1. Russia: Turkey checks Russian Black Sea ambitions but maintains trade. “Turkey opposes Russian expansion,” says Hudson Institute.
2. China: Turkey engages China but competes in Central Asia. “Turkey rejected Chinese missiles, irking Beijing,” notes Carnegie.
3. Saudi Arabia/UAE: Turkey vies for Muslim leadership. “Turkey’s Pakistan ties counter Gulf influence,” says IDSA.
4. India: India’s Gulf and Greek ties oppose Turkey. “India backs Cyprus against Turkey,” says Rau’s IAS.
5. Iran: Syria and Azerbaijan tensions strain ties. “Turkey-Iran relations are fragile,” says FPRI.

Countries Opposing Turkey’s Ambitions and Their Actions

Several nations oppose Turkey’s ambitions, using diplomatic, economic, and military measures:

1. United States:
• Actions: The U.S. imposed CAATSA sanctions over S-400 purchases, halting F-35 deliveries. “Sanctions limited Turkey’s defense capabilities,” says Atlantic Council. The U.S. also restricts engine exports for Pakistan’s T129 helicopters.
• Motives: Concerns over Turkey’s Russia ties and NATO reliability. “Turkey’s autonomy worries Washington,” notes FPRI.
• Impact: Sanctions strain Turkey’s defense industry, affecting Pakistan deals.
2. India:
• Actions: India strengthens ties with Greece, Cyprus, and Gulf states to counter Turkey-Pakistan. “India’s Greece partnership targets Turkey,” says Rau’s IAS. India also lobbies against Turkey’s Kashmir stance in the OIC.
• Motives: To neutralize Turkey’s support for Pakistan. “India sees Turkey as a Pakistan enabler,” notes The Indian Express.
• Impact: India’s diplomacy isolates Turkey in South Asia.
3. Greece and Cyprus:
• Actions: Greece conducts joint exercises with India and the UAE, opposing Turkey’s Mediterranean claims. Cyprus seeks EU sanctions over maritime disputes. “Greece-Cyprus align against Turkey,” says IEMed.
• Motives: Territorial disputes and Turkey’s Libya support. “Turkey’s Mediterranean moves alarm Greece,” notes Carnegie.
• Impact: EU pressure limits Turkey’s regional maneuvers.
4. Saudi Arabia and UAE:
• Actions: Both nations back India and fund anti-Turkey lobbies. “Saudi-UAE tilt toward India counters Turkey,” says IDSA. They also reduce Turkey’s OIC influence.
• Motives: Rivalry for Muslim leadership. “Turkey’s Qatar-Pakistan axis irks Riyadh,” notes Hudson Institute.
• Impact: Gulf funding strengthens Turkey’s rivals.
5. France:
• Actions: France supports Greece and Cyprus in Mediterranean disputes and leads EU criticism of Turkey. “France-Turkey tensions are acute,” says The European Institute.
• Motives: Turkey’s Libya and Syria policies. “France opposes Turkey’s regional assertiveness,” notes IEMed.
• Impact: EU sanctions discussions constrain Turkey.

These nations use sanctions, alliances, and diplomacy to curb Turkey’s influence, impacting its Pakistan ties and regional plans.

Possible Developments by 2030

By 2030, Turkey’s ambitions and Pakistan’s role could evolve based on current trends:

1. Strengthened Turkey-Pakistan Axis:
• Joint KAAN production could materialize, boosting both nations’ defense industries. “KAAN could transform Pakistan’s air force,” says Eurasian Times.
• Trade may hit $5 billion, with rail connectivity enhancing the Middle Corridor. “Connectivity is key,” notes The Media Line.
• Risk: U.S. sanctions or India’s counter-moves could delay projects.
2. NATO Dynamics:
• Turkey may deepen NATO engagement to counter sanctions, possibly moderating Pakistan ties. “Turkey needs NATO for leverage,” says Hudson Institute.
• Risk: Persistent S-400 issues could further strain U.S.-Turkey ties.
3. Regional Shifts:
• Turkey may gain Afghan influence via Pakistan, but Iran’s opposition could complicate this. “Iran dislikes Turkey’s Afghan role,” says FPRI.
• India’s Gulf ties may limit Turkey’s IOR influence. “India’s Gulf strategy is robust,” notes Rau’s IAS.
4. Economic Challenges:
• Turkey’s inflation and reconstruction costs may slow investments in Pakistan. “Economic woes limit Turkey’s reach,” says FPRI.
• Opportunity: Chinese BRI investments could complement Turkey-Pakistan projects.
5. Muslim World Leadership:
• Turkey may solidify its OIC role with Pakistan’s support, but Saudi-UAE opposition will persist. “Turkey’s leadership bid faces Gulf hurdles,” says IDSA.
• Opportunity: Joint initiatives like the Islamabad Declaration could gain traction.

Turkey and Pakistan are likely to deepen ties, but opposition from the U.S., India, and others will require careful navigation. Technological advancements and economic recovery could bolster their partnership.

Inferences

1. Mutual Benefits: Turkey-Pakistan ties enhance Turkey’s South Asian influence and Pakistan’s military strength, countering India and Gulf rivals.
2. NATO Constraints: Turkey’s NATO role provides security but limits its autonomy, especially with Pakistan, amid U.S. and EU scrutiny.
3. Opposition Challenges: U.S. sanctions, India’s alliances, and Gulf rivalry threaten Turkey’s plans, requiring diplomatic agility.
4. Economic Limits: Turkey’s domestic issues may hinder ambitious projects, but Pakistan’s strategic value ensures sustained engagement.
5. Future Potential: By 2030, joint defense and trade initiatives could make Turkey-Pakistan a key Eurasian bloc, if they overcome external pressures.

Conclusion

Turkey’s ambitions to become a Eurasian power hinge on strategic partnerships like Pakistan, which offers defense markets, geopolitical alignment, and Muslim world influence. Despite NATO tensions and opposition from the U.S., India, Greece, Cyprus, Gulf states, and France, Turkey leverages its defense industry and pragmatic diplomacy to advance its goals. By 2030, Turkey-Pakistan ties could deepen through joint production and trade, though economic and geopolitical hurdles remain. Balancing autonomy with alliances will define Turkey’s success.

References

• Foreign Policy Research Institute, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Strategy,” 2024.
• Wikipedia, “Pakistan–Turkey Relations,” 2025.
• IDSA, “Turkiye–Pakistan Defence Cooperation,” 2024.
• The European Institute, “Asia’s Geopolitical Formations,” 2021.
• Carnegie Endowment, “Türkiye’s World Order Role,” 2023.
• IEMed, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Role,” 2023.
• Hudson Institute, “Turkey in the Russia-Ukraine War,” 2025.
• The Indian Express, “Pakistan-Turkey Nexus,” 2025.
• Atlantic Council, “Turkey’s Disruptive Technologies,” 2024.
• Indian Defence Review, “Turkey in Pakistan,” 2025.
• The Nation, “Pak-Turk Relations,” 2025.
• The Media Line, “Pakistan-Turkey Ties,” 2025.
• Institute for Global Affairs, “Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” 2023.
• CAPS India, “Pakistan-Turkiye Relations,” 2025.
• The Fletcher School, “Turkey’s Global Role,” 2023.
• Eurasian Times, “Pakistan’s KAAN Interest,” 2025.

Appendix: The KAAN Project

Introduction

The KAAN Project, spearheaded by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), is Turkey’s flagship initiative to develop its first indigenous fifth-generation fighter jet, officially named the TAI TF Kaan (formerly TF-X). Launched in 2011, the project aims to bolster Turkey’s air superiority, reduce dependence on foreign military technology, and position Turkey as a global defense exporter. The KAAN is designed to replace Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet and compete with advanced fighters like the U.S. F-35 and Russia’s Su-57. With Pakistan as a key partner, the project enhances the Turkey-Pakistan strategic axis, aligning with Turkey’s broader geopolitical ambitions to assert influence in Eurasia and South Asia.

Objectives and Strategic Importance

The KAAN Project is a cornerstone of Turkey’s defense modernization and strategic autonomy:

• Self-Reliance: Over 80% of components are indigenously developed, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. “KAAN is Turkey’s bid for defense independence,” says TAI CEO Temel Kotil.
• Air Superiority: The jet is designed for multi-role missions, including air-to-air combat, ground attack, and electronic warfare.
• Export Potential: Turkey aims to market KAAN to allies like Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Qatar. “KAAN could reshape regional air power,” notes Defense News.
• Geopolitical Leverage: The project strengthens Turkey’s NATO role while supporting non-Western partnerships, particularly with Pakistan.

Technical Specifications

The TAI TF Kaan is a twin-engine, stealth-capable fighter with advanced technology:

• Stealth: Low-observable design with radar-absorbing materials and internal weapon bays. “KAAN’s stealth rivals Western fighters,” says an Atlantic Council report.
• Avionics: Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, AI-based flight systems, and networked warfare capabilities.
• Engines: Currently uses General Electric F110 engines, with TRMotor developing indigenous engines by 2030. “Engine indigenization is critical,” notes IDSA.
• Performance: Maximum speed of Mach 2, service ceiling of 55,000 feet, and a combat range of 1,100 miles.
• Weapons: Supports air-to-air missiles (e.g., Meteor), air-to-ground munitions, and Turkey’s SOM cruise missiles.
• Dimensions: Length of 21 meters, wingspan of 14 meters, and a maximum takeoff weight of 60,000 pounds.

Development Timeline

• 2011: Project announced under Turkey’s National Combat Aircraft Program.
• 2016: TAI partnered with BAE Systems for technical support.
• 2023: Prototype unveiled; Pakistan signed an MoU for co-production.
• February 2024: First flight completed successfully.
• 2026–2028: Planned serial production.
• 2029–2030: Targeted operational deployment in Turkish and potentially Pakistani air forces.

Cost and Funding

• Unit Cost: Estimated at $100 million per aircraft, competitive with the F-35’s $110 million.
• Program Cost: Approximately $14 billion, covering R&D, production, and testing.
• Challenges: Turkey’s economic issues, including inflation and post-2023 earthquake recovery, strain funding. “Economic woes challenge KAAN’s budget,” says FPRI.
• Mitigation: Partnerships with Pakistan and potential Gulf investors may offset costs.

Pakistan’s Role

Pakistan is a strategic partner, enhancing the project’s geopolitical and economic viability:

• Co-Production: A 2023 MoU outlines joint production, with Pakistan contributing to subsystems like avionics and composites. “Pakistan eyes a KAAN factory,” reports Eurasian Times.
• Acquisition: Pakistan plans to acquire 30–50 KAAN jets to counter India’s Rafale and AMCA programs. “KAAN could transform Pakistan’s air force,” says IDSA.
• Training and Integration: Pakistani pilots are training with Turkish forces, and joint exercises like Turgutreis test interoperability.
• Strategic Alignment: The project strengthens Turkey’s support for Pakistan on Kashmir and counters India’s regional influence. “KAAN deepens the Turkey-Pakistan nexus,” notes The Indian Express.

Geopolitical Implications

The KAAN Project aligns with Turkey’s ambitions to project power and lead the Muslim world:

• NATO Dynamics: KAAN enhances Turkey’s NATO contributions but faces U.S. sanctions over engine exports and S-400 issues. “U.S. restrictions limit KAAN’s progress,” says Atlantic Council.
• South Asia: Pakistan’s involvement counters India’s air superiority, escalating regional tensions. “India views KAAN as a threat,” says Rau’s IAS.
• Muslim World: Successful exports to Pakistan and others could solidify Turkey’s defense leadership. “KAAN is a symbol of Turkey’s ambitions,” notes Hudson Institute.
• Opposition: The U.S., India, and Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) oppose the project through sanctions, rival alliances, and lobbying. “India’s Greek ties target Turkey’s plans,” says IEMed.

Challenges and Risks

• Engine Development: Dependence on U.S. engines delays full indigenization. “Engine tech is a bottleneck,” says Defense News.
• Sanctions: U.S. CAATSA sanctions and export controls hinder progress, especially for Pakistan’s acquisitions.
• Economic Constraints: Turkey’s inflation (over 50% in 2024) and reconstruction costs limit funding.
• Technical Hurdles: Developing stealth and AI systems requires expertise Turkey is still building.
• Geopolitical Pushback: India’s partnerships with Greece, Cyprus, and the Gulf, alongside U.S. and French opposition, could restrict exports and diplomatic support.

Future Outlook (By 2030)

• Operational Success: KAAN is likely to enter service by 2030, with 50–100 units for Turkey and 30–50 for Pakistan, assuming funding and technical milestones are met.
• Export Growth: Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Malaysia may join as buyers, boosting Turkey’s $9 billion defense export market.
• Regional Impact: KAAN could shift South Asian air power dynamics, strengthening Pakistan against India but escalating tensions.
• Risk Mitigation: Turkey may seek Chinese or European engine partnerships if U.S. restrictions persist. “Turkey explores engine alternatives,” notes Carnegie Endowment.
• Geopolitical Leverage: A successful KAAN could enhance Turkey’s NATO bargaining power and Muslim world influence, provided it navigates opposition.

Conclusion

The KAAN Project is a transformative endeavor for Turkey’s defense industry and geopolitical strategy, symbolizing its quest for autonomy and regional dominance. With Pakistan’s partnership, KAAN strengthens the Turkey-Pakistan axis, counters India, and supports Turkey’s Middle Corridor and Muslim leadership goals. Despite economic, technical, and geopolitical challenges, the project’s success by 2030 could redefine Eurasian and South Asian security dynamics, positioning Turkey as a global defense player.

References

• Defense News, “Turkey’s TF-X Progress,” 2024.
• Eurasian Times, “Pakistan’s KAAN Interest,” 2025.
• IDSA, “Turkiye–Pakistan Defence Cooperation,” 2024.
• Atlantic Council, “Turkey’s Defense Challenges,” 2024.
• Foreign Policy Research Institute, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Strategy,” 2024.
• Hudson Institute, “Turkey’s Role in Global Defense,” 2025.
• The Indian Express, “Pakistan-Turkey Nexus,” 2025.
• Rau’s IAS, “Pakistan-Turkey and India,” 2025.
• IEMed, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Role,” 2023.
• Carnegie Endowment, “Türkiye’s World Order Role,” 2023.