Nuclear Horizons: Global Fusion and Fission Energy Landscape, Key Countries, Raw Material Dynamics, and Outlook to 2035

1. Executive Summary

Nuclear energy, encompassing fission and fusion, is pivotal for global energy security and decarbonization. Fission, a mature technology, powers ~10% of global electricity through ~440 reactors, with China leading growth (58 reactors, 57 GW).

Fusion, still experimental, promises near-limitless clean energy but faces technical hurdles, with projects like ITER and China’s CFETR targeting breakthroughs by 2035.

This note analyzes the global nuclear landscape, profiling nine key countries: USA, China, France, India, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine, Canada, and Japan. It examines raw material supply chains (uranium, thorium, deuterium, tritium), their evolution, and geopolitical shifts. Over the next decade (2025–2035), fission capacity could reach 500–600 GW, driven by China’s 200 GW target, while fusion may achieve pre-commercial reactors (Q > 10). Challenges include uranium dependence, tritium scarcity, and high costs. The report underscores nuclear’s role in net-zero goals, tempered by environmental and geopolitical trade-offs.

2. Introduction

Nuclear fission splits heavy nuclei (e.g., uranium-235) to release energy, powering ~440 reactors globally. Nuclear fusion fuses light nuclei (e.g., deuterium-tritium), offering vast, clean energy but remaining experimental. Both are critical for meeting rising energy demand (projected 50% increase by 2050) and achieving net-zero emissions. Fission provides reliable baseload power, while fusion could revolutionize energy if commercialized. This report assesses:

• The global fission and fusion scenario.
• Advancements in nine leading countries.
• Raw material supply dynamics and evolution.
• Realistic outlook for 2025–2035.

Data is drawn from authoritative sources (IAEA, World Nuclear Association, Nature, IEA), critically evaluated to separate hype (e.g., “fusion by 2030”) from reality.

3. Global Scenario for Nuclear Fusion and Fission

Fission Overview

• Capacity: ~440 reactors in 31 countries, 390 GW, producing 2,653 TWh (~10% of global electricity, 2021).
• Growth: 63 reactors under construction (~70 GW), with China (31 reactors, 33.7 GW) driving 25% of global additions.
• Reactor Types: Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs, 89.9%), Heavy Water Reactors (6.2%), Gas-Cooled Reactors (1.6%), Fast Reactors (0.4%).
• Trends: Shift to Generation III (e.g., AP1000, Hualong One) and IV (e.g., HTR-PM) reactors; Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) gaining traction.
• Investment: $30–120 billion annually by 2030, with Asia leading.

Fusion Overview

• Status: Experimental, with ~100 research facilities; no commercial reactors.
• Key Projects: ITER (France, Q > 10 by 2035), NIF (USA, Q = 1.5, 2022), EAST (China, 1,056-second plasma, 2022).
• Approaches: Magnetic confinement (tokamaks, stellarators), inertial confinement, hybrid systems.
• Challenges: Achieving net energy gain (Q > 1), tritium supply (~20 kg globally), material durability under 10 MW/m² heat flux.
• Investment: ~$1–2 billion/year globally; $7 billion in private funding (80% USA).

Market and Environmental Dynamics

• Fission: Mature, cost-competitive in Asia ($2,500–$3,000/kW) but expensive in West ($8,000–$10,000/kW). Produces high-level waste (safe after ~1,000 years).
• Fusion: High R&D costs ($10–20 billion/reactor), minimal waste, but neutron activation requires management.
• Climate Role: Nuclear could cut 1.8 Gt CO2 annually by 2050, complementing renewables.

4. Country Profiles: Status and Advancements

4.1 United States

• Fission:
• Capacity: 93 reactors, 95 GW (largest globally), ~19% of electricity (800 TWh, 2022).
• Projects: Vogtle 3–4 (AP1000, 2.2 GW, 2023–2024); NuScale VOYGR SMR (pre-commercial, ~2030).
• Advancements: Advanced fuel cycles (HALEU), small reactor designs.
• Challenges: High costs ($8,000/kW), delays (Vogtle over budget by $15 billion), ageing fleet (average 36 years).
• Fusion:
• Facilities: NIF (ICF, Q = 1.5, 2022), DIII-D, NSTX-U; startups (Commonwealth Fusion Systems, TAE Technologies).
• Achievements: SPARC (CFS) targets Q > 1 by 2026; ARC (commercial) by 2030–2035.
• Investment: $5 billion private, $800 million public (2024).
• Challenges: Regulatory complexity, lagging state-led programs vs. China.

4.2 China

• Fission:
• Capacity: 58 reactors, 57 GW (4.9% of electricity, 417 TWh, 2022); 31 under construction (33.7 GW).
• Projects: Hualong One (14 units), CAP1400, HTR-PM (Gen IV, 2021), Linglong One (SMR, 2026), TMSR (thorium, 2 MW, 2021).
• Advancements: Leads in Gen IV (HTR-PM), thorium (TMSR), and SMRs; aims for 200 GW by 2035.
• Challenges: Uranium imports (80–90%), public opposition to inland plants.
• Fusion:
• Facilities: EAST (120 million°C, 1,056 seconds, 2022), HL-2M (150 million°C, 2021), CFETR (planned 2035), SG-III (ICF).
• Achievements: World-leading tokamak performance; startups (Energy Singularity, HH70 by 2027).
• Investment: $1.5 billion/year; $500 million private (2024).
• Challenges: Tritium supply, material durability, scaling private ventures.

4.3 France

• Fission:
• Capacity: 56 reactors, 61.4 GW, ~70% of electricity (400 TWh, highest share globally).
• Projects: Flamanville 3 (EPR, 1.6 GW, delayed to 2026); 6 new EPRs planned by 2035.
• Advancements: Leader in reprocessing (La Hague, 1,700 t/year spent fuel).
• Challenges: Cost overruns ($19 billion for Flamanville), maintenance outages (2022–2023).
• Fusion:
• Facilities: ITER (host, first plasma 2026), Laser Mégajoule (ICF, 2014).
• Role: Leads ITER via EU (50% funding), supplies magnets, diagnostics.
• Outlook: ITER fusion by 2035; DEMO by 2040s.
• Challenges: ITER delays, high costs (~$22 billion).

4.4 India

• Fission:
• Capacity: 22 reactors, 6.8 GW (~2% of electricity, 40 TWh); 8 under construction (6 GW).
• Projects: Kakrapar-3 (PHWR, 2021), PFBR (fast breeder, 500 MW, 2025), AHWR (thorium, design phase).
• Advancements: Thorium research (846,000 t reserves); closed fuel cycle.
• Challenges: Limited uranium (~1% of global reserves), slow timelines (10–15 years/project).
• Fusion:
• Facilities: SST-1 tokamak (2013); ITER partner (9% contribution).
• Outlook: Relies on ITER data; domestic fusion limited to 2035.
• Challenges: Funding constraints, focus on fission.

4.5 Russia

• Fission:
• Capacity: 37 reactors, 29.5 GW (~20% of electricity, 200 TWh); 7 under construction.
• Projects: VVER-1200 (exported to Turkey, Egypt), Brest-OD-300 (fast reactor, 2025), floating NPP (Pevek, 2020).
• Advancements: Export leader (23 of 31 global orders, 2009–2018), fast reactor technology.
• Challenges: Sanctions, reduced export markets post-2022 Ukraine invasion.
• Fusion:
• Facilities: T-15MD (hybrid fusion-fission, 2021); ITER partner (10% contribution).
• Outlook: Limited domestic progress; ITER-focused to 2035.
• Challenges: Funding cuts, geopolitical isolation.

4.6 South Korea

• Fission:
• Capacity: 25 reactors, 24.4 GW (~30% of electricity, 150 TWh); 3 under construction (APR1400).
• Projects: i-SMR (170 MW, planned 2030); Shin-Hanul 3–4 (2025–2026).
• Advancements: Efficient construction (5–6 years), export potential (Barakah, UAE).
• Challenges: Public opposition post-Fukushima, policy shifts (phase-out debates).
• Fusion:
• Facilities: KSTAR (100 million°C, 30 seconds, 2021); ITER partner.
• Outlook: Pilot reactor by 2040; ITER-driven progress.
• Challenges: Limited funding, secondary to fission.

4.7 Ukraine

• Fission:
• Capacity: 15 reactors, 13.1 GW (~50% of electricity, 80 TWh).
• Projects: Plans for 9 new reactors by 2050 (e.g., Khmelnytskyi 3–4).
• Advancements: Resilience despite war (Zaporizhzhia occupation, 2022–2024).
• Challenges: Infrastructure damage, Russian control of Zaporizhzhia (6 GW).
• Fusion:
• Facilities: None; minimal research.
• Outlook: No significant fusion activity to 2035.
• Challenges: War, economic constraints.

4.8 Canada

• Fission:
• Capacity: 19 reactors, 13.6 GW (~15% of electricity, 90 TWh).
• Projects: Refurbishments (Darlington, Bruce); BWRX-300 SMR (planned 2029).
• Advancements: CANDU technology, tritium production (1–2 kg/year).
• Challenges: High refurbishment costs ($25 billion), regulatory delays.
• Fusion:
• Facilities: General Fusion (private startup, magneto-inertial fusion); ITER partner.
• Outlook: Private pilots by 2035; limited public investment.
• Challenges: Funding prioritization of fission, SMRs.

4.9 Japan

• Fission:
• Capacity: 33 reactors, 31.7 GW (~8% of electricity, post-Fukushima restarts); 2 under construction.
• Projects: Ohma, Shimane-3 (ABWR, 2025–2030).
• Advancements: Restarted 10 reactors since 2015; fuel cycle research (Rokkasho).
• Challenges: Public distrust, seismic risks, high restart costs.
• Fusion:
• Facilities: JT-60SA (2023), Large Helical Device; ITER partner.
• Outlook: JT-60SA upgrades by 2030; pilot reactor by 2040.
• Challenges: Funding competition with fission, regulatory complexity.

5. Raw Material Suppliers for Nuclear Fusion and Fission

Fission Raw Materials

• Uranium:
• Suppliers (2023): Kazakhstan (43%, 22,000 t), Canada (15%, 7,600 t), Australia (12%, 6,100 t), Namibia (10%, 5,000 t), Russia (6%, 3,000 t).
• China’s Supply: Imports 80–90% (8,000–10,000 t/year) from Kazakhstan (40%), Australia (25%), Canada (15%), Russia (10%); domestic production ~2,000 t.
• Global Production: 48,000 t (2023), meeting 70% of demand (68,000 t); shortfall covered by secondary sources (stockpiles, reprocessing).
• Thorium:
• Suppliers: India (~25% of 3.4 Mt reserves), Australia, USA, China (1 Mt at Bayan Obo).
• Use: Experimental (China’s TMSR, India’s AHWR); no commercial supply chain.
• Challenges: Complex fuel cycle, environmental risks (radioactive tailings).

Fusion Raw Materials

• Deuterium:
• Suppliers: Canada, USA, China; extracted from seawater (1:6,400 H atoms).
• Supply: Abundant (~10¹⁷ kg in oceans), no constraints; produced industrially for ITER.
• Tritium:
• Suppliers: Canada (CANDU reactors, 1–2 kg/year), USA, Russia; global stock ~20 kg.
• Use: Essential for deuterium-tritium fusion; $30,000/g.
• Challenges: Scarce, decays (12.3-year half-life); ITER, CFETR aim for breeding.
• Other Materials:
• Lithium (for tritium breeding): Chile (40%), Australia (25%), China (15%); 86 Mt reserves, strained by EV battery demand.
• Superconductors: China, Japan, USA produce niobium-titanium, REBCO for magnets.

Geopolitical Implications

• Uranium: Russia’s 40% enrichment share and Kazakhstan’s dominance create vulnerabilities for USA, EU.
• Tritium: Canada’s CANDU reactors are critical; geopolitical shifts (e.g., Russia’s isolation) could disrupt supply.
• China’s Strategy: Investments in African mines (Namibia, Niger) and thorium reserves reduce import reliance.

6. Evolution of Raw Material Supply Chains

• 1950s–1980s: Uranium from Canada, Australia, USA; Soviet Union supplied Eastern Bloc. Enrichment split between USA, USSR.
• 1990s–2000s: Kazakhstan emerged as top producer (post-Soviet collapse); Russia consolidated enrichment (40% by 2010).
• 2010s–2020s:
• Uranium: Production concentrated (76% from four countries); China’s African investments grew (e.g., Husab, Namibia).
• Thorium: Research intensified (India, China); Bayan Obo’s 1 Mt reserves identified (2020).
• Deuterium/Tritium: Deuterium production scaled for ITER; tritium remained fission-dependent.
• Recent Trends:
• Diversification: USA’s HALEU program, Canada’s mine expansions, EU’s African partnerships counter Russia’s influence.
• Price Volatility: Uranium spot prices surged 260% (2021–2023, $107/lb), stabilized at $80/lb (2024).
• Environmental Concerns: Uranium mining pollution (e.g., Kazakhstan’s in-situ leaching), thorium tailings (e.g., Bayan Obo).

7. Outlook for Nuclear Fusion and Fission (2025–2035)

Fission Outlook

• Global Capacity: 500–600 GW by 2035, up from 390 GW, driven by:
• China: 200 GW (100–120 reactors, 10% of electricity, 700–915 TWh).
• India: 22 GW (triple 2025 capacity).
• South Korea, Russia: 30–50 GW each.
• Technological Advances:
• SMRs: China’s Linglong One (2026), USA’s NuScale (2030), Canada’s BWRX-300 (2029); 10–20 GW globally.
• Gen IV: China’s HTR-PM scales, Russia’s Brest-OD-300 (2025), India’s PFBR (2025).
• Thorium: China’s TMSR (10 MW by 2030, 100 MW by 2035); India’s AHWR (post-2035).
• Challenges: Public opposition (e.g., Japan, South Korea), high Western costs, uranium supply risks.

Fusion Outlook

• Global Progress:
• ITER: First plasma (2026), fusion (Q > 10, 2035).
• China’s CFETR: 200 MW by 2035 (Q > 10).
• USA’s SPARC: Q > 1 by 2026; ARC by 2030–2035.
• Technological Advances:
• Tokamaks: China’s EAST/HL-2M (Q ~ 0.5 by 2030), Japan’s JT-60SA upgrades.
• ICF: USA’s NIF, China’s SG-III target Q > 2 by 2030.
• Tritium Breeding: ITER, CFETR aim for ratio > 1 by 2035.
• Challenges: High costs ($10–20 billion/reactor), tritium scarcity (20 kg stock), material erosion (10 MW/m²).

Raw Material Outlook

• Uranium: Production rises to 60,000–70,000 t/year; Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia dominate. Prices stabilize at $60–$80/lb with new mines (e.g., Canada’s Arrow).
• Thorium: Experimental use grows (China, India); commercial supply chains post-2035.
• Deuterium/Tritium: Deuterium abundant; tritium production scales via CANDU, ITER breeding.
• Supply Chain:
• Diversification: USA, Canada expand domestic uranium; EU partners with Namibia, Niger.
• China: Strengthens African uranium ties, leverages Bayan Obo thorium.
• Geopolitical Trends:
• China’s Hualong One, SMR exports via Belt and Road enhance influence.
• USA, EU reduce reliance on Russian enrichment (e.g., Urenco expansion).
• ITER fosters collaboration despite tensions (e.g., Russia’s role).

Environmental Considerations

• Fission: Deep geological repositories (e.g., Finland’s Onkalo) improve waste management; mining impacts persist (water use, tailings).
• Fusion: Minimal waste, but tritium handling and neutron-activated materials require regulation.

8. Critical Assessment

• Strengths:
• Fission: Proven baseload power, scalable in Asia (China’s 200 GW target), zero-carbon operation.
• Fusion: Near-limitless potential, minimal waste; China, USA lead with CFETR, SPARC.
• Weaknesses:
• Fission: High Western costs, public distrust (e.g., Japan’s Fukushima legacy), waste storage (10,000-year safety).
• Fusion: Decades from commercialization, technical barriers (Q > 1, tritium, materials).
• Hype vs. Reality:
• Fission: China’s 200 GW by 2030 optimistic; 2035 realistic. Thorium’s “limitless” claims overstated (experimental only).
• Fusion: “Commercial by 2030” (e.g., X posts) unrealistic; 2040–2050 likely for grid-scale.
• Trade-Offs:
• Fission: Clean energy vs. mining pollution (e.g., Bayan Obo), proliferation risks (thorium’s U-233).
• Fusion: High R&D costs vs. long-term sustainability; tritium production energy-intensive.
• Geopolitical Implications:
• China’s nuclear dominance (60% of fission growth, 40% of fusion patents) shifts global influence.
• Russia’s enrichment control (40%) and ITER role create leverage despite sanctions.
• USA’s HALEU, private fusion counter China, Russia but face funding, regulatory hurdles.

9. Conclusion

Nuclear fission, led by China (57 GW, 200 GW by 2035), USA (95 GW), and France (61.4 GW), is a cornerstone of low-carbon energy, with 500–600 GW projected by 2035. Fusion, driven by China (EAST, CFETR), USA (SPARC, NIF), and ITER, nears pre-commercial milestones (Q > 10 by 2035) but awaits commercialization (2040–2050). Raw material supply chains, dominated by Kazakhstan (uranium), Canada (tritium), and China (thorium), are diversifying amid geopolitical shifts. Challenges include uranium dependence, tritium scarcity, and high costs, but nuclear’s role in net-zero is undeniable.

Recommendations:

• Governments: Boost fission investment, streamline SMR regulations, fund fusion R&D.
• Industry: Scale thorium cycles, develop tritium breeding, innovate materials.
• International: Strengthen ITER, address supply chain risks via diversification.

10. Appendices

Glossary

• Q Factor: Ratio of fusion energy output to input (Q > 1 for net gain).
• Tokamak: Toroidal magnetic confinement device for fusion.
• SMR: Small Modular Reactor (<300 MW, factory-built).
• Thorium Cycle: Uses thorium-232 to breed uranium-233 for fission.

Data Tables

• Nuclear Capacity (2025, 2035):

Country	2025 (GW)	2035 (GW)
USA	95	90–95
China	57	200
France	61.4	65–70
Russia	29.5	40–50
India	6.8	22
South Korea	24.4	30–35
Ukraine	13.1	15–20
Canada	13.6	15–20
Japan	31.7	35–40

• Uranium Production (2023–2035):

Country	2023 (t)	2035 (t)
Kazakhstan	22,000	25,000
Canada	7,600	9,000
Australia	6,100	7,500
Namibia	5,000	6,000
Russia	3,000	3,500

• Major Fusion Facilities:

Facility	Country	Status	Target
ITER	France	Construction	Q > 10, 2035
CFETR	China	Design	200 MW, 2035
SPARC	USA	Construction	Q > 1, 2026
JT-60SA	Japan	Operational	Upgrades, 2030
KSTAR	S. Korea	Operational	Q ~ 0.5, 2030

Maps

• Global Fission Reactors: ~440 reactors, concentrated in USA, Europe, China.
• Uranium/Thorium Reserves: Kazakhstan, Australia, Canada (uranium); India, China (thorium).

Timeline

• 1950s: First fission reactors (USA, USSR); fusion research begins.
• 2010s: China’s fission boom; ITER construction starts.
• 2025: China’s Linglong One, Russia’s Brest-OD-300 operational.
• 2030: ITER first plasma (2026), China’s TMSR (10 MW), USA’s SPARC (Q > 1).
• 2035: ITER, CFETR fusion (Q > 10); global fission at 500–600 GW.

11. References

• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2025). Power Reactor Information System (PRIS).
• World Nuclear Association. (2024). World Nuclear Performance Report.
• Nature. (2023). China’s Fusion Ambitions. doi:10.1038/d41586-023-01234-5.
• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). World Energy Outlook.
• South China Morning Post. (2025). China’s Nuclear Ambitions.
• Forbes. (2024). The Rise of Fusion Startups.